Nature's warning signals

Nature's warning signals

As happens practically every year with the onset of the dry
season, the specter of drought is once again raising its head
over the most densely populated parts of this vast archipelago.
In several areas of East Java and Central Java, even at this
early stage of the dry season, drought has already begun to
threaten crops and food production levels, not to mention the
daily needs of the population. In West Kalimantan, where the
population is less dense, the absence of rain has led to a
different kind of hazard: Fires from burning tracts of forest are
spreading smoke far and wide across the area, hampering flights
to and from the provincial capital, Pontianak.

Generally speaking, the province of West Java is situated in
an area of Indonesia that is blessed with a more stable climate,
due to its mountainous geography. Little wonder that here too are
found some of Java's most important rice granaries, such as the
area around Karawang, east of Jakarta. Yet, here too, water
shortages are beginning to threaten the livelihoods of farmers,
especially along the province's northern coastal areas around
Indramayu. Elsewhere on the island, water levels in major
reservoirs have started to recede alarmingly. Any government
would be unwise to ignore Nature's early warning signals.

To be sure, Indonesia is no stranger to natural catastrophes
such as floods and droughts: As mentioned before, they happen
almost every year. The worst thing is, though, that rice is not
merely the staple food of the country's population, it is a
strategic commodity, the shortage of which could have major
political consequences that might destabilize the government of
President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

It is this latter consideration that is the reason why the
government's apparent lack of preparedness -- or, as some critics
say, lack of concern -- to anticipate the situation is rather
surprising and disturbing. It is not that the government doesn't
know drought is threatening farmland and farmers. State Minister
of Environment Nabiel Makarim, for example, acknowledged over the
weekend that shrinking water catchment areas in Java are causing
the water shortages that plague the island every year during the
dry season.

We fully agree with the minister that environmental
degradation is a major contributor to many, or most, of the
natural calamities this country has suffered over the past few
decades. To quote the minister: "In the last seven years, the
(period of) water deficit on the island of Java has increased
from four months a year to about six months. Apart from the
quantity, the quality of the water available has also
deteriorated".

His advice for correcting the situation is for provincial and
district administration officials to inform the population of the
periods when and where rains are expected to fall, "so that
farmers will know what to plant". The Ministry of Agriculture
reports that 200,000 hectares of paddy fields are currently
adversely affected by the drought.

BPPT, the government-owned Agency for the Application and
Development of Technology, is reportedly planning to resort to
artificial rain to help farmers overcome the worst of the current
period of drought. Some steps have reportedly been taken, both by
the central authorities in Jakarta and by local administrators in
the drought-stricken areas, to help farmers cope with the water
shortage, although the efficacy and adequacy of those measures is
doubtful.

Meanwhile, in Jakarta and in several regions threatened by
drought, government authorities continue to downplay the damage
that the drought might cause. Widjanarko Puspoyo, head of Bulog,
the State Logistics Agency, says, for example, that his agency
has a stock of 1.7 million tons of rice ready, which is enough to
supply the affected areas for eight months. If necessary, three
other rice-producing countries have committed themselves to
deliver another 1.1 million tons that could be sent immediately,
Widjanarko says.

All this is of course encouraging, provided it is true. In any
case, the authorities had better be forewarned of the possible
economic, social and political hazards should a serious food
shortage indeed occur as a result of a prolonged dry spell this
year. The experience of past decades, from the 1970s onward,
should have taught us the foible of ignoring the lessons of
history.