Need for reform to test 'Mercurial Mahathir'

Philippine Daily Inquirer, Asia News Network, Manila

How Malaysia will manage the transition after 21 years of Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is worth watching for Filipinos used to rocky transitions of their own. If the shock that greeted Mahathir's sudden offer to resign during the annual conference of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party -- that, and his withdrawal of the announcement after party leaders had pleaded him -- were to be a indication, the transition seems headed for a lot of surprises.

What the Malaysian flip-flop shows is that the transition will be determined by the personality of Mahathir, a personality that is a combination of the charismatic, the fanciful, the quixotic, the iron fist, and alas, the mercurial. For somebody who has shown deliberateness and determination in his political moves, Mahathir's emotional offer to resign seems to negate the qualities that have allowed him to stay in power for so long.

What the offer has spawned is speculation about the transition. According to UMNO leaders, Mahathir will hand over power to his deputy, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, late next year. Although the time calculated is in such a way that Badawi grows into the premiership, it is also quite protracted, enough for some party jockeying and internal struggle to take place.

Will the time also be enough for the opposition to strengthen itself and contest UMNO's dominance? Perhaps. The opposition coalition has a number of fundamentalist Islamic parties that have lost ground since Sept. 11. In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks against the United States, Mahathir has jailed a number of suspected extremists and polished his international image as a moderate Muslim leader by visits to the United States and the Vatican.

It would have been good timing if Mahathir had indeed stuck to his resignation. Now is as good a time as any for him to step down after 21 years of steering Malaysia to becoming one of the continent's more affluent nations. Under his helm, Malaysia was able to ride out the 1997 currency crisis and regain its footing. Taking over the finance portfolio, he tried to steady Malaysia in the sea of currency turmoil by imposing foreign exchange controls, which didn't exactly do the trick although it displayed his resolve to clamp down on speculators.

His attempts to steady Malaysia led him to use the iron fist against his political enemies, particularly his former deputy, Anwar Ibrahim, with whom he had a falling out because of their disagreement on how best to respond to the crisis. In countries with greater democratic grace, the disagreement would have been handled cordially. But not Mahathir and Malaysia. Forthwith he ordered Anwar arrested and charged for sodomy. Anwar is now in prison, the lightning rod of the opposition.

The man who replaced Anwar is considered a lightweight in economic and financial management. Abdullah, 62, is known as the "Mr. Clean" and is noted for his caution and diplomacy. Part of the transition strategy is for Mahathir to cede more and more some of the responsibilities to him so that he can grow in knowledge and stature.

To be sure, any vision of the post-Mahathir era should balance the need for continuity and the need for change. Since it is expected that economic policies and programs by then will reflect the predictability and rationality that have been the hallmarks of Malaysian economic management under the Mahathir era, reforms will have to take place in the political arena.

In any case, the economic achievements of the past will have to be seconded by the political reforms of the future. Affluent Malaysia can only be reaffirmed by its reinvention as "Gentler Malaysia."

The reforms will have to take the form of democratization. Greater economic openness and robustness should translate to greater political liberalization and confidence. Perhaps Mahathir this early could display that confidence by releasing Anwar.