N. Korea, Clinton stir Japanese concerns

By Edward Neilan

Pyongyang's missile firing opens possibility of U.S response that would inflame region.

TOKYO (JP): Japan's worst nightmare is that a trigger-happy U.S. President Bill Clinton, in a possible "Wag The Dog" episode, might dispatch Tomahawk missiles against North Korea targets in response to that regime's ballistic missile firings.

The speculation was fueled by the firing by North Korea of a two-stage ballistic missile over northeastern Japan on Monday.

The two-stage missile was North Korea's first to be tested in five years and its fourth since 1984. The missile was said to be a new Daepodong 1 with a range of 1,240 miles, the South Korean Defense Ministry said. That range is twice as long as the North's previous Rodong series which has been sold to Iran and other nations.

The extended range puts most of Japan, South Korea, parts of Russia and China and even Taiwan within the missile's striking distance.

Retaliations for North Korean provocations have been virtually unthinkable since the end of the Korean War 45 years ago.

But that was when China and the Soviet Union were steadfast allies of North Korea. And when American presidents suffered without hitting back North Korean terrorism like the axe-chopping to death of a U.S. Army officer at the Demilitarized Zone, the shootdown of an SR-71 spy plane, the seizure of the USS Pueblo intelligence-gathering ship and a number of other incidents.

Similar terrorist adventures perpetrated by other regimes which the U.S. has labeled as "rogue states" have brought sharp American retaliation. North Korean mischief has brought only a reaction of looking the other way by U.S. presidents. Diplomatic avenues, always endorsed by Japan, have been pursued.

Japanese newspaper editorials, columnists and television commentators were quick to note the similarities that could evolve from a North Korean missile firing and a recent U.S. retaliation against suspected terrorism bases in Afghanistan and Sudan.

Military weapons expert Kensha Ebata said in a television commentary "Japanese officials rely on the United States in such matters but are afraid of how far the U.S. might go in retaliation."

Editorial reaction in the two mass-circulation Japanese dailies came to distinctly opposite conclusions.

The 10-million circulation Yomiuri Shimbun said the incident showed that Japan needs to work with the United States on the Theater Missile Defense (TMD) concept. The paper noted that the prime minister's office and the Foreign Ministry had pressured the Defense Agency to drop a budget request for TMD funding ahead of the scheduled visit to Japan of Chinese President Jiang Zemin.

Jiang's visit was recently canceled with the reason given as floods in China. Yomiuri said "Japan's foreign policy toward China (wariness toward TMD) should be criticized because it failed Japan in a security crisis, namely the missile firing."

The nine-million circulation Asahi Shimbun said even though Japan is threatened by North Korea "we should refrain from working with the U.S. on the TMD concept. It is more important to improve mutual understanding between Japan and North Korea, leading to lowering of tension."

Japanese newspapers' mocking of Clinton for his sexual peccadilloes has readily led to suggested parallels of the "Wag the Dog" syndrome, named for a movie wherein a U.S. president retaliates abroad to divert attention from his problems at home.

The consensus of analysts was that the firing was done by North Korea to get the world and the nation's own starving masses ready for the ascension to the presidency of Kim Jong-il, due to happen next week. The "all-purpose public relations shot," as one commentator characterized the firing, also served to advertise Pyongyang's technology to potential buyers, and to warn Japan and the U.S. ahead of separate diplomatic talks -- all vintage North Korean tactics.

Even a television clip showed repeatedly this week helped to focus on priorities. U.S. delegate Charles Kartman was shown arriving for talks at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations in a Yellow Cab taxi. The North Korean delegation arrived in a 1998 Cadillac limousine.