Name 'Yugoslavia' disappears, more problems emerge

Vladimir VOLKOV, Director of the Institute of Slavonic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, RIA Novosti, Moscow

The disintegration of Yugoslavia launched in 1991 has entered the new, perhaps, crucial stage. An agreement was signed in Belgrade to rearrange relations between Serbia and Montenegro, the two republics within the Yugoslav federation.

In fact, there is no Federation any more. Nor is there a country called "Yugoslavia". The word known in the Balkans and in the entire world practically all through the 20th century will no longer feature in our political vocabulary. From now on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia will bear the name of "Serbia and Montenegro." Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic has long cherished plans of seceding from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.

At first he said the plans were based on the desire to become free from the "despotism" of the former president of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milosevic. Then, after Democrat Vojislav Kostunica became the new president it turned out that Djukanovic's position had not changed and the separatism of Djukanovic himself, not the personality of a Yugoslav leader, was at issue. He would threaten to hold a referendum in Montenegro on the republic's future and only doubts over the outcome of the nation-wide voting which could yield an unfavorable result for the president taking into account the negative attitude of many Montenegrins towards Djukanovic's separatism stopped him.

Certainly, the separatist ambitions of the Montenegrin president were initially oriented towards support from the West which has been persevering with the policy of weakening and disintegrating Yugoslavia over the past 10 years. Prosecuting the policy of open blackmailing, threats and doubletalk and now promising to render economic aid to the country devastated by NATO bombings of 1999 then refusing it, the West insisted that the Yugoslav leadership give up its positions -- both in Milosevic's extradition to the Hague tribunal and in all affairs related to the future system of the country. It has become clear now that there is no more single Yugoslavia.

The Belgrade agreement implies the formation of a weak and loose confederation. Vojislav Kostunica will keep the post until the 2003 elections. Defense and foreign policy will be common, while the currency, customs policy and the economic system will be different. The economic independence of both Serbia and Montenegro actually makes the republics independent from each other minimizing the efficiency of the single political paraphernalia of power which become a pure decoration under the circumstances. More so since the agreement is evidently of a temporal nature.

Milo Djukanovic himself who has already told the press that he signed the agreement because under the circumstances it was expedient to postpone a referendum on the state status of Montenegro made it clear. Djukanovic stated that Javier Solana, the Foreign Policy and Security Chief of the European Union, who played a key role in drafting and signing the Belgrade agreement, had guaranteed Montenegro the right to hold a referendum in 3 years. It means that the Montenegrin leadership could readdress the issue of state sovereignty and, undoubtedly, Djukanovic who is satisfied with the agreement signed only as an intermediate step, will take advantage of the possibility to repeatedly raise the problem of Montenegro's secession by duly arranging a referendum.

Javier Solana has called the Belgrade agreement an important stabilizing factor, however, it is not the case. The agreement signed could even more destabilize the already complicated situation in the Balkans. This mostly concerns the status of Kosovo. Though the province is an administrative part of Serbia, resolution 1244 of the UN Security Council mentions it as an integral part of Yugoslavia without referring to Serbia. Now that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia has disappeared, Kosovo separatists may doubt the competence of the resolution and proclaim the province's independence, which has been already secured to them with the connivance of NATO peacekeepers. That is Kosovo's "Albanisation" will be validated de jure.

That's why Albanian extremists both in Kosovo and Montenegro with Albanian population living in its southern districts willingly support Djukanovic for, from an objective point of view, he serves their purposes. The final disintegration of Yugoslavia into two states would pose another problem too. Sandjak, an area on the border between Serbia and Montenegro, is mostly inhabited by Muslims who have long been willing to become part of Bosnia and Herzegovina. As long as Sandjak was part of the federal Yugoslavia, the problem, sensitive as it was, was not much trouble. If Serbia and Montenegro become independent, Sandjak will be devoid of its integrity and the problem will get much more acute for the Muslim population will get separated.

The current developments in the Balkans are a direct consequence of NATO policy aimed at encouraging separatism with the help of which the North Atlantic Alliance intends to drastically change the situation there, assume control over it and make it a strategic bridgehead in Europe. However, flirting with separatism and extremism is very dangerous. The Balkans are turning into a permanent seismic zone on the political map of Europe, which poses a serious threat for security on the continent.