No flood, only medium rain combined with high tide: BMG

Leony Aurora, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Jakartans may enjoy one more day of dry weather, but according to the Meteorology and Geophysics Agency's (BMG) latest weather forecast, Wednesday should see light drizzle and/or medium rain.

Even though there will be a full moon, prompting the highest tide of the month, no flooding is expected if that is combined with a small amount of rain, said a forecaster on duty at the BMG.

Medium rain is categorized as daily precipitation of between 20 millimeters and 50 mm. By comparison, the heavy rain that inundated parts of Jakarta on New Year's eve was above 100 mm.

"There are a lot of factors that come into play for it to rain exceptionally hard," said Dedi Sucahyono of the BMG. Aside from the forming of clouds, the low and high pressure that determined wind direction were also crucial, he said.

Within two days, low pressure over the Indian Ocean will result in rain on most of Java.

"If the clouds are saturated, rain will fall," explained Dedi.

Therefore, people must prepared. BMG has forecast rainfall to be higher than normal this month, but has not given a specific number. The normal range for rainfall in January in Jakarta is between 300 mm and 500 mm, depending on the area.

During the Great Flood of January 2002, the rainfall ranged from 582 mm to 1,094 mm, while in 2001 it was between 157 mm and 851 mm.

Although the Jakarta administration has received ample warning, little has been done to prevent the annual floods.

The Flood Mitigation Agency has, however, distributed cellular phones, pre-paid cards and two-way radios to 186 heads of flood- prone subdistricts. But such measures are questionable as the bureaucratic chain of command may delay quick responses.

The administration was also questioned over the Rp 10 million (US$1,176) relief fund that was said to be given to flood-prone districts but failed to reach citizens. For example, residents of Penjaringan subdistrict in North Jakarta, who were inundated around the New Year, said that there was no emergency shelter nor public kitchen in the area.