New United States president will face huge problems ahead

By Alan Elsner

WASHINGTON (Reuters): Pity the winner.

Whether Republican George W. Bush is eventually confirmed as the next president of the United States, or Democrat Al Gore somehow pulls out a victory, the winner will grasp what may soon become a poisoned chalice.

Bush, the governor of Texas, would be the first president since the 1888 election to take office having lost the popular vote.

The Republicans will keep control of Congress but by wafer- thin majorities in both houses. Bush has made big promises to voters that may be tough to keep.

"Bush would come in knee-capped in terms of a mandate and he has made extravagant promises that will be impossible to keep. Whoever comes in will have to feature conciliation to get anything done," said Baruch College political scientist David Birdsell.

Bush has promised every American a tax cut, and his entire package would cost US$583 billion over the next five years and double that over 10 years. But the outgoing Congress has already spent almost $1 trillion in new programs, meaning there is less money for the new president to play with.

President Bill Clinton took office with his party well in control of Congress in 1992. When he failed to accomplish any of his big goals in his first two years, voters punished the Democrats savagely in the 1994 mid-term elections and handed both houses of Congress to the Republicans.

The temptation for Democrats in 2001 might be to block Bush and hope for redemption in the mid-terms of 2002 when the party would have an excellent chance of regaining control of Congress. The party not controlling the presidency traditionally gains seats in Congress in mid-term elections.

If Gore were to take power, he might face an even worse situation. Throughout the campaign, Bush stressed his willingness to reach out across party lines to forge alliances to get things done. Gore ran a much sharper, partisan campaign and would likely find few willing partners in Republican ranks.

Republicans view the vice president as fatally tainted by scandals of the Clinton administration and would be little inclined to cut him much slack.

"Clearly Bush has to deliver on his promises to work with Democrats. Incremental government and constant compromise will be the order of the day," said Georgetown University political scientist Steven Wayne.

"This really shows the country is closely divided. There's consensus on the problems but not on the solutions," he said.

The divisions are not only between the vast geographical center of the nation, which went overwhelmingly for Bush, and the two coasts that mainly backed Gore.

Men voted for Bush by a wide margin; women backed Gore.

Blacks and Hispanics supported Gore; whites voted for Bush.

Cities voted for Gore; rural areas for Bush.

Lurking in the wings for the new president is the ever-present danger of a recession, which the country has not experienced for almost 10 years.

"If we assume a recession is almost inevitable some time in the next four years, what happens then? The country has grown used to virtual full employment. What happens if businesses start folding or laying off workers?" asked Birdsell.

No doubt, the new president, whether Bush or Gore, will be greeted by promises of cooperation across party lines when he is finally sworn in next January.

But such pledges are often short-lived in the poisoned atmosphere of Washington where politics is a blood sport, now more than ever.