Nation in transition poised for elections
JAKARTA (JP): The following are the results of a survey on what the people think of the upcoming election, the story of which appears on Page 1.
POLL FINDINGS
Attitude toward the holding of Survey area the 1999 general election Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan Total ----------------------------------------------------------------- Believe it will take place 61.6 70.6 71.1 59.8 79.0 68.5 Don't believe it will take place 21.6 18.0 23.1 30.7 14.8 21.4 Don't know 6.7 3.5 6.3 3.6 2.4 4.3 Conditional trust - - 0.3 - - 0.1 Doubtful it will take place 1.1 - 2.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 Uncertain 9.0 5.2 2.4 0.8 2.3 4.4
Reason for believing that Survey area the 1999 general election Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan Total ----------------------------------------------------------------- will be held as planned Trust in Habibie's promise 65.9 56.7 53.1 38.7 62.4 57.1 If the election is postponed, foreign donations may be blocked 24.7 25.5 38.0 40.0 22.6 29.7 If the election is postponed, riots will erupt 8.8 6.4 4.2 13.3 5.3 6.8 People are demanding reform 1.6 3.8 4.2 2.7 9.8 4.3 Postponing the election will create difficulties for Habibie's government 0.5 10.8 1.4 9.3 1.5 3.9 It is a decree by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) 5.5 2.5 0.5 - 1.5 2.2
Reason for doubting that Survey area the 1999 general election Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan Total ----------------------------------------------------------------- will be held as planned It will be intentionally postponed to maintain status quo 62.0 82.0 78.1 71.1 68.8 71.8 Habibie's promise cannot 40.5 20.0 21.9 18.4 28.1 27.5 be trusted Lack of national cohesion 2.5 2.0 - 2.6 3.1 1.8 No good will from the government - 2.0 1.4 2.6 3.1 1.5 Soeharto's regime is still in power 1.3 - 1.4 2.6 - 1.1 Public dissatisfaction is still high 2.5 - - - 0.7 Government officials cannot be trusted 1.3 - - - 0.4
Factors that may postpone Survey area the 1999 general election Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan Total ----------------------------------------------------------------- Major riots 58.8 54.2 55.2 55.2 44.2 54.2 Pressure on the government by certain groups 40.8 41.0 33.3 24.0 32.1 35.5 Intentionally postponed by the government 23.8 19.8 21.5 26.4 24.2 22.7 No national cohesion 2.3 3.3 1.0 2.4 - 1.8 People dissatisfied with the present government 1.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 2.4 1.0 Laws governing election are inadequate 0.8 0.9 - - 0.6 0.5 No opinion 0.8 - 0.3 - 0.6 0.4 Opposition parties not ready to participate in election - - 0.3 - 0.6 0.2
Opinion on Habibie being Survey area reelected Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan Total ----------------------------------------------------------------- Certain people want Habibie to remain president 48.1 41.6 36.6 37.6 19.8 37.9 Habibie wants to remain president 31.8 27.8 18.3 23.2 42.0 27.8 Habibie wants to be president again but is shy about it 13.6 13.9 12.1 28.8 19.8 16.1 Habibie is confused 10.9 16.7 16.2 15.2 11.1 14.1 His stated desire to be reelected is only for the sake of foreign powers 12.0 9.6 13.1 5.6 5.6 10.1 Habibie does not want to remain president 12.0 3.8 6.9 2.4 5.6 6.8 Habibie wants to remain president only if the people support him 0.4 3.3 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.7 No opinion 0.8 - 0.3 0.8 - 0.4 Certain people want to use Habibie as a scapegoat - 0.5 - - - 0.2
Conditional optimism about Survey area democratic prospects in Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan Total ----------------------------------------------------------------- Indonesia Provided government institu- tions function well 38.4 42.9 30.9 29.8 27.9 33.9 Provided all sides/groups give their support 32.9 22.2 30.9 19.1 36.1 28.9 Provided Golkar is no longer in power/cleansed of the remains of the New Order 21.9 22.2 13.8 23.4 16.4 18.9
