Next Peruvian president faces weak economy
By Patrick Moser
LIMA (AFP): Whoever wins Sunday's presidential election here will have his work cut out for him, with Peruvians clamoring for work at a time of economic stagnation and political disenchantment.
"Creating new jobs will be the top challenge" for the next president, said political analyst Juan Abugattas, of the University of Lima.
While official unemployment rates are comparatively low, at eight percent, 58 percent of Peruvians are considered "underemployed," which often means they live in abject poverty.
Analysts say the situation is even worse than reflected by the official data.
"Only 11 percent of every 100 people are fully employed, with normal social benefits," said Alfredo Bernachea, an independent political analyst.
"Another fundamental issue is poverty," he said, adding that the poorest 20 percent segment of the population receive only 2.5 percent of the nation's wealth.
Both presidential hopefuls -- U.S.-educated economist Alejandro Toledo and ex-president Alan Garcia -- have made job creation and poverty eradication the top themes of their campaigns.
With economic growth virtually paralyzed, making good on the electoral pledges will be difficult.
And even before the next president can tackle crucial economic and social issues, he will face the formidable challenge of gaining the trust of an electorate that has grown increasingly cynical amid a series of scandals, including the cash-for-favors affairs that led to the November ouster of then-president Alberto Fujimori.
The mudslinging that marked the electoral campaigning has done little to reassure voters, who for months have heard accusations of sleaze, corruption and drug consumption.
The disenchantment was evident in the high number of voters -- about a quarter of the electorate -- who said they would follow a call to cast a blank vote of protest.
"One of the reasons is the candidates did not address the major issues that affect the country," said Abugattas.
Both candidates have offered populist packages of social improvement -- and a few low blows against the opposite camp -- but have revealed scant details of their economic and political programs.
On the whole, several analysts say the difference between Toledo and Garcia would be one of style rather than content, and that neither would attempt any major shift away from the free- market policies Fujimori followed.
Despite attempts to reassure investors, neither candidate has much support in the business community, which is particularly concerned about what many see as Garcia's disastrous economic performance during his 1985-1990 administration.
But Abugattas believes investors should not be overly worried. "I have strong hopes that whoever wins will invite the best economic technicians in the country to join his team," he said.
Whoever wins will also have to enter into political alliances, as neither Toledo's Peru Possible nor Garcia's APRA have a clear majority in the unicameral Congress.
One personality likely to be approached by the winner is former UN Secretary General Javier Perez de Cuellar, seen as a potential foreign minister.
Another leading figure eyed by both sides is Lourdes Flores, an attorney and an experienced conservative politician who trailed Garcia by a few points in the first round of voting in April.
"With Congress so fragmented, there is no question the next government will need to form a coalition, and many people welcome this as they are tired of the Fujimori style of government," said Bernachea.
Fujimori ran Peru with an iron grip for 10 years. He has been accused of riding roughshod over human rights and democracy, though he earned praise for reviving the moribund economy and for defeating two bloody leftist insurgencies.