Much worse than Krakatoa

With a death toll in the Indian Ocean nations of around 200,000 and rising, the Boxing Day tsunamis caused by the massive undersea earthquake centered near Simeulue island off the northwest coast of Sumatra, are by far the most destructive in recorded history.

Indonesia, with about 174,000 confirmed dead, has borne the brunt of this unprecedented natural disaster just as it did on Aug. 27, 1883 when 36,500 people were killed by two massive waves, estimated by eyewitnesses to be 30 meters high, which engulfed and destroyed the towns of Anyer and Merak in West Java and Telok Betong in Lampung following the cataclysmic explosion of Krakatoa island in the Sunda Strait.

But the death toll from Krakatoa was confined mainly to the shorelines in the immediate vicinity of the explosions; the tsunamis did move across the Indian Ocean and reached the town of Galle on the southern tip of Sri Lanka, where violent waves of three-and-a-half-meters high were recorded. But, apart from one women who was swept out to sea, no other casualties were reported in Sri Lanka or farther afield, although the effects of the waves were recorded on tide meters off the southwest coast of France some 17,600 kilometers away.

Indonesia has more volcanoes and more volcanic activity than any other nation on earth, and its vulcanologists and seismologists are among the most experienced in the world. These scientists have had considerable success in monitoring volcanic activity, particularly on Java where there are 21 fully active volcanoes, and providing timely warnings of eruptions.

Success in predicting earthquakes has been more elusive both in Indonesia and elsewhere. One can predict that further earthquakes will occur along this zone but where and when is unknown; however, it is certain that some of the answers will lie within this well-mapped subduction zone.

It is to be hoped that once disaster relief has reached the most needy, and the rebuilding of the ravaged infrastructure of Aceh and the other towns and villages across the Indian Ocean nations affected by this tragedy is completed, some funds will be made available for a concerted long-term international study of volcanism and seismology along the length of this particular tectonic plate boundary; one that is clearly the most active on the planet.

DAVID E. PARRY, Jakarta