No end in sight on road to peace

By Lucien Rajakarunanayake

COLOMBO: Sri Lanka's President Chandrika Kumaratunga is nothing if not determined in the labyrinthine politics of her island homeland.

Even a botched attempt on her life, which left her injured and for the moment contained behind a tight security screen, has not quenched her ambition to reach a peace deal with the island's Tamil community.

Her chosen vehicle has been a new constitution aimed at giving equal rights to the Tamils and seeking a negotiated end to the war with the separatist Liberation Tamil Tigers (LTTE). But the ride to date has been hugely bumpy and the end of the road is still out of sight.

Having failed in recent weeks to secure the two thirds majority needed in the Sri Lankan Parliament to amend the present constitution Kumaratunga is now pinning her hopes on the outcome the country's General Election to be held on Oct. 10.

And her party machine will be looking at the numbers very carefully. Earlier this year Kumaratunga thought she had the constitutional change in the bag. She needed 16 votes from the opposition United National Party (UNP) which negotiated with her for nearly five months, agreed, eventually, a document which it called a historic consensus only to throw the whole thing back in her face in an abrupt about turn.

Observers muttered darkly about bribery, cash inducements and other forms of political skuldruggery but what is real is that the UNP U-turn came after its leader Ranil Wickremasinghe met with a high ranking contact of the LTTE in Singapore.

President Kumaratunga remains unabashed. In a television interview after the UNP scuppered her plans she said she would have the new constitution adopted within two months of her People's Alliance party winning the October election -- fighting talk from a President whose government has only had a single vote majority in parliament the past six years.

There is no doubt the government has lost some of the popularity it had in 1994, when Chandrika Kumaratunga took power ending 17 years of UNP rule, but the president still has her own appeal which she hopes will help restore the fortunes of the PA. The minority Sri Lanka Muslim Congress has already said it would support the PA and although the Tamil political parties in parliament have yet to decide what role to play it will be difficult for them to oppose the president after the effort she made on behalf of the Tamil community.

But the Tamil parties remain on an uncertain and dangerous path. Those living in the areas in north and east Sri Lanka controlled by the separatists live in the shadow of the gun. The LTTE could force Tamils not to contest the elections unless they pledge support for the separatist cause or the gunmen could stop people voting altogether or force them to vote a certain way, almost certainly in favor of the UNP.

President Kumaratunga's main strengths are her own personal popularity and the weakness of her main rival, the UNP leader Ranil Wickremasinghe, who in recent years has led his party to defeat in seven local government and provincial elections and in his failed bid for the presidency. His position is shaky with his leadership now challenged from within the ranks of his own party.

However Chandrika Kumaratunga may not be able to exploit her personal popularity to the full ahead of October's poll. Since the LTTE tried to kill her, just three days before the presidential election last December, tight security has virtually confined her to her official residence which means with rallies and meet-the-people walkabouts ruled out she will have to campaign, via the electronic media, specially TV.

While the spin doctors argue the restrictions on her freedom could win a sympathy vote the UNP is putting in the work on bread and butter issues and hopes to capitalize on the rising cost of living and the devaluation of the Sri Lankan rupee. It will also target the Kumaratunga administration over corruption and the failure of its economic policies.

Bread and butter perhaps but there is substantial public opinion that accepts the economic costs of the war against the LTTE and having now pushed the LTTE forces back from their positions in Jaffna further military gains would certainly put the President and her Government right on top. However, in the absence of such a success, the outcome of the October poll remains for the moment too close to call.

-- Observer News Service