No major change likely before 2000

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia can expect more democratization of its economic and political life only when a new generation assumes power after the turn of the century, experts believe.

Emil Salim, a former cabinet minister and now a professor at the University of Indonesia, ruled out the possibility of major political changes in the near future as long as the so called 45- generation is still in power.

"Don't expect any political change next year or in 1998, but in 2005, when the new generation, the 66 generation, assumes power with the spirit of reformation," Emil said at a seminar, on national development hosted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

The 45-generation refers to those who struggled for Indonesia's independence in 1945 and the 66-generation to those who struggled for the establishment of the New Order administration under President Soeharto in 1966 in the aftermath of the attempted communist coup in September, 1965.

Emil -- who served several terms in previous cabinets, lastly with the portfolio of the population and environment -- believes that the new generation, when it assumes power, will pave the way for drastic political changes resulting in greater democratization.

He suggested that those in power should now implement massive deregulation measures not only in the economic sector but also in the political field to pave the way for the new generation to assume power.

"Economic and political deregulation are two sides of the same coin," Emil said.

He noted that the current success of Indonesia's economic development has been achieved partly through a number of economic reforms, which have eventually opened up the country's economy and partially integrated it with the global economy.

The former minister suggested that Indonesia should further improve the quality of its human resources, reappraise its macroeconomic policy and strengthen its economic structure to maintain its high growth momentum.

Such policy adjustments, according to Emil, will enable the economy to grow by at least seven percent per annum, thereby doubling the country's gross domestic product from last year's level of some Rp 400 trillion (US$170 billion) by 2005.

By that time, Emil said, Indonesia's economic structure will be dominated by the manufacturing sector, supported by trading and financial services. And the development process, he continued, will take place in a healthy democratic political environment, with respect given to universal values.

Sharing Emil's view, economist Sjahrir noted that Indonesia had successfully transformed its economy into a world-market economy but failed to upgrade its political infrastructure.

"While our economy is going global, our politics are still in the era of Jurassic Park," Sjahrir said in reference to a film set in the age of the dinosaurs.

Sjahrir noted that such an old-fashioned political structure had created an oligopoly.

He noted that last month's rioting in the city, which left four people dead and tens of others injured and tens of millions of dollars in material losses, was partly triggered by people's discontent over the widening gap between the rich and the poor and between the economic and political development.

The rioting proves that the emphasis on political stability has failed to accommodate the people's dynamism as the current system prefers a status quo to any political change.

Such a policy has made the government defensive and reactive towards international pressures, especially with regard to issues on improved democratization, human rights, the environment and labor standards, Sjahrir said.

Emil, however, believed that the current sweeping era of social, economic and political globalization would eventually force Indonesia to accept such universal values. (rid)

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