MPR's call for calm gets cool response

JAKARTA (JP): A unified stance proclaimed on Sunday by all 11 factions of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) to reduce mounting political tensions got mixed reactions from observers with some saying it would help strengthen the plunging rupiah and others describing it as having little impact.

Senior political observer Soedjati Djiwandono said on Monday that he doubted the statement would have any significant impact on the escalating political tension.

The joint statement, he said, confirmed that there has been simmering divisions among the country's top political leaders.

"The fact that they felt they needed to meet together means it is exactly the opposite ... if they were really united, they should have remained as they were. They didn't have to prove to the people they are united by getting together like that," Soedjati told The Jakarta Post in a telephone interview.

He also said it was difficult to understand the meeting because "what they say is not necessarily what they think".

The factions said in a four-point statement that a deliberate effort to reduce political tension was necessary because the tension is detrimental to the country's efforts to recover from multidimensional crises.

The statement came as tension sharpened between the government and the legislature, as well as between the four top political leaders - President Abdurrahman Wahid, Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri, Assembly Speaker Amien Rais and House of the Representatives Speaker Akbar Tandjung.

Abdurrahman is due to appear before the Assembly in August to account for his turbulent ten-months in office.

Speculation is rife that the Assembly could try and topple the President during the session despite analysts' predictions that the likelihood of such a move succeeding is small.

"The MPR can do anything, but in principal, the August meeting is not an extraordinary meeting and yet it could developed into that if the members are not happy with the answers given by the President .... the possibility is there but I don't think it is likely," Soedjati said.

Despite the conciliatory tone of Sunday's joint statement, a direct assurance that the Assembly would not attempt or begin an impeachment of the President during the session was conspicuously missing.

The statement also fell short of declaring support for Abdurrahman.

Soedjati said the direct assurance was not put into the statement as "they didn't want to be committed by that".

He added that "having a change of government at this stage would be too costly for the nation".

"We can't afford that because the problems we face would be difficult for any government ... whoever the leader. The task is really tough," Soedjati said.

"What we need now is to continue to give him reasonable support. But he should strengthen his Cabinet. He should appoint people that he can really trust and who can work as a good team with coordination and real order of priorities."

Another observer, Rubiyanto Misman, rector of General Soedirman University in Purwokerto, Central Java, echoed Soedjati's sentiments.

"I think impeachment is not the best solution. It would only provoke disorder rather than stability," Rubiyanto said.

He noted that people had to keep in mind that Abdurrahman has huge base support.

He called on politicians not to let political ambitions get the best of them and to put state interests at the fore.

Meanwhile, Cornelis Lay of Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta believes that the show of unity by Assembly members will help ease political tensions that have seeped through to people's daily life.

"The call will give a positive impact to the market and the public. It will help the rupiah rebound soon, or at least stop it from sinking further," he said.

However, he said it will have no direct political implications on the Assembly. "It will not influence the MPR session next month. The session will occur as it should."

Possibly the most important lesson to be learned from the recent heightened political tension is that politicians should be more wary of their actions.

"We hope politicians and legislators can go away having learned they shouldn't play the market by conducting irresponsible political acts," he added.

Meanwhile, House of Representatives Speaker Akbar Tandjung reiterated on Monday that the August session would not become a special session.

"So, I call on all parties not too worry about that," Akbar, who also chairs Golkar Party, said.

However, he said that a special session of the Assembly could be convened whenever the House considers that a president has violated the Constitution and State Guidelines. (44/byg/har/jun/sur)