N. Korean missile move 'unsettling'

By Edward Neilan

Analysts predict test firings may herald Kim Jong-il's formal assumption of power in isolated Stalinist state.

TOKYO (JP): North Korea's deployment of ballistic missiles capable of reaching Tokyo has heightened anxieties in the region but analysts believe the move has more to do with showmanship than a serious military threat.

The deployment of the Rodong 1 missile, spotted by a United States spy-in-the-sky satellite, comes just as the U.S. and Japan were announcing the results of a revised defense review which encompasses joint security options against any possible attack by the Pyongyang regime.

Also part of the backdrop are heightened preparations for the formal assumption of supreme power by "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-il. North Korea has been without an official political party leader or chief of state since the death three years ago of Kim's father, "Great Leader" Kim Il-sung, who was in power since the end of World War II.

The younger Kim has delayed taking power in observance of a traditional three-year mourning for Korean monarchs. There is speculation that Kim used the time to eradicate his opponents in a series of purges.

On Monday, an armed forces gathering endorsed Kim's ascendancy to the formal leadership of the military. Those attending the meeting swore to defend Kim with "the spirit of human bombs and the spirit of suicidal attack," the North Korean media said. This followed by one day Sunday's resolution by a provincial conference of the Korean Workers (Communist) Party recommending that Kim be appointed the party's ruling secretary-general.

"We can look for a missile test, with a couple of missiles splashing into the sea, in celebration of Kim's formal anointment, whenever that comes," said a veteran western diplomat here speaking on the condition of anonymity.

"They're going to steal a page from the Beijing scriptbook, using missile tests to get their message across like China did during the spring of 1996 near Taiwan."

In that situation, the U.S. responded by sending two aircraft carrier battle groups to the area to make sure China didn't go too far. As if anticipating some North Korea mischief, the carrier USS Nimitz and its battle group--which was involved in the Taiwan Strait imbroglio in 1996--began a port call at Japan's Yokosuka naval base on Sunday.

The diplomat added that tests will give North Korea some prestige at the four-way on-again, off-again talks among North and South Korea, China and the U.S.

"It also helps, at least Pyongyang thinks it does, in the negotiations with Japan on issues leading to normalization," he said.

Meanwhile, military observers discounted any possibility of North Korea actually firing missiles at targets in Japan.

"They'd be wiped out in the first exchange by U.S. missile retaliatory strikes,"said one Asian military attache.

A U.S. military satellite recorded images of North Korean Rodong 1 intermediate range ballistic missiles, reportedly capable of reaching Tokyo, being mounted onto mobile launchers, military sources said Sunday.

The Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported that the Japanese Defense Agency has asked the U.S. government for detailed intelligence since it is possible that North Korea is preparing to test-launch the missiles from a northeastern military base, the sources said.

Any elevation of Kim to formal chief of state status might help end his reclusiveness and prompt his meetings with regional and world leaders.

Meanwhile, any missile firing would be in keeping with North Korean style of making noise as part of the fanfare preceding negotiations or as part of an important event.