New Caucasus order shaped despite Russia

By Paul Taylor

ISTANBUL (Reuters): Behind the diplomatic drama over Chechnya at a European security summit, a new order is slowly taking shape in the Caucasus to the benefit of the United States and Turkey and the detriment of Russia and Iran.

But whether shutting out two major regional powers will bring stability to the turbulent, mountainous area spanning from southern Russia to northern Iran remains to be seem.

The embryonic "Pax Americana" in the Caucasus may promise more stability and prosperity than it can deliver, while giving Moscow and Tehran a vested interest in destabilizing it.

The regional realignment is one of the consequences of the collapse of the former Soviet Union and the drive to develop the Caspian basin's oil and gas resources.

Agreements reached at and around last week's 54-nation summit of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) took the process of reshaping a step further, prompting growls from Moscow.

They raised the prospect of a peace settlement in the southern Caucasus, a reduction of Russia's military presence in the region and a role for the OSCE in a political solution in the rebel Russian republic of Chechnya.

With President Bill Clinton looking on, leaders of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan signed agreements on building a controversial pipeline to pump Caspian oil from the Azeri capital Baku to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan.

Although experts doubt the 1,080-mile (1,700 km) pipeline will be built soon because of a shortage of finance and a lack of sufficient oil to make it commercially viable yet, the United States has invested enormous prestige in the project.

Yet U.S. officials say there is no question of American forces being deployed to protect the pipeline, which would run close to areas prone to lawlessness and separatist violence. Most of the international oil pipelines in the Middle East have long been shut down by disputes among neighbors.

Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev hit a raw nerve last week when he accused the West of trying to push Russia out of the Caucasus and the oil-rich Caspian Sea region, which it has traditionally dominated.

"The national interests of the United States would best of all be served by an option whereby an armed, controllable conflict would perpetually smolder on the territory of the North Caucasus," he said.

The White House was quick to deny the accusation that Washington was fomenting unrest. U.S. officials point out that the Islamic guerrillas that Russia is fighting are fiercely anti- American and some may be linked to Afghan-based guerrilla chieftain Osama Bin Laden, Washington's public enemy number one.

But strategic analysts say the broader picture painted by Sergeyev of Western efforts to establish a corridor of pro- Western states stretching from Turkey to China on what used to be the southern flank of the Soviet Union was accurate.

Pro-Western leaders in Georgia and Azerbaijan, states which gained their independence in 1991 when the Soviet empire broke up, are seeking protection and investment from the West.

Isolated Armenia, which still has Russian troops on its soil and relies on Russia and Iran for arms supplies, is on the verge of making peace with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh in a bid to win prosperity which only the West, and an open border with its Western neighbor Turkey, can deliver.

Georgia is pressing to get Russian troops off its territory, where they currently patrol the rebel Abkhazia region, beyond the control of President Eduard Shevardnadze's government.

Georgian officials have accused dark forces in Russia of being behind a series of assassination attempts on Shevardnadze, a former reforming Soviet foreign minister.

The newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta said the OSCE summit had signaled a change of venue for clashes of political interest between the major powers from the Balkans to the Caucasus. And leading Russian foreign policy analyst Vyacheslav Nikonov wrote in the newspaper Izvestia: "America is set to behave as the sole superpower and as such will push forward initiatives which contradict Russian national interests."

The United States and Turkey may appear to have the upper hand for the time being in the struggle for the Caucasus, but events may yet frustrate their plans.

Azeri President Haydar Aliyev, a veteran of the former Soviet politburo, had heart surgery this year and is in uncertain health. His hopes of installing his son, Ilkham, as his successor face internal opposition, which both Russia and Iran may have an interest in fanning.

Western diplomats say Turkey's powerful generals have forged close ties with the Azeri military, who could become power brokers in the succession battle.

The murder of Armenian Prime Minister Vazgen Sarkswyan and seven other politicians when gunmen burst into parliament in Yerevan last month has highlighted the instability and lawlessness prevalent in much of the region.

In the short run, it prevented Armenia and Azerbaijan from completing a peace agreement in Istanbul to end the decade-old dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a territory inside Azerbaijan populated largely by ethnic Armenians, although both presidents reaffirmed their determination to conclude a deal soon.