Next VP civilian or military?

Amir Santoso

JAKARTA (JP): The statement that Juwono Sudarsono, deputy governor of the National Resilience Institute (Lemhanas), made to the effect that civilians will not have the capability to serve as Indonesian's president for at least another five years has become a controversial issue. This statement, which is the same as one he made a few years ago, has provoked a wide range of reactions in view of its proximity to the holding of the general assembly of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).

This civilian-military issue is increasingly gaining momentum with the appearance of several names as likely candidates for vice president. The name of B.J. Habibie has turned up among the civilians while Gen. (ret.) Hartono, (Air Marshal, ret.) Ginandjar Kartasasmita and even Gen. Wiranto have been mentioned as candidates from the military. No one can be certain who will be the vice president because the person must be elected by the MPR and gain the president's approval. It is not easy to guess who the MPR will elect and who the president wishes to be vice president.

Often, guesswork proves wrong. It may well be that the next vice president will be one that has until now never been taken into account. In fact, there was a precedent to this when Gen. (ret.) Umar Wirahadikusumah became vice president out of the blue. Nevertheless, rivalry to become vice president is going on behind the scenes.

A distinction must be made between the issue of president and that of vice president. For the presidency, it seems that all political groups are in agreement that President Soeharto will be reelected. The position of the vice president, however, has become controversial because whoever will be elected vice president for the next term may become the crown prince to succeed Soeharto.

Juwono is right when he says that most civilian elites are not capable of managing their own institutions. In some organizations, leadership election is often conducted unfairly, leading, therefore, to unrest and counter leadership. Inefficiency and lack of discipline are easily detectable among civilians. Military circles, Juwono said, are different because of their excellent organization -- the best in Indonesia -- efficiency and a high sense of discipline. The military has the tradition to manage their organization well. Heterogeneous Indonesia, he said, needs a leader with excellent managerial skills.

It is unwise, however, to generalize that all civilians lack leadership capability, especially if the leadership criterion is only based on managerial skills. It is true that a leader must be well-versed in this skill but in the case of heterogeneous Indonesia a leader must also enjoy the support of most groups.

To me, leadership is not a matter of institution but rather one of individual capability. It is inappropriate to say that all civilians are void of leadership capacity. It is equally erroneous to say that all military officers are capable of good leadership. Indonesia is still developing and certainly needs a strong and legitimate leader, who enjoys the support of most social groups, and that of the Armed Forces.

The support that the Armed Forces extend to someone will determine his success in being a leader in view of the dominant position that the Armed Forces occupy as a political group. The question is whether or not the Armed Forces will always opt for a military man as a leader? It may not always be so, although in all likelihood they will continue to do so in the near future. It is not impossible for a civilian to assume leadership as long as he can reassure the Armed Forces that their political interests will not be harmed.

The crux of the matter is whether or not there is now a civilian figure that fits this criterion. Likewise, is there now a military man who is supported by both the Armed Forces and society.

Although Juwono's opinion is based on civilians lack of managerial capability, the public suspects that this statement is based on political partiality. As vice governor of Lemhanas, which is a military educational institution, Juwono may share a common opinion with some other military officers who harbor a dislike of a civilian being nominated vice president.

A vice presidential candidate from the Armed Forces may not find it easy to gather civilian support unless he approaches the main civilian groups. It is therefore of great importance to whoever wishes to be a leader to enjoy the support of as many groups as possible and especially, in the case of a vice president, that of the president.

The writer is a lecturer of political science at the University of Indonesia and director of the post-graduate program at Jayabaya University.

Window: It is not impossible for a civilian to assume leadership as long as he can reassure the Armed Forces that their political interests will not be harmed.