New common ground for RI-Australia ties?

By Siswo Pramono

CANBERRA (JP): Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid and Australian Prime Minister John Howard have agreed on a new common ground for Indonesian-Australian relations. Leaders and governments might change, but the two countries should quickly reengage. Australia fully supports Indonesia's territorial integrity, while Indonesia has promised to prosecute human rights offensives in East Timor before and after the ballot in the territory. Both countries support a West Pacific forum of dialog, and they consider regular visits by their respective leaders important.

A week before President Abdurrahman arrived in Canberra, some pessimistic view were aired by many Australian media. How could the embattled President implement the results of the visit since his days were numbered? The mainstream opinion in Australia is that Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri will replace Abdurrahman in August.

During Soeharto's era, Abdurrahman was well known in Australia as the outspoken, internationally recognized activist of human rights and democracy. He visited Australia about 10 times before becoming president. Thus, for many Australians, he is first a democrat and second Indonesia's first freely elected president.

If anything, the media's positive reaction to his visit reflects an appreciation for his personality.

The unknown Megawati, on the other hand, has caused anxiety among Australians. The speculation is that the prospective Megawati government would be very nationalistic, "surrounded by the military and the reassembled forces of Soeharto's New Order" (The Australian, June 27). This will not do any good for Australian-Indonesian relations.

It is not fair to judge an Indonesian leader on mere speculation. Many Australians might have ignored the fact that it was Megawati who experienced hardship under the previous military regime. She personally considers democratic control of the military of primary importance.

Since neighboring countries are nervously watching, it is important for Megawati to introduce her foreign policy platform. And if Megawati is to replace Abdurrahman, it would be wise for her to consider Australia the first country to visit.

Australia seems to be realistic in reading the dynamics of Indonesian politics. Regardless of who is president, Australia knows only too well that for a considerable time the military will remain the major political force in Indonesia.

At present, argued Allan Behm, a former head of the international and strategic division of the Australian Department of Defense, the Indonesian Military (TNI) is the only functioning national institution in Indonesia.

It would be unrealistic to expect an abrupt demilitarization of the Indonesian political system in which the military has played a pivotal role since the birth of the republic. Nonetheless, many Australians believe that if military men like Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Agus Widjojo had more central roles to play, the military's withdrawal from politics could be expedited.

Nationalism, alongside growing ethnic nationalism, is also another political fact that Australia must accept. Megawati's Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) represents the secular nationalists. Abdurrahman's Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) represents the Islamic nationalists. Thus, PDI Perjuangan and NU represent the nationalistic forces of the grassroots level. Nationalistic forces are also strongly represented in the House of Representatives and the People's Consultative Assembly.

Australia is aware that at least until 2004, strained relations between a weak government and the strong nationalistic House and Assembly will mark Indonesian politics. Against this backdrop, Australia is also aware that no Indonesian president will dare violate the Assembly decrees mandating him or her to defend the unity and integrity of Indonesia.

Realpolitik dictated that Australia's John Howard reassure Abdurrahman that Australia supports Indonesia's sovereignty and territorial integrity within its current borders. Howard has urged Indonesia to proceed with special autonomy as the best solution for West Papua and Aceh problems. This Australian stance incites frustration and anger among the West Papuan activists residing in Australia.

The collapse of the Indonesian-Australian security agreement in 1999 has accentuated Australian anxiety about what will happen in Indonesia after the Assembly's special session on Aug. 1. Andrew Thomson, head of the parliamentary committee on international treaties, is worried about the potential for a power vacuum in Jakarta (The Sydney Morning Herald, June 25). The worst scenario for Australia is the emergence of an unknown force, either fundamentalist or narrow-minded nationalist, that will lead Indonesia to another confrontation with Australia.

East Timor and West Papua have been and will always be on the Australian political agenda. Any Australian leader, either John Howard or his prospective successor, Kim Beazley, will be under domestic pressure to deal with human rights issues in those two territories. Both will remain explosive issues that can cause another crash in the fragile bilateral relations.

This has led Australia to another realpolitik situation by supporting Abdurrahman's West Pacific Forum. Issues concerning East Timor and West Papua can be discussed in this forum, which would include Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and other Pacific island states.

But the West Pacific Forum could be problematic for Indonesia. If Indonesia failed to take the lead in the forum it is likely that Australia would assume this role. Indonesia's efforts to embrace the Melanesian groups and bring them closer to Indonesia would then prove ineffective. Worse, if Indonesia failed to bring justice to East Timor and West Papua and settle allegations of human rights violations, the forum could turn into a trial for Indonesia itself.

One can expect democratization in Indonesia will gradually reduce the roles of the military and narrow-minded nationalists. But for the time being, the military and these "nationalists" remain the main obstacles to the success of a human rights tribunal for East Timor.

Whether or not Indonesia gets a new government in August, the implementation of this new common ground into concrete policy will not be easy. But it is in the best interest of Indonesia to follow up on this.

In the coming years this new common ground will be put to the test, as the new reality of the bilateral relations becomes more apparent. Indonesia is now a more democratic state and Australia is more assertive. But Indonesia, for quite some time, will be on the weak side of the bilateral relations.

With so many residual problems in sight, this imbalance must be carefully managed. Otherwise, the two countries could again become entrapped in another up and down roller-coaster relationship.

The writer is a postgraduate student of political science at the Australian National University in Canberra and an official at the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The above views are personal.