New hope in Manila

After the dramatic turn of events in Manila over the weekend, the old saying that "all's well that ends well" seems to be nowhere more appropriate than in the case of the leadership crisis in the Philippines.

Up to the last moment it had seemed as if the embattled Philippine president, Joseph Estrada, would hold on to his position, notwithstanding the enormous odds working against him.

But, abandoned by his top ministers and military officers and with some 75,000 people surrounding the Malacanang presidential palace, Estrada in the end had to bow to the people's will.

He was forced to resign shortly after the set deadline expired at 6 a.m., after the Supreme Court pronounced the office of the presidency vacant, thereby opening the way for his vice president, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, to assume the post.

For us in Indonesia there are some good lessons to learn from these events in Manila.

One of the good points is the fact that even with masses of Estrada protagonists and antagonists confronting one another in the streets, there was little if any violence. The protests and counterprotests can be said to have been generally peaceful, indicating a certain political maturity on the part of the Philippine people.

But this, when one thinks about it, should not be very surprising. It might be relevant to note that, more so than in Indonesia, people in the Philippines are more familiar with the concept of democracy, having been properly prepared for it during the last years of American domination.

Indonesia, on the other hand, acquired its independence by armed revolution and has, except at the village level, had little experience with democracy.

While the legislature was struggling with impeachment proceedings, devastating indications of misrule by Estrada became apparent and the anti-Estrada movement gained more and more momentum until he was finally forced to step down.

A less favorable reality for the Philippines, though, is the fact that, in the end, it was not parliamentary proceedings, but "people power" that brought Estrada down. We can only hope -- as no doubt the Philippine people do -- that this will be the last leadership change achieved by people power.

With the weeks of uncertainty resolved, the hard work is only beginning for the newly sworn president. However, Arroyo, a former economics professor, seems to be well equipped to undertake the task of reviving the country's troubled economy.

This optimism was reflected immediately upon Arroyo's assuming office with the value of the peso against the U.S. dollar rising from a low of 55.79 to a range of 47 to 49.

However, patience will be needed. Moreover, as we in Indonesia are learning the hard way, there can be no economic recovery without political stability. Whether President Arroyo is ready and able to undertake this task remains to be seen.

In any case, Filipinos can now look toward their future with renewed optimism. Let us hope that this optimism is justified.