New stars in RI political skies

New stars in RI political skies

Leo Suryadinata, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

Prior to this year's election in Indonesia, observers
generally agreed that the PDI-P led by President Megawati
Soekarnoputri, and Golkar, the ruling party during president
Soeharto's time, would remain as the top two parties, with most
predicting that Golkar would have a slight lead. Medium-rank
parties, especially those based on Islam, would survive but
Islamic parties would not emerge as the top winners.

The election's interim results appear to support these general
predictions. But there are several surprises: The PDI-P, or
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, votes have declined
significantly, while Golkar's have increased, but not by as much
as expected.

Moreover, except for the National Awakening Party (PKB) led by
former president Abdurrahman Wahid, medium-rank parties such as
the National Mandate Party (PAN) led by Amien Rais, the United
Development Party (PPP) led by Hamzah Haz, and the Crescent Star
Party (PBB) led by Yusril Ihza Mahendra, performed rather badly.

Where did their votes go?

The reasons are complex. Nevertheless, two major factors can
be identified: Voter disillusionment with the better established
parties and the emergence of many new rival parties.

The Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (Prosperous Justice Party or
PKS) and Partai Demokrat (Democratic Party or PD) combined took
14.4 percent of the votes.

The PD is closely linked to retired general Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono, coordinating minister of security during both the
Abdurrahman and Megawati Cabinets. Many secularists and
nationalists consider Bambang a potential future leader. In 1999,
nationalists in the National Assembly, or MPR, after the removal
of Abdurrahman and the appointment of Megawati to succeed him as
president, proposed Bambang as vice-president, but he came in
third after Hamzah and Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung.

Nevertheless, these nationalists did not give up; they saw the
future in this former military general. A group of intellectuals
(including many university professors) and professionals decided
to establish a party, the PD, for Bambang. They chose his
birthday to declare the date of the party's establishment. The
chairman of the PD is a university professor and head of the
department of anthropology at the University of Indonesia, Subur
Budhisanthoso. Within a short period of time, the party was able
to establish branches in all major provinces.

The PD is a secular party and uses the national ideology of
Pancasila, or Five Principles, as its political ideology. It
favors a unitary state of Indonesia and advocates cultural
pluralism. It also preaches democracy and advocates popular
political participation and a professional army. It wants to
combat corruption and nepotism and is against violence. In post-
Soeharto Indonesia, where corruption and violence have been
rampant, the emergence of the PD is a breath of fresh air and has
attracted many urban voters.

Only two years old, the PD wasn't taken seriously by observers
at first. However, it received a stimulus when Megawati refused
to let Bambang, her then coordinating security minister, attend a
Cabinet meeting and subsequently dismissed him.

This proved a blessing in disguise for the PD, which gained a
lot of sympathy votes in this election.

The Chinese voter was another factor. In 1999, ethnic Chinese
tended to vote for the PDI-P. This time, disillusioned with the
PDI-P and Megawati's leadership, they shifted their support to
other parties. From my observation, the PD, or more specifically,
Bambang, was the choice of many Chinese voters in Java.

Another 'new star' of this election, the PKS, is not really
new. In the 1999 election, it was called Partai Keadilan (PK) and
won 1.4 percent of the votes. It was the seventh largest party
but failed to pass the electoral threshold of 2 percent. So in
this election, it changed its name to Partai Keadilan Sejahtera.

Unlike the PD, which is a secular party, PKS is an Islamic
party, openly stating that it is a Partai Da'wah, or a party
which aims to spread the gospel of Islam. But it also states in
its program that it strives to build an Indonesian society in
accordance with the teaching of Allah 'within the context of the
Unitary State of Indonesia which is based on Pancasila'.

A well-known Indonesian commentator has called this group
'puritan Islamic idealists resurrected from the old days'.

The new leader of the party, Hidayat Nur Wahid, graduated from
a local Islamic institution and studied in Saudi Arabia. He has
been teaching in Islamic colleges in Indonesia since returning in
1992.

The predecessor of the PKS, the PK, was active on college
campuses in the post-Soeharto years and won many followers. Its
support came from the educated Islamic community not only in Java
but also in the outer islands. It competed with other Islamic
parties but, because of its limited circle, it was unable to
secure many votes.

However, under the new leadership, the PKS has begun to extend
its wing to poor Muslims, and is eclipsing Islamic parties such
as PAN and PBB. This is evidenced by the decline in these
parties' votes.

Overall, however, it is too early to say whether these new
parties will be parties of the future. The PD was formed for the
support of Bambang, while the PKS is a puritan idealist party and
does not yet have a major leader.

What can be said is that their rise will pose a challenge to
the established parties, at least during the July presidential
election. Bambang will be a candidate while the PKS will form an
alliance with other parties to nominate their own presidential
candidate. Both parties, therefore, will have a role as king-
makers, if nothing else.

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies.