New suspension bridge symbolizes Japan's problems

In the first of several articles on Japan's role vis-a-vis the ongoing crisis in Southeast and East Asian economies, our Asia correspondent Harvey Stockwin examines the achievement and symbolic relevance of the longest suspension bridge in the world which opened to traffic last Sunday.

HONG KONG (JP): Eighty-four years after it was first proposed, and then dismissed as an impossible dream, the Akashi Kaikyo Bridge, the longest suspension bridge in the world, linking the main Japanese island of Honshu and the fourth-largest island of Shikoku finally became a dream realized on April 5.

But as the bridge, which is altogether 3,911 meters long, and carries a six lane expressway, was finally opened to traffic, the massive structure also symbolized a key Japanese economic failing -- the penchant to pursue public works projects, sometimes extremely expensive ones, which, in reality do relatively little to promote the long term prospects for renewed and sustained Japanese economic growth.

While the politics and economics behind the bridge may be questionable, nothing can detract from what is a superb engineering feat.

The Akashi Kaikyo Bridge (AKB) completes the second road link between the mainland and Shikoku. The AKB provides the quickest connection between what many see as Japan's commercial capital, the Kansai region around Osaka and Kobe, and the long-neglected island of Shikoku.

The AKB spans the Akashi Straits which lie between Kansai and the island of Awaji which, except for two narrow straits, forms a barrier at the western end of the Inland Sea. Vessels plying the Inland Sea, which includes ferries from Pusan in South Korea, must pass through the Akashi Straits in order to reach the ports at Osaka and Kobe. The smaller Onaruto Bridge already spans the narrower Straits between southern Awaji and Shikoku.

An article in the daily Yomiuri Shimbun recalled that the desirability of such a bridge was first raised in the then Imperial National Assembly as long ago as 1914. Then a politician from the Shikoku prefecture of Tokushima, Toranosuke Nakagawa, mooted the idea of such a link being built. His proposal was dismissed by the government of the day as "an impossible dream".

By the mid-1980s impossible dreams had become the order of the day for a Japan which had enjoyed four decades of fast uninterrupted economic growth. No less than three bridges spanning the Inland Sea were then planned of which the AKB is the second.

The first, a double-decker road-rail link, the Seto Ohashi Bridge, one of the longest bridges in the world, but only partially a suspension bridge, was opened in 1988 and links the Honshu city of Okayama with the Shikoku capital of Takamatsu. A third link at the western end of the Inland Sea, the Kurushima Bridge, is due to be opened during the first half of 1999.

With the advantage of 1990s hindsight, and the reduced hubris of today, it might have been better to concentrate on one road- rail bridge, with the AKB the obvious choice given its proximity to Kansai.

But 1980s Japan went for all three, linking eastern, central and western Shikoku to the mainland. All told, Shikoku's isolation from Japan's road and rail system has been ended with a vengeance.

But, since many Japanese are fond of traveling by sea, they will mourn the fact that the three bridges will inevitably put numerous Inland Sea ferry companies out of business.

Further the replacement of ferries with three bridges has come at a very high cost. The AKB alone is estimated to have cost between US$7.6 and US$10 billion dollars, though in some Japanese publications the cost is placed much lower. Whether these estimates include all the expressways which provide access to AKB is not clear.

Since the AKB cannot be an impediment to Inland Sea shipping, the expressway on the bridge is 65 meters above sea level. Since all reasonable precautions had to be taken against earthquakes and typhoons, the foundations for the two towers go down 60 to 70 meters. The stanchions supporting the two towers are as large as the playing area of one of Japan's major baseball stadiums. The towers from which the AKB is suspended soar to 297 meters.

The Kobe Earthquake in 1995 did not set back the construction work unduly, but it did have one minor side-effect. According to one source, the earthquake shifted the towers a little further apart, which is why the main central span of the bridge is now 1,991 meters long instead of 1,990 as originally planned.

The high cost of AKB, plus the building of three bridges instead of one or two, raises serious questions as to whether the links justify themselves economically. Prior to the completion of AKB, less than 1,000 cars a day passed across the Akashi Straits by ferry.

To be sure, 30,000 vehicles crossed the bridge on the first day but whether this level of mainly tourist traffic will be sustained is questionable.

Even the most optimistic forecasts of increased, bridge- induced, economic activity in the region do not indicate a satisfactory rate of return for a massive public works investment in the bridge project.

As is often the case in Japan, as elsewhere, the main immediate economic benefit of the project comes as a result of the actual construction work itself, rather than from any economic changes which will quickly follow in its wake. The AKB brings Awaji and Shikoku appreciably closer to Kansai but the benefits and changes for the regional economy will only come in the long term.

Some of the estimates of benefit from the AKB are exceedingly modest. One widely quoted one, by Daiwa Bank Research Institute, suggests that the overall longterm impact of AKB on the regional economy will be 150 billion yen or a little over US$1 billion. This figure probably does not include the negative economic impact of the closure of many ferry companies.

As ever, the huge project has increased the profits of the longtime allies of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the construction companies, while no doubt, at the same time providing some kick-backs for politicians.

But, as the latest gloomy statistics for the Japanese economy clearly indicate, this old formula for economic activity is unlikely to stimulate enhanced economic expansion.

In today's Japan, despite great engineering feats like the AKB, renewed economic dynamism is fast becoming a seemingly impossible dream.