Provided the general election can be held in an honest and just manner 9.6 12.7 17.0 19.1 11.5 13.9 Requires a long time 8.2 7.9 16.0 4.3 4.9 9.4 If social conditions return to normal 5.5 4.8 6.4 4.3 - 4.4 If there is suitable national leadership 2.7 1.6 1.1 12.6 6.6 4.1 If differences in opinion can be accepted 2.7 - 2.1 2.1 9.8 3.2 If the Armed Forces (ABRI) takes a neutral stance 1.4 1.6 3.2 2.1 3.3 2.4
Survey area Optimism about democratic Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan Total ---------------------------------------------------------------- prospects in Indonesia It is already getting better/ in the right direction 63.6 41.7 59.5 65.0 47.1 57.5 The democratic process needs time 4.5 8.3 21.4 15.0 23.5 15.9 The general election is a good start 18.2 33.3 4.8 15.0 5.9 12.4 The people's political knowledge is already better - 8.3 9.5 5.0 23.5 8.8 There are many political parties 4.5 16.7 4.8 5.0 - 5.3 The freedom for democracy is guaranteed by law 9.1 16.7 4.8 - 5.9 3.5
Pessimism about democratic prospects in Indonesia Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan Total ---------------------------------------------------------------- There is no clear will of the government/it is the same as the New Order 47.4 26.1 22.7 41.7 57.9 39.5 Even the present condition is chaotic/marked by many riots 18.4 8.7 50.0 16.7 15.8 20.2 The more parties, the more confusing 10.5 17.4 31.8 16.7 5.3 15.8 The New Order still reigns 13.2 8.7 9.1 8.3 5.3 10.5 The Habibie government wants to maintain the status quo 7.9 30.4 - 8.3 - 9.6 The Habibie government is not able to carry out its duties well 5.3 13.0 0.5 8.3 10.5 7.0 There is no leader to follow 2.6 4.3 - - - 1.8 The New Order was better 2.6 - 0.7 - 5.3 1.8 The government institutions do not function well 2.6 - - - 5.3 1.8
What is the present condition Survey area of democracy in Indonesia? Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan Total ---------------------------------------------------------------- Very bad 26.2 25.4 26.9 26.4 38.3 28.2 Bad 44.5 46.4 36.7 36.8 41.4 41.3 Average 22.4 21.5 27.9 25.6 14.2 22.9 Good 5.7 5.7 7.8 10.4 4.9 6.7 Very good 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.8 1.2 0.8
The group that can boost Survey area democracy in Indonesia Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan Total ---------------------------------------------------------------- Students 54.4 49.8 51.0 74.4 48.1 53.9 Political parties 18.0 25.8 24.0 31.2 30.2 24.7 The media 19.0 13.4 14.7 12.0 8.6 15.5 Ulemas/prominent religious 16.9 14.8 16.8 18.4 8.0 14.5 figures NGOs 14.9 12.0 11.3 8.8 16.0 13.9 The House of Representatives 11.9 13.9 12.7 6.4 18.5 13.2 The President 10.0 12.4 8.9 6.4 5.6 9.0 The bureaucracy 7.3 8.1 9.2 3.2 3.1 7.2 The entire population 3.1 6.7 7.5 - 5.6 5.4 No opinion 0.8 1.4 2.4 - 0.6 0.4 Others 3.5 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.8 0.9
Opinion on democratic Survey area prospects in Indonesia Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan Total ---------------------------------------------------------------- Optimistic 12.4 8.4 22.4 27.4 22.7 18.0 Pessimistic 17.4 19.2 24.1 21.0 18.0 20.0 Optimistic under conditions 32.4 37.4 35.6 39.5 45.0 37.5 Confused/uncertain 34.4 35.0 15.9 7.3 10.0 21.7 Resigned 0.8 - 0.7 1.6 1.4 0.8 No opinion 2.7 - 1.0 3.2 2.4 1.7
Average estimate of votes Survey area obtained at the 1999 general Jkt Yogya Sby Dps Medan election ----------------------------------------------------------------- Golkar (functional group) 19.76 15.30 12.04 15.35 21.29 PPP (United Development Party) 21.16 14.06 11.21 13.17 20.34 PKB (People's Awakening Party) 17.53 19.24 26.83 16.86 15.35 PDI (Indonesian Democratic Party) Perjuangan 33.27 29.73 30.56 33.82 25.99 PAN (National Mandate Party) 24.75 19.62 21.26 19.16 28.12 Partai Keadilan (Justice Party) 10.64 6.90 7.82 5.95 6.95 PRD (Democratic People's Party) 4.72 5.18 6.14 4.36 5.56 Partai Bulan Bintang (Crescent Star Party) 8.23 7.05 7.44 6.21 9.26 Partai Keadilan & Persatuan 4.98 5.97 5.12 4.08 5.95 (Justice and Unity Party)