'Never has there been so much democracy'
By Jonathan Power
LONDON (JP): Perhaps after all it has been a good year. Despite Rwanda, Zaire, Afghanistan, Iraq's Saddam Hussein, Belarus' Alexander Lukasbenka and, not least, despite China. Indeed, if it wasn't for China, repository of a quarter of the world's population, ruled by a self-absorbed, often unenlightened oligarchy, the world's darkest spots could be counted on one hand, or two at the most.
Not bad for a planet that only 51 years ago was finishing off its World War II in half a century and only seven years ago was tearing down the iron curtain that had closed off the yearnings of half of Europe and, in between, saw the ending of 200 or more years of world-wide European and later American colonialism, often only after a horrendous war of liberation.
The red and white of this reckoning is culled from Freedom House's tabulations of political rights and civil liberties in a report to be published today. It is, Freedom House says, a vintage, landmark, year with 79 of the world's 191 countries, now qualifying as totally free, the highest number ever recorded since Freedom House's annual survey was launched in 1972.
There are 135 million more people living in democratic, libertarian societies than there were last year. And if one adds in the partly free--countries which are democratic but still have some constraints on basic rights--like Russia, Malaysia, Thailand, Colombia and India--then 62 percent of the world's people are now living in relatively free societies. To get a sense of the achievement one only has to thumb back to Freedom House's 1987 survey when only 41 percent of us were living in democracies.
The fizz is still there and those who try and keep it bottled up are not only of another age, they are becoming rarer by the year. 1996 has been for the democracy vineyard a superlative year. It saw the triumph of electoral politics in Central and Eastern Europe. In most cases elections swept anti-communists and non- communists into office, while the political influence of ultranationalist and neo- fascist parties declined significantly. Richard Nixon was right about the Russian fascist, Vladimir Zhirinovsky. On Nixon's last visit to Moscow when Zhirinovsky's fortunes were in the ascendant and many commentators feared he'd win the presidency Nixon observed that he was nothing but a clown.
In Taiwan the democratic presidential election was a milestone not just for the people of the off-shore island but for all Chinese everywhere. There is nothing, neither history, nor Confucianism, nor communism, that will stand for ever between the Chinese people and liberty. It was a similar lesson for Central America. What has for too long been decided by the bullet is being settled by regular ballot. There is now, to be implemented on Dec. 29, a peace agreement ending the isthmus' worst war, in Guatemala. In Nicaragua the former Sandinista guerrilla leader stood for president in an open and fair contest, and lost.
Despite all the talk of "Asian values"--that somehow the smack of firm government is part and parcel of the region's Confucian heritage and the pressing priorities of countries in the middle of an industrial revolution--the revealing truth is that nearly two thirds of the Asian/Pacific region are electoral democracies. However poor or prosperous people are, if asked, they do prefer responsive government and individual participation.
No country has proved this more the last year than the Philippines. On the threshold of the kind of economic success that Taiwan now enjoys, but with still over half the country's population poor and relatively neglected, the country has during 1996 seen a sharp reduction in the disproportionate influence of the country's traditional ruling families and, also, a significant decline in the rebel insurgencies. Its democracy seems vital and assured and it makes Freedom House's top grade of "free."
Even in China which likes to believe it doesn't kowtow to any foreign idea-- unless, of course, the elite can make money from it--the leadership is beginning to allow a wide range of latitude for local democracy in the rural areas. The real test will come on July 1, when, by a single gesture, it could assure the world's money markets that Hong Kong will continue as before. It only has to allow the same local political rights it gives many of its rural areas to secure Hong Kong's recipe for success and, indeed, China's own economic future.
This for 1997 will doubtless be the biggest issue in the world-wide democracy stakes. We shouldn't expect big changes in the other dark spots, Zaire, Rwanda, Belarus, Afghanistan, Iraq. But maybe if the Chinese leaders are truly self-interested in their country's long-term prosperity they will decide to preserve intact the golden goose that lays the golden eggs and will, at the eleventh hour no doubt, permit Hong Kong's rather modest democracy to survive. This will be one small, if significant, step for China but a big step for democratic mankind.