N. Korea's Scuds: Die another day?

Tom Plate, Founder, Asia Pacific Media Network, Los Angeles

South Korea, with its pivotal presidential election next week, and the United States, watching those results like a hawk, need to do a better job of getting along -- at least until the fabled moment when North Korea throws down its guns, sticks up its hands and begs for mercy.

Right. Quarreling in public is dangerous. Who knows how the North Koreans might try to exploit it? For their part, the South Koreans are madder than ever at the United States. They're even ticked off at James Bond. According to a story in Variety, Hollywood's most influential publication, many are furious over the stereotyping of Koreans in Die Another Day the new Bond flick.

Student groups are calling for Bond boycotts, and Sir James isn't even American! It's true that South Koreans, easily shaken if not stirred, are a hard-working but self-admittedly emotional lot that sometime blame foreigners, including the United States (which guarantees their security against the North), for their troubles.

But the Korean problem with the United States right now is not all irrational anti-American exuberance: The recent U.S. military court-martial that exonerated two servicemen after a tragic accident in which their tank rolled over and killed two Korean teen-age girls poured no balm over troubled waters.

Neither did the recent high-profile meeting in Seoul between a U.S. official and the main opposition candidate. With what is likely to be a razor-thin presidential contest on Dec. 19, this staged event made it appear that the Bush administration had a favorite horse in this race.

Such U.S. meddling, real or imagined, is insulting to Koreans. It is also damaging to Lee Hoi-chang, the former judge leading the opposition charge against human-rights lawyer Roh Moo-hyun, the dynamic candidate of the party of President Kim Dae-jung, who instituted internal economic reforms and vigorous sunshine diplomacy with North Korea.

Lee, who opposes those policies, is not charismatic, but he is serious and thoughtful, a proud patriot and a nice man. But if he is elected, he will be widely viewed, fairly or not, as Bushs boy. That's why his meeting with the U.S. ambassador should not have taken place.

South Koreans are also cynical about the big deal being made of the Yemen-bound missile parts found aboard a North Korean ship in the Arabian Sea. So what's new? North Korea is a known serial missile exporter, for the hard cash it brings; such fund-raising is neither illegal nor new --and made more urgent by Washington's recent decision to abandon food and fuel aid to the North. What's curious is the story's timing. Is it being suggested that you can't trust those Commies -- and that accommodators like Kim Dae Jung and would-be successor Roh are naive peaceniks?

As the election goes down to the wire, the contest might seem like a nationwide referendum on sunshine policy. But much more is at stake, including the key issue of whether the countrys large conglomerates, known as chaebols (widely viewed as a major factor in Korea's near-bankruptcy just a few years ago), are to remain closely regulated. Lee, nearly a decade older than Roh, is comfortable with chaebol capitalism and would lift restrictions; in stark contrast, Roh insists on continuing the chaebol containment policy, pointing to the continuing dynamic recovery of the economy.

South Koreans have a historically important decision to make. Do they want to turn the clock back on efforts to end tensions on the peninsula and reforms to keep Korea's economy thriving? Or do they want to build on Kim Dae-jung's monumental achievements, which have been applauded not only by the Nobel Prize Committee in Oslo but by almost every government in the world?

The answer seems obvious, but I dont want to be accused of meddling. So I'm keeping my head down on this one. Its for the 35 million South Korean voters to judge, not us outsiders. As for the North Koreans, they will, just like the Americans, have to work with whoever is elected.

Though they may be selling scuzzy Scuds and threatening to unfreeze their plutonium-based power plants, in the final analysis, they will negotiate. They have no other choice. For if they were to provoke war with the United States and South Korea, they would be goners, no matter who is sitting in the Blue House next year. The ruling elite in Pyongyang, I would wager a big bet, would prefer to die another day.