New stars in RI political skies

Leo Suryadinata, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

Prior to this year's election in Indonesia, observers generally agreed that the PDI-P led by President Megawati Soekarnoputri, and Golkar, the ruling party during president Soeharto's time, would remain as the top two parties, with most predicting that Golkar would have a slight lead. Medium-rank parties, especially those based on Islam, would survive but Islamic parties would not emerge as the top winners.

The election's interim results appear to support these general predictions. But there are several surprises: The PDI-P, or Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, votes have declined significantly, while Golkar's have increased, but not by as much as expected.

Moreover, except for the National Awakening Party (PKB) led by former president Abdurrahman Wahid, medium-rank parties such as the National Mandate Party (PAN) led by Amien Rais, the United Development Party (PPP) led by Hamzah Haz, and the Crescent Star Party (PBB) led by Yusril Ihza Mahendra, performed rather badly.

Where did their votes go?

The reasons are complex. Nevertheless, two major factors can be identified: Voter disillusionment with the better established parties and the emergence of many new rival parties.

The Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (Prosperous Justice Party or PKS) and Partai Demokrat (Democratic Party or PD) combined took 14.4 percent of the votes.

The PD is closely linked to retired general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, coordinating minister of security during both the Abdurrahman and Megawati Cabinets. Many secularists and nationalists consider Bambang a potential future leader. In 1999, nationalists in the National Assembly, or MPR, after the removal of Abdurrahman and the appointment of Megawati to succeed him as president, proposed Bambang as vice-president, but he came in third after Hamzah and Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung.

Nevertheless, these nationalists did not give up; they saw the future in this former military general. A group of intellectuals (including many university professors) and professionals decided to establish a party, the PD, for Bambang. They chose his birthday to declare the date of the party's establishment. The chairman of the PD is a university professor and head of the department of anthropology at the University of Indonesia, Subur Budhisanthoso. Within a short period of time, the party was able to establish branches in all major provinces.

The PD is a secular party and uses the national ideology of Pancasila, or Five Principles, as its political ideology. It favors a unitary state of Indonesia and advocates cultural pluralism. It also preaches democracy and advocates popular political participation and a professional army. It wants to combat corruption and nepotism and is against violence. In post- Soeharto Indonesia, where corruption and violence have been rampant, the emergence of the PD is a breath of fresh air and has attracted many urban voters.

Only two years old, the PD wasn't taken seriously by observers at first. However, it received a stimulus when Megawati refused to let Bambang, her then coordinating security minister, attend a Cabinet meeting and subsequently dismissed him.

This proved a blessing in disguise for the PD, which gained a lot of sympathy votes in this election.

The Chinese voter was another factor. In 1999, ethnic Chinese tended to vote for the PDI-P. This time, disillusioned with the PDI-P and Megawati's leadership, they shifted their support to other parties. From my observation, the PD, or more specifically, Bambang, was the choice of many Chinese voters in Java.

Another 'new star' of this election, the PKS, is not really new. In the 1999 election, it was called Partai Keadilan (PK) and won 1.4 percent of the votes. It was the seventh largest party but failed to pass the electoral threshold of 2 percent. So in this election, it changed its name to Partai Keadilan Sejahtera.

Unlike the PD, which is a secular party, PKS is an Islamic party, openly stating that it is a Partai Da'wah, or a party which aims to spread the gospel of Islam. But it also states in its program that it strives to build an Indonesian society in accordance with the teaching of Allah 'within the context of the Unitary State of Indonesia which is based on Pancasila'.

A well-known Indonesian commentator has called this group 'puritan Islamic idealists resurrected from the old days'.

The new leader of the party, Hidayat Nur Wahid, graduated from a local Islamic institution and studied in Saudi Arabia. He has been teaching in Islamic colleges in Indonesia since returning in 1992.

The predecessor of the PKS, the PK, was active on college campuses in the post-Soeharto years and won many followers. Its support came from the educated Islamic community not only in Java but also in the outer islands. It competed with other Islamic parties but, because of its limited circle, it was unable to secure many votes.

However, under the new leadership, the PKS has begun to extend its wing to poor Muslims, and is eclipsing Islamic parties such as PAN and PBB. This is evidenced by the decline in these parties' votes.

Overall, however, it is too early to say whether these new parties will be parties of the future. The PD was formed for the support of Bambang, while the PKS is a puritan idealist party and does not yet have a major leader.

What can be said is that their rise will pose a challenge to the established parties, at least during the July presidential election. Bambang will be a candidate while the PKS will form an alliance with other parties to nominate their own presidential candidate. Both parties, therefore, will have a role as king- makers, if nothing else.

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.