New neighbor East Timor and triangular peace issues

New neighbor East Timor and triangular peace issues

Bantarto Bandoro, Editor, 'The Indonesian Quarterly', Centre for
Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta

The relationship between Indonesia and Australia has always
been unstable. Indonesia and East Timor have just tried to start
over in search of reconciliation, but many outstanding issues
have yet to be settled.

East Timor is now due to take on nationhood in May, but much
of the confidence vested in it will be closely linked,
politically, diplomatically and strategically, to Australian and
Indonesia interests. The relationships have been colored by
issues relating to human rights, justice and democracy.

To prevent further turbulence in their relationship,
Indonesia, Australia and East Timor heralded a new era in their
relationship following their February agreement to boost more
stable and constructive trilateral ties after years of violence
and diplomatic disputes.

The agreement came out against the background of their high
confidence that the three countries would be influential actors
and factors in the region's strategic environment. There have
also been bilateral diplomatic processes between Australia and
East Timor and between East Timor and Indonesia.

Each country cannot ignore the other, given their interlinked
interests. Such linkages form the basic framework of the
triangular relationship. Yet this framework will be a fragile one
due to the sensitive issues, and if not managed properly, it may
drag these countries into a more problematic relationship. Their
governments must therefore build a basis of trust and mutual
understanding of each other's objectives, methods and concerns,
and even suspicions.

Their bid for regional stability and security reflects the
high priority that none of them should let themselves be drawn
unintentionally into a situation involving antagonistic action
and reaction.

Examples of similar triangular ties are U.S.-Japan-China or
Taiwan-China-U.S. But an in-depth observation of these
relationships reveals weaknesses, or even asymmetrical
characteristics. This can be attributed, among other things, to
divergence in the political outlook and its dynamics, or in the
mental frame of reference within which each is trying to make
sense of an unfamiliar situation. Thus, on the vexed issue of
stability, often held to be one of the benchmarks in this type of
relationship, triangular relationships tend to be unstable.

Given the shared past of Indonesia, Australia and East Timor,
not much might be expected from their newly built triangular
relationship in terms of its contribution to regional stability.

The elements that constitute the triangular relationship would
not be as strong and reliable as one would expect, at least until
after the three countries have sincerely been willing to take
into account the ideas, practices and problems of the other.

A long-term triangular peace can thus be sustained only if
each country gets rid of the rigidity caused by its past, and if
each is able to adjust quickly to considerable uncertainty.

The triangular relationship is measurable in terms of the
weaknesses, strength and even the significance of its
components, now or in the future. Of the three countries, perhaps
East Timor currently constitutes the weakest part of the
triangle. It is doubtful whether East Timor will have the
bureaucratic capacity to manage the relationship in a way that
will enable it to become an important and strategic partner in
the relationship.

If East Timor is to be seen as a credible actor in building
the triangle of peace, it has to exercise diplomacy that will
convincingly attract massive flows of ideas, assistance and
advice into the new country. It could derive tremendous wealth
from its offshore reserves of oil and gas. Hence its would-be
strength is in creating and enabling an environment that would
facilitate the initiatives of others in the triangle, provided
that the process towards its nationhood goes smoothly and without
interruption.

Observation of the triangular relationship between the above
countries reveals that the triangle will be a lopsided one.
Indonesia-Australia relations are perhaps the major arm of the
relationship. These two countries will certainly dominate East
Timor's political, strategic and commercial life.

A rift in Indonesia-Australia relations would pose great
difficulty for East Timor. Any tensions would almost certainly
spill over to East Timor. They would also complicate East Timor's
path toward peaceful reconstruction.

The Indonesia-East Timor arm of the triangle is complex, and
one that is highly charged with emotions. The relationship is
particularly colored by human rights issues. Both have to settle
important issues such as maritime and land borders, asset claims
and refugees. But, due to the sensitivity of the issues, nobody
can guarantee that the settlement of such issues will
automatically extinguish frictions between Indonesia and East
Timor. The possible crippling of the Indonesia-East Timor arm
would certainly wound the triangular pattern.

Ties between East Timor and Australia are also bound to remain
complex. This is because of Australia's involvement in 1999,
when East Timor came into being. East Timor would continue to
expect Australia's economic and political support.

Australia and East Timor have signed agreements to stop the
latter becoming a new haven for people-smuggling. Should East
Timor fail to perform the role mandated by the agreements, it
would risk tensions in their relationship. Thus, failure of both
Australia and East Timor to provide mutual "services" would
certainly effect the above triangle.

Indonesia, Australia and East Timor cannot sit idly by for
each other's development and progress. They must manage the
relationship in such a way as not to provoke each other's hostile
reaction. If, for example, Indonesia's relations with Australia
become antagonistic, it would certainly effect the full entry of
East Timor into the international community.

Alternatively, if Indonesia's relations with East Timor were
to deteriorate, it would force East Timor to seek Australia's
strategic backing. If its relations with Australia worsened, that
could tilt the balance toward closer East Timor-Indonesian ties.

Unless the countries are serious about making the triangular
relationship an important factor in the regional configuration,
and unless they are willing to look at the situation beyond their
own perceptions, the triangular peace they wish to develop will
remain a problematic one.