N.Korea seen bluffing over missile test

By Teruaki Ueno

TOKYO (Reuters): North Korea will push its threat to test-fire a missile that could hit parts of the United States, but the communist nation has little to gain by actually pressing the button, Korea watchers say.

Experts in Tokyo say North Korea, strapped for cash and gripped by famine, would be risking a new freeze in relations with Washington and the loss of much-needed economic help if it went ahead with a launch.

"I don't think North Korea will do it," said Noriyuki Suzuki, chief analyst at Tokyo-based Radiopress news agency which specializes in monitoring North Korean broadcasts. "For North Korea, there is nothing to gain from test-firing missiles."

Media reports last week said Pyongyang was preparing to test- fire a new Taepodong-2 long-range missile believed capable of reaching Alaska.

North Korea stunned the region last year when it fired a three-stage rocket, part of which passed over northern Japan and landed off its Pacific Ocean coast.

But analysts said a new test launch would threaten what little diplomatic goodwill there is for the reclusive Pyongyang regime and give a major boost to policy hawks in the United States, Japan and South Korea.

At a time when the North may be set to benefit from a recent diplomatic thaw with the United States, such a move seems unlikely.

After a milestone visit to Pyongyang last month, U.S. presidential envoy William Perry said he had explored with the Stalinist state the possibility of a major expansion of U.S. relations if it abandoned its nuclear and missile programs.

Suzuki said Perry, who was reviewing U.S. policy on North Korea, had issued a stern warning to Pyongyang against any move to launch missiles and explained the possible consequences.

If North Korea defies the warning and fires a missile, the United States could remove the "carrots" from its proposed new approach to Pyongyang, which has yet to be fleshed out, and stiffen its stance, he said.

However, North Korea, which analysts say exports missiles and missile technology worth up to US$1 billion each year, still has an interest in improving its missile technology in order to strengthen its hand in talks with Washington.

"The North Korean leaders may be thinking that unless their country improves its missile capabilities, it will never win serious attention from the United States," said Hajime Izumi, a Korea expert at Shizuoka Prefectural University near Tokyo.

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) ranks North Korea as the world's biggest exporter of ballistic missiles and related technology. Defense analysts say North Korea has sold missiles and missile technology to Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and Syria, posing threats mainly to Israel.

Izumi said if Pyongyang successfully developed long-range missiles, not only the United States but also Europe would be threatened and the value of North Korean missiles would be raised on international weapons markets.

A recent CIA report to Congress said that with further development, a version of the Taepodong missile could reach parts of the U.S. west coast.

"North Korea wants eventually to play its last diplomatic card by placing nuclear warheads on its missiles so it can secure more concessions from the United States," Izumi said.