Myanmar's teps out to recovery

Lee Kim Chew, The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has once again regained her freedom, the first crucial step towards political reconciliation in Myanmar.

Her release on Monday from house arrest is an important milestone, but the road to democratic change will be long and arduous for a country that has been under 40 years of military rule.

While the generals have relented to world pressure to set her free, substantial differences remain between them and Suu Kyi.

The regime has signaled that it is ready to make a fresh start. Twice incarcerated in the past decade, Suu Kyi herself said her release was "a new dawn" for Myanmar.

A government statement in Yangon said some 600 political detainees had been freed in recent months and more would be released soon if they did not threaten national stability.

Significantly, the junta said it would let all citizens engage freely in politics. If the generals keep to their word, it heralds an important change in attitude towards Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD).

The regime also pledged to work with other countries to fight terrorism, eradicate narcotic drugs and combat Aids -- a signal that it is prepared to engage the U.S.

Clearly, United Nations special envoy Razali Ismail's efforts over the past 18 months to intercede between the generals and Suu Kyi have borne fruit.

But the mood for political reconciliation will have to translate into real political and economic reforms.

According to Suu Kyi, her freedom is unconditional and she can resume her political activities with no restrictions on her travel, as was the case previously. But the Nobel peace laureate said she would exercise restraint.

Goodwill is vital if both sides are not to slide back into unrestrained public attacks on each other, as they used to do.

But the expectations for genuine reforms are high, and neither Suu Kyi nor her supporters will be satisfied with cosmetic changes. Unless she makes real headway, all hopes for breaking the political stalemate will be illusory.

The generals will have to focus on genuine reforms and power- sharing to give the NLD a substantive political role. This is a tough nut to crack. Having braved international odium for more than a decade after refusing to honor the NLD's landslide election victory in 1990, the junta is not about to hand power over to civilian politicians now.

Indeed, the generals have spent the past 12 years consolidating their hold on power. Because the military sees itself as the nation's guardian, it will continue to be the defining factor in Myanmar politics for years to come.

To be realistic, Suu Kyi will have no choice but to play by the rules set by a regime that has vowed to do everything within its power to prevent a repeat of the 1988 nationwide revolt against military rule.

Which means that if it ever relaxes its grip on power, it will only do so gradually and on its own terms.

This sounds unpalatable to democratic reformers, but this is the harsh reality in Myanmar. It remains to be seen what the military, which has failed to sideline Suu Kyi, will do to keep her on a short leash.

It is unlikely that they will let her undermine their rule in any way. Suu Kyi will have to tread delicately.

For now, her freedom gives the regime a respite and this may open the door to more foreign aid. To this extent, her release can make a difference to the lives of ordinary people in Myanmar.

Suu Kyi has international backing, but it is inconceivable that she will be a goodwill ambassador to muster support for a regime she opposes.

She has to co-exist with the generals, but she will do nothing to bolster military rule.

She reportedly wanted free access to the regime's top generals so that she could continue her political dialogue with them.

She told reporters yesterday that she wanted democracy to come to Myanmar quickly. This is a tad ambitious. In any case, the tasks she faces are awesome.

One of the first things she has to do is to rebuild her emasculated party. As with many things in Myanmar, time has taken its toll on the NLD.

The party lacks proper organization and funds, and suffers from low morale. Its members have been intimidated and thousands have been forced to resign.

She has to breathe new life into the party, whose leaders -- chairman Aung Shwe and deputy chairman Tin Oo -- are in their seventies. Suu Kyi, 56, its best known leader and general secretary, is its only hope.

The regime will have to give her political space. What this will be, and what she makes of it depends on whether she remains an implacable foe of the junta.

She said her party had not changed its stand on opposing foreign investment, aid and tourism in Myanmar while the military government remained in power. She will have to take another look at the NLD's priorities without compromising her ideals.

Clearly, she has to be flexible. As she herself acknowledged, the country's tattered economy is in need of speedy change. Many investors have fled the country and thousands of workers have lost their jobs. Myanmar faces new economic sanctions from the U.S. and European Union if there is no progress in the talks with Suu Kyi.

Health services are grossly neglected and there is an Aids epidemic that the government refuses to acknowledge.

People in Myanmar are suffering and they need a lot of humanitarian help. Suu Kyi's freedom could help to alleviate their sufferings.

It could also open the door to political and democratic reforms, but this is not going to happen overnight.

UN envoy Razali has no illusions, saying: "Democracy is a point in the situation that will be reached much, much later."

Myanmar's generals are just taking the first steps to the country's salvation. But they need a reminder that this can happen only when they accept that Suu Kyi has a role in remaking Myanmar.