New Afghan regime rocks region

The unexpectedly swift victory of the radical fundamentalist Taleban militia in Kabul, Afghanistan's capital, over the regime of president Burhanuddin Rabbani will lead to a major realignment of forces in the region.

Central Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Iran will be affected: Pakistan will be the net gainer, at the expense of all other states.

Since the emergence of the militantly Islamic regime in Kabul will boost the fortunes of the opposition Moslem radicals not only in adjoining Uzbekistan and Tajikistan but also in Indian- administered Kashmir, these countries stand to lose politically and diplomatically.

Beyond the region, the interests of both Russia and the United States will suffer as the new victors in Kabul consolidate their power and increase their influence among radical Islamists in Chechnya and in the Arab world.

Ever since the fundamentalist Taleban made their first military gain two years ago, they have left little doubt about the Islamic order they have introduced in the territories they have captured. It is strict sharia Islamic law, consisting of the Koran and the Hadith -- the sayings and doings of Prophet Mohamed. Among other things, it involves prescribing the veil for women, and discouraging education for families.

But because the Taleban, led by Maulavi Muhammad Omar, a qualified theologian, follow a strict Hanafi code of the Sharia within the Sunni sect of Islam, they are not popular with Iran, a predominantly Shia country, where the regime pursues the Jaafari code of the Sharia.

Also, most of the adherents of Shia Islam in Afghanistan are ethnic Hazaras of Mongoloid stock, forming about 12 percent of the population. In contrast, the Taleban are predominantly Pushtun, also called Pathan, the largest ethnic group, making up over 40 per cent of the Afghan population. They are concentrated in the southern and central regions.

Since the fighters and commanders of the Taleban militia come predominantly from Afghan students -- children of Afghan refugees in Pakistan -- of theological schools based in Pakistan, the ties between the new regime in Kabul and Islamabad will grow tighter.

The above scenario is based on the assumption that the Taleban leadership does not decide to overpower the northern alliance led by Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, which controls the provinces adjoining Uzbekistan, and the forces of Rabbani refrain from mounting a counter-attack on Kabul.

In the shifting sands of Afghan politics, one or both of these assumptions could change.

-- The Nation, Bangkok