Next VP civilian or military?

Next VP civilian or military?

Amir Santoso

JAKARTA (JP): The statement that Juwono Sudarsono, deputy
governor of the National Resilience Institute (Lemhanas), made to
the effect that civilians will not have the capability to serve
as Indonesian's president for at least another five years has
become a controversial issue. This statement, which is the same
as one he made a few years ago, has provoked a wide range of
reactions in view of its proximity to the holding of the general
assembly of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

This civilian-military issue is increasingly gaining momentum
with the appearance of several names as likely candidates for
vice president. The name of B.J. Habibie has turned up among the
civilians while Gen. (ret.) Hartono, (Air Marshal, ret.)
Ginandjar Kartasasmita and even Gen. Wiranto have been mentioned
as candidates from the military. No one can be certain who will
be the vice president because the person must be elected by the
MPR and gain the president's approval. It is not easy to guess
who the MPR will elect and who the president wishes to be vice
president.

Often, guesswork proves wrong. It may well be that the next
vice president will be one that has until now never been taken
into account. In fact, there was a precedent to this when Gen.
(ret.) Umar Wirahadikusumah became vice president out of the
blue. Nevertheless, rivalry to become vice president is going on
behind the scenes.

A distinction must be made between the issue of president and
that of vice president. For the presidency, it seems that all
political groups are in agreement that President Soeharto will be
reelected. The position of the vice president, however, has
become controversial because whoever will be elected vice
president for the next term may become the crown prince to
succeed Soeharto.

Juwono is right when he says that most civilian elites are
not capable of managing their own institutions. In some
organizations, leadership election is often conducted unfairly,
leading, therefore, to unrest and counter leadership.
Inefficiency and lack of discipline are easily detectable among
civilians. Military circles, Juwono said, are different
because of their excellent organization -- the best in Indonesia
-- efficiency and a high sense of discipline. The military has
the tradition to manage their organization well. Heterogeneous
Indonesia, he said, needs a leader with excellent managerial
skills.

It is unwise, however, to generalize that all civilians lack
leadership capability, especially if the leadership criterion is
only based on managerial skills. It is true that a leader must be
well-versed in this skill but in the case of heterogeneous
Indonesia a leader must also enjoy the support of most groups.

To me, leadership is not a matter of institution but rather
one of individual capability. It is inappropriate to say that all
civilians are void of leadership capacity. It is equally
erroneous to say that all military officers are capable of good
leadership. Indonesia is still developing and certainly needs a
strong and legitimate leader, who enjoys the support of most
social groups, and that of the Armed Forces.

The support that the Armed Forces extend to someone will
determine his success in being a leader in view of the dominant
position that the Armed Forces occupy as a political group. The
question is whether or not the Armed Forces will always opt for a
military man as a leader? It may not always be so, although in
all likelihood they will continue to do so in the near future. It
is not impossible for a civilian to assume leadership as long as
he can reassure the Armed Forces that their political interests
will not be harmed.

The crux of the matter is whether or not there is now a
civilian figure that fits this criterion. Likewise, is there now
a military man who is supported by both the Armed Forces and
society.

Although Juwono's opinion is based on civilians lack of
managerial capability, the public suspects that this statement is
based on political partiality. As vice governor of Lemhanas,
which is a military educational institution, Juwono may share
a common opinion with some other military officers who harbor a
dislike of a civilian being nominated vice president.

A vice presidential candidate from the Armed Forces may not
find it easy to gather civilian support unless he approaches the
main civilian groups. It is therefore of great importance to
whoever wishes to be a leader to enjoy the support of as many
groups as possible and especially, in the case of a vice
president, that of the president.

The writer is a lecturer of political science at the
University of Indonesia and director of the post-graduate program
at Jayabaya University.

Window: It is not impossible for a civilian to assume leadership
as long as he can reassure the Armed Forces that their political
interests will not be harmed.