New common ground for RI-Australia ties?

New common ground for RI-Australia ties?

By Siswo Pramono

CANBERRA (JP): Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid and
Australian Prime Minister John Howard have agreed on a new common
ground for Indonesian-Australian relations. Leaders and
governments might change, but the two countries should quickly
reengage. Australia fully supports Indonesia's territorial
integrity, while Indonesia has promised to prosecute human rights
offensives in East Timor before and after the ballot in the
territory. Both countries support a West Pacific forum of dialog,
and they consider regular visits by their respective leaders
important.

A week before President Abdurrahman arrived in Canberra, some
pessimistic view were aired by many Australian media. How could
the embattled President implement the results of the visit since
his days were numbered? The mainstream opinion in Australia is
that Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri will replace
Abdurrahman in August.

During Soeharto's era, Abdurrahman was well known in Australia
as the outspoken, internationally recognized activist of human
rights and democracy. He visited Australia about 10 times before
becoming president. Thus, for many Australians, he is first a
democrat and second Indonesia's first freely elected president.

If anything, the media's positive reaction to his visit
reflects an appreciation for his personality.

The unknown Megawati, on the other hand, has caused anxiety
among Australians. The speculation is that the prospective
Megawati government would be very nationalistic, "surrounded by
the military and the reassembled forces of Soeharto's New Order"
(The Australian, June 27). This will not do any good for
Australian-Indonesian relations.

It is not fair to judge an Indonesian leader on mere
speculation. Many Australians might have ignored the fact that it
was Megawati who experienced hardship under the previous military
regime. She personally considers democratic control of the
military of primary importance.

Since neighboring countries are nervously watching, it is
important for Megawati to introduce her foreign policy platform.
And if Megawati is to replace Abdurrahman, it would be wise for
her to consider Australia the first country to visit.

Australia seems to be realistic in reading the dynamics of
Indonesian politics. Regardless of who is president, Australia
knows only too well that for a considerable time the military
will remain the major political force in Indonesia.

At present, argued Allan Behm, a former head of the
international and strategic division of the Australian Department
of Defense, the Indonesian Military (TNI) is the only functioning
national institution in Indonesia.

It would be unrealistic to expect an abrupt demilitarization
of the Indonesian political system in which the military has
played a pivotal role since the birth of the republic.
Nonetheless, many Australians believe that if military men like
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Agus Widjojo had more central roles
to play, the military's withdrawal from politics could be
expedited.

Nationalism, alongside growing ethnic nationalism, is also
another political fact that Australia must accept. Megawati's
Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan)
represents the secular nationalists. Abdurrahman's Nahdlatul
Ulama (NU) represents the Islamic nationalists. Thus, PDI
Perjuangan and NU represent the nationalistic forces of the
grassroots level. Nationalistic forces are also strongly
represented in the House of Representatives and the People's
Consultative Assembly.

Australia is aware that at least until 2004, strained
relations between a weak government and the strong nationalistic
House and Assembly will mark Indonesian politics. Against this
backdrop, Australia is also aware that no Indonesian president
will dare violate the Assembly decrees mandating him or her to
defend the unity and integrity of Indonesia.

Realpolitik dictated that Australia's John Howard reassure
Abdurrahman that Australia supports Indonesia's sovereignty and
territorial integrity within its current borders. Howard has
urged Indonesia to proceed with special autonomy as the best
solution for West Papua and Aceh problems. This Australian stance
incites frustration and anger among the West Papuan activists
residing in Australia.

The collapse of the Indonesian-Australian security agreement
in 1999 has accentuated Australian anxiety about what will happen
in Indonesia after the Assembly's special session on Aug. 1.
Andrew Thomson, head of the parliamentary committee on
international treaties, is worried about the potential for a
power vacuum in Jakarta (The Sydney Morning Herald, June 25).
The worst scenario for Australia is the emergence of an unknown
force, either fundamentalist or narrow-minded nationalist, that
will lead Indonesia to another confrontation with Australia.

East Timor and West Papua have been and will always be on the
Australian political agenda. Any Australian leader, either John
Howard or his prospective successor, Kim Beazley, will be under
domestic pressure to deal with human rights issues in those two
territories. Both will remain explosive issues that can cause
another crash in the fragile bilateral relations.

This has led Australia to another realpolitik situation by
supporting Abdurrahman's West Pacific Forum. Issues concerning
East Timor and West Papua can be discussed in this forum, which
would include Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea
and other Pacific island states.

But the West Pacific Forum could be problematic for Indonesia.
If Indonesia failed to take the lead in the forum it is likely
that Australia would assume this role. Indonesia's efforts to
embrace the Melanesian groups and bring them closer to Indonesia
would then prove ineffective. Worse, if Indonesia failed to bring
justice to East Timor and West Papua and settle allegations of
human rights violations, the forum could turn into a trial for
Indonesia itself.

One can expect democratization in Indonesia will gradually
reduce the roles of the military and narrow-minded nationalists.
But for the time being, the military and these "nationalists"
remain the main obstacles to the success of a human rights
tribunal for East Timor.

Whether or not Indonesia gets a new government in August, the
implementation of this new common ground into concrete policy
will not be easy. But it is in the best interest of Indonesia to
follow up on this.

In the coming years this new common ground will be put to the
test, as the new reality of the bilateral relations becomes more
apparent. Indonesia is now a more democratic state and Australia
is more assertive. But Indonesia, for quite some time, will be on
the weak side of the bilateral relations.

With so many residual problems in sight, this imbalance must
be carefully managed. Otherwise, the two countries could again
become entrapped in another up and down roller-coaster
relationship.

The writer is a postgraduate student of political science at
the Australian National University in Canberra and an official at
the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The above views are
personal.