Myanmar's leadership change is aimed at its neighbors

Kavi Chongkittavorn, The Nation, Asia News Network, Bangkok

The dramatic changes inside Myanmar's top echelons did not occur in a vacuum.

They were meticulously calculated and executed and were aimed primarily at further consolidating the supremacy of the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and increasing its bargaining power against India, China and Thailand.

The latter two, which are closely associated with the recently dismissed Gen. Khin Nyunt, must now readjust their positions accordingly.

After years of fence-mending and improved relations, India and Myanmar are now confident enough to intensify and deepen their mutual engagement. At another level, Myanmar would like to use India as a countervailing force to China and, to a lesser extent, to Thailand. These countries share thousands of kilometers of border with Myanmar.

The emerging Beijing-Rangoon-New Delhi triangle will have far- reaching ramifications for ASEAN as well. In January 1995 in Bangkok the grouping came to the erroneous conclusion that granting Myanmar unconditional admission into ASEAN would decrease China's influence in the pariah state, as if the grouping would have a neutralizing effect.

Today, China's presence in Myanmar is highly visible in terms of both its economy and its security situation. In the 16 years since the crackdown on the Burmese pro-democracy movement, Beijing has been a most reliable supporter of the junta leaders.

While China continues to have strong relations with Myanmar, the latter also seems to feel the time has come to tilt towards its huge western neighbor. For almost a decade, India and Myanmar have proved beyond any doubt, through action and bilateral assistance, that they too are destined to become reliable, if not strategic, partners, especially in the area of cross-border security. India is keen to contain the insurgency along the Indian-Burmese frontier and to improve its strategic position vis-a-vis China.

Moreover, India is a big Asian player, no longer on the fringe of Asian matters. As a major dialogue partner of ASEAN with a yearly summit meeting with the grouping's leaders, India plays a big part in the win-win formula for the junta in the post-Sept. 11 world. Like China, India is not in any position to harm Myanmar.

Ironically, Myanmar, a rogue state, now has the world's two most populous countries acting as guarantors for the survival of SPDC hard-liners well into the next decade. It would be extremely difficult to ensure that the Burmese opposition led by Aung San Suu Kyi and minority ethnic groups have a say in the country's future.

With positive signals coming from India, Gen. Than Shwe's scheduled visit there will signal the start of this new regional power game. As the international community continues its outcry and condemnation of the possibly adverse affects this visit will have on the national reconciliation process, Myanmar will obviously allow India to gain additional footholds inside the country.

It is incumbent now on the world's largest democracy to determine whether it is willing to assume the role of patron of the rogue leaders and to what extent.

Thailand, meanwhile, is suffering from internal bleeding. Without Khin Nyunt, Myanmar has upped the ante and gained much- needed leverage against Thailand. Thaksin and Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai demonstrated a lack of diplomatic finesse and political leverage with their repeated claims last week that bilateral ties would not change because they were familiar with the new leaders in Rangoon.

What they did not say was that Thailand will have to pay a higher price to maintain the current Thai-Burmese status-quo. Even the slightest changes will cost Thailand a fortune. Thaksin's emphasis on making business deals at the highest levels, most of the time off the public record, simply plays into the hands of the junta leaders. With more than Bt10 billion in loan exposure to Myanmar through the Export-Import Bank of Thailand, Bangkok has no choice but to hold out even more carrots in the days and weeks to come.

To be more specific, Thailand's ongoing policy of appeasement towards Myanmar will not change. For nearly four years, Thaksin has single-handedly manipulated and backed the SPDC under the leadership of Gen. Than Shwe. Indeed the Thai leaders, especially Deputy Prime Minister Gen. Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, know the junta leaders quite well. Back in the early days of the crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in 1988, it was the maverick Chavalit who blocked internationally imposed sanctions by visiting Rangoon, legitimizing the Saw Maung regime.

But this does not mean that the Thai leaders have any influence over the Burmese leaders, old or new, as they would have us believe. The Tatmadaw (the military) is united when it comes to formulating policies towards Thailand. With a strong national ideology, it has excelled in manipulating regional and Thai support to prolong its grip on power. As things stand now, the prospects for democracy in Myanmar are quite dim.

While Khin Nyunt was still in power, the Thai government was constantly coming up with new ways to augment Rangoon's political legitimacy. Bangkok naively imagined that its regional influence would increase if it could persuade the junta to accelerate the national-reconciliation process. Success there would be a feather in the cap of Surakiart as he bid for the position of UN secretary-general at the end of 2006.

The so-called Bangkok process was conceived to break the ice between the junta and international community with selective countries chosen to participate in the first meeting last year. Thailand was also the first country to eagerly back the seven- point road map initiated by Khin Nyunt. Without him in charge, it is doubtful whether it will now be carried out.

At the regional level, Myanmar-ASEAN ties will be put to a severe test once again. Myanmar's status as the host of the 2006 ASEAN meeting hinges on consultations that will take place next year in Malaysia, one year before the designated host takes the chair. If the next ASEAN chair, Kuala Lumpur, maintains its current position on Myanmar, as expressed in the Myanmar Caucus within Malaysia, a tougher stance from the grouping may be anticipated.

For the time being, ASEAN's unwavering support for Burmese membership in the Asia-Europe Meeting was the regime's biggest victory since 1997. More than Europe would like to admit, Myanmar's admission to this key meeting in early October was tantamount to an acknowledgement of the regime's 16-year existence. Being a rogue state has really paid off.

At the upcoming ASEAN summit in Vientiane, Prime Minister Soe Win will meet the grouping's leaders. They will dutifully express support for Myanmar's new line-up and officially urge the junta to pursue national reconciliation. Sympathy will not be lacking. It is the ASEAN way, all the way.

Certainly Myanmar will be polite, as always, and respond with a peaceful and measured grin that when the time is right Myanmar will have democracy -- of course democracy by the lights of the SPDC leaders.