New neighbor East Timor and triangular peace issues

Bantarto Bandoro, Editor, 'The Indonesian Quarterly', Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta

The relationship between Indonesia and Australia has always been unstable. Indonesia and East Timor have just tried to start over in search of reconciliation, but many outstanding issues have yet to be settled.

East Timor is now due to take on nationhood in May, but much of the confidence vested in it will be closely linked, politically, diplomatically and strategically, to Australian and Indonesia interests. The relationships have been colored by issues relating to human rights, justice and democracy.

To prevent further turbulence in their relationship, Indonesia, Australia and East Timor heralded a new era in their relationship following their February agreement to boost more stable and constructive trilateral ties after years of violence and diplomatic disputes.

The agreement came out against the background of their high confidence that the three countries would be influential actors and factors in the region's strategic environment. There have also been bilateral diplomatic processes between Australia and East Timor and between East Timor and Indonesia.

Each country cannot ignore the other, given their interlinked interests. Such linkages form the basic framework of the triangular relationship. Yet this framework will be a fragile one due to the sensitive issues, and if not managed properly, it may drag these countries into a more problematic relationship. Their governments must therefore build a basis of trust and mutual understanding of each other's objectives, methods and concerns, and even suspicions.

Their bid for regional stability and security reflects the high priority that none of them should let themselves be drawn unintentionally into a situation involving antagonistic action and reaction.

Examples of similar triangular ties are U.S.-Japan-China or Taiwan-China-U.S. But an in-depth observation of these relationships reveals weaknesses, or even asymmetrical characteristics. This can be attributed, among other things, to divergence in the political outlook and its dynamics, or in the mental frame of reference within which each is trying to make sense of an unfamiliar situation. Thus, on the vexed issue of stability, often held to be one of the benchmarks in this type of relationship, triangular relationships tend to be unstable.

Given the shared past of Indonesia, Australia and East Timor, not much might be expected from their newly built triangular relationship in terms of its contribution to regional stability.

The elements that constitute the triangular relationship would not be as strong and reliable as one would expect, at least until after the three countries have sincerely been willing to take into account the ideas, practices and problems of the other.

A long-term triangular peace can thus be sustained only if each country gets rid of the rigidity caused by its past, and if each is able to adjust quickly to considerable uncertainty.

The triangular relationship is measurable in terms of the weaknesses, strength and even the significance of its components, now or in the future. Of the three countries, perhaps East Timor currently constitutes the weakest part of the triangle. It is doubtful whether East Timor will have the bureaucratic capacity to manage the relationship in a way that will enable it to become an important and strategic partner in the relationship.

If East Timor is to be seen as a credible actor in building the triangle of peace, it has to exercise diplomacy that will convincingly attract massive flows of ideas, assistance and advice into the new country. It could derive tremendous wealth from its offshore reserves of oil and gas. Hence its would-be strength is in creating and enabling an environment that would facilitate the initiatives of others in the triangle, provided that the process towards its nationhood goes smoothly and without interruption.

Observation of the triangular relationship between the above countries reveals that the triangle will be a lopsided one. Indonesia-Australia relations are perhaps the major arm of the relationship. These two countries will certainly dominate East Timor's political, strategic and commercial life.

A rift in Indonesia-Australia relations would pose great difficulty for East Timor. Any tensions would almost certainly spill over to East Timor. They would also complicate East Timor's path toward peaceful reconstruction.

The Indonesia-East Timor arm of the triangle is complex, and one that is highly charged with emotions. The relationship is particularly colored by human rights issues. Both have to settle important issues such as maritime and land borders, asset claims and refugees. But, due to the sensitivity of the issues, nobody can guarantee that the settlement of such issues will automatically extinguish frictions between Indonesia and East Timor. The possible crippling of the Indonesia-East Timor arm would certainly wound the triangular pattern.

Ties between East Timor and Australia are also bound to remain complex. This is because of Australia's involvement in 1999, when East Timor came into being. East Timor would continue to expect Australia's economic and political support.

Australia and East Timor have signed agreements to stop the latter becoming a new haven for people-smuggling. Should East Timor fail to perform the role mandated by the agreements, it would risk tensions in their relationship. Thus, failure of both Australia and East Timor to provide mutual "services" would certainly effect the above triangle.

Indonesia, Australia and East Timor cannot sit idly by for each other's development and progress. They must manage the relationship in such a way as not to provoke each other's hostile reaction. If, for example, Indonesia's relations with Australia become antagonistic, it would certainly effect the full entry of East Timor into the international community.

Alternatively, if Indonesia's relations with East Timor were to deteriorate, it would force East Timor to seek Australia's strategic backing. If its relations with Australia worsened, that could tilt the balance toward closer East Timor-Indonesian ties.

Unless the countries are serious about making the triangular relationship an important factor in the regional configuration, and unless they are willing to look at the situation beyond their own perceptions, the triangular peace they wish to develop will remain a problematic one.