Myanmar's junta seeks power with legitimacy

By Dominic Whiting

BANGKOK (Reuters): Myanmar's military rulers are offering concessions to the pro-democracy opposition in a bid to improve their global image but analysts say they have no real intention of relaxing their iron grip on power.

They say the government's aim is to create a regime which allows the military to maintain a central role but gives the ruling generals more legitimacy in the eyes of the outside world.

The international community welcomed secret talks between the government and pro-democracy opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, which began in October, and became concerned earlier this year over reports the dialog had stalled.

But analysts said a recent visit to the country by UN special envoy Razali Ismail, who played a key role in brokering the talks, was a positive sign.

The recent release of 13 political prisoners and the reopening of 20 opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) offices in Yangon also suggested a thaw, analysts said.

"Razali clearly communicated that the international community was losing patience and that more evidence was needed to show that this is going to be a sustained process," a Western diplomat in Bangkok told Reuters.

"The talks had been going on for several months and they were greeted with great optimism, but then people started wondering if anything was happening and whether it was all just hot air."

Razali left Myanmar hopeful of civilian rule in four years.

But the NLD is frustrated that dozens of its members are still in government "guest houses" -- a euphemism for a loose form of detention. Aung San Suu Kyi is also under house arrest.

The human rights group Amnesty International says about 1,850 political prisoners remain behind bars.

Myanmar-watchers say any deal would involve reconvening a constitution drafting body, guaranteeing a military role in politics, giving the generals amnesty for any past rights abuses, and not allowing Aung San Suu Kyi to take political office.

But political analysts say without substantial concessions on power-sharing or other steps to solve the country's chronic political problems, the opposition is unlikely to strike a deal.

The NLD won Myanmar's last elections, in 1990, with a landslide victory the military did not expect or accept.

Analysts say the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) will not make the same mistake again, and will make sure the NLD is in no position to win another election.

"The recent developments are positive, but I don't see much real progress on domestic politics," said Chaiyachoke Chulasiriwongs, a lecturer at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

"The SPDC is weakening the NLD, threatening those who are not already in jail, while preparing its own political foundations."

A recent speech by SPDC Chairman Than Shwe calling on war veterans to be more politically active indicated the military could be preparing a vehicle to fight elections.

"The SPDC's more pragmatic faction is trying to create a kind of puppet political movement," said Sunai Pasuk, a researcher at Forum Asia, a Bangkok-based human rights organization.

"It's clever to integrate war veterans, which would underline the presence of the military in politics, and involve the youth movement -- led by children of regime members," he said.

"Political dialog gives the regime a face-lift but the SPDC will manage every aspect of the dialog to give an outcome in its favor. They won't want to repeat their 1990 mistake."

Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, highly respected by Myanmar's generals, has also hinted at some kind of accommodation to keep the military in power.

Earlier this year Mahathir said any future elections in Myanmar would not "undermine authority" and suggested the country could adopt other Southeast Asian political models, rather than Western-style parliamentary democracy.

But the pace and direction of change will depend largely on the internal power struggles within the ruling regime.

Rivalry between military intelligence chief Khin Nyunt and the SPDC's second ranked general, Maung Aye, to replace Than Shwe at the top has been simmering for years, analysts say.

Khin Nyunt seems to have the upper hand since a helicopter crash killed one of Maung Aye's powerful allies in February, and observers say he has recently succeeded in placing supporters in key regional military posts.

Khin Nyunt is seen as more favorable to some kind of political change, and analysts say he backs the talks with Suu Kyi while Maung Aye wants a hardline approach to continue.

"Khin Nyunt is more inclined to take the international community more seriously," the diplomatic source said.

Forum Asia's Sunai said Khin Nyunt would try to emulate Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, who won national polls in 1998 that were endorsed by the international community despite some intimidation of the opposition and voters in the run-up to the vote by ruling party officials and supporters.

"Khin Nyunt will have a two-pronged strategy -- keep the SPDC in power and achieve world legitimacy -- what I call ... dictatorship with a new face," he said.