Myanmar's secret talks raise peace hopes

By Chris Johnson

BANGKOK (Reuters): Myanmar's military rulers and its pro- democracy opposition have raised hopes in some quarters by holding secret talks but most diplomats, analysts and exiles doubt much will change soon.

More than 10 years of brutal suppression of dissent in Myanmar has left many inside and outside the impoverished country deeply suspicious of the government and its motives.

Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD) have adopted an unwavering position that nothing less than full democracy is good enough for Myanmar.

All sides welcomed the news of the talks.

The All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF), exiled opponents of the Myanmar military, called them a "truly historic breakthrough" after 12 years of struggle.

"We hope this dialogue will begin to overcome the major problems of civil war and bring about democratization. This will start the process of healing and reconciliation," it said in a statement.

But few people expected any early breakthrough.

UN special envoy Razali Ismail had said in a statement after a trip to Myanmar this week that he was optimistic about prospects for dialogue between Suu Kyi and the military.

But Tuesday's announcement by a UN spokesman that the two sides had held initial direct talks and were expected to hold more substantive discussions soon was greeted with widespread surprise and some scepticism.

Suu Kyi and her party won the last general election in 1990 by a landslide but has never been allowed to govern. They have stuck to their nothing-but-democracy principle for years despite harassment and imprisonment by the ruling generals.

The military government, in power for most of the last four decades, has never shown any sign of relinquishing control and political analysts suggest they would be removed quickly if their own people could decide their fate.

U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright summed up the attitude of Western governments.

"Obviously we will have to see where it leads and whether it is a genuine dialogue, rather than the kinds of patronizing and cruel conversations that were evident when I was there," Albright said, referring to a trip she made to meet Suu Kyi in Yangon in 1995, when she was U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

Albright said the level of the dialogue was important, and it had to be one where Suu Kyi was taken seriously.

U.S. President Bill Clinton's administration has long argued for a dialogue between Myanmar's government and Suu Kyi.

But, until this week, there had been no progress and, in fact, intimidation of the NLD was stepped last year.

After several attempts to leave Yangon in protest at restrictions on her movements, the authorities have forced Suu Kyi to stay inside her Yangon home for the last three months.

Albright said Suu Kyi should be "respected as a political leader and not, as was framed to me, as a 'little sister', that they had to take care of by keeping her in her house".

Razali of the UN was the first foreign diplomat to see her since she was placed under house arrest in September.

Ishtiaq Hossain, a senior lecturer in political science at the National University of Singapore, said the Myanmar government had come under huge pressure in recent months from its neighbors to show some progress towards dialogue with Suu Kyi.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which admitted Myanmar as a member in 1997 despite protests from pro- democracy groups, has been embarrassed by the political stand-off in Yangon and particularly the treatment of Suu Kyi.

Razali's trip coincided with a visit by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad to Myanmar and diplomats say Malaysia has been trying to persuade Yangon to show that ASEAN's policy of "constructive engagement" with the military regime has worked.

Ishtiaq said Razali's role appeared to have been crucial in the progress towards talks.

"I am quite sure Razali has played a mitigating role, managing to persuade the Myanmar government the talk to Suu Kyi and to persuade Suu Kyi that the military government is not going to go away," he said.

The ABSDF student front was upbeat. "We're very optimistic. It has been a long conflict. This is the most positive sign we've seen since the general election held in 1990," it said.

But whether the dialogue ushers in democracy is a different matter.

Suu Kyi and the NLD appear to be playing a long end-game, relying on an implacable, principled commitment to democracy to ensure their ultimate goal is met. Any compromise might weaken their position and diminish the party in the eyes of supporters.

The leaders of the military government have little to gain from discussion with Suu Kyi, analysts say.

"The bottom line is that the military just want to stay in power. They won't give that up," said Birtil Lintner, a veteran regional analyst and author of books on Myanmar.