MPR Annual Session, 2004 election not important: Winters

Berni H. Moestafa, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Those who expect the 2004 general election will turn the country around need a reality check, according to American political observer Jeffery A. Winters.

While it seems that all the political parties have their eyes on the elections -- raising funds and haggling over amendments to the 1945 Constitution -- Winters said genuine reform would have to come from outside the political parties.

"The Annual Session (of the People's Consultative Assembly) is not relevant and I don't see 2004 as relevant," he said prior to attending a closed-door discussion with the Center for Indonesian Reform on Saturday.

The Annual Session of the Assembly, scheduled for Aug. 1 to Aug. 12, is expected to finalize the amendments to the Constitution. Critics have accused the parties of tainting the amendment process with their own political interests, notably winning the 2004 general election.

"Neither (the Annual Session or the 2004 elections) will bring any changes," Winters, a professor of economic politics at Northwestern University in Chicago, said.

He said Indonesia's reform movement was virtually dead, with its pace and direction having been put into the hands of the very people the movement intended to eliminate.

Although President Megawati Soekarnoputri might herself be committed to reform, he said, she has surrounded herself with remnants of the New Order.

Analysts say that rampant corruption, security problems and legal uncertainty are the true picture of Indonesia today.

They say these conditions have also weighed heavy on efforts to revive the economy, which has been reeling since the 1997 economic crisis.

Indeed, the economy may have taken a turn for the worse. Winters said the sale of cigarettes had fallen by a staggering 40 percent over the past two months.

"What this means is that poor people now can't even afford to buy cigarettes, even though they are addicted," he said.

Another example is the absence of foreign direct investment as a result of a poor investment climate. Since the 1997 economic crisis, more foreign capital has left the country than come in.

And Indonesia desperately needs foreign investors to fill the gap in its economy. Many business units of local conglomerates have gone bust or have left the country since the economic crisis.

Winters said investors would continue to stay away from Indonesia until legal certainty had improved.

"The Manulife case would have never happened under Soeharto; there would have been immediate intervention," he said.

Canadian-based insurance firm PT Asuransi Jiwa Manulife Indonesia was declared bankrupt last month in a verdict many said reeked of judicial bribery.

"I bet that 10 years from now there still won't be any economic recovery if we go on like this," Winters said.

Asked what Megawati should do, he said "a more viable question to ask was what steps will the people take".

He said the system with which the government was working must change, and this called for drastic moves.

People should not be afraid of a revolution that would bring about these fundamental changes. "Because it's obvious the shallow changes in Indonesia are not bearing results. The changes that occurred in Indonesia in 1998 are the shallowest in the world."

He was referring to the downfall of president Soeharto, which should have opened the door for real reform. Instead, he said, the reform movement died instantly the moment B.J. Habibie took over the presidency, allowing the New Order to consolidate.

Indonesia's current situation is ripe to bring about the revolution, but the people are not ready, he said.

"Famine and poverty do not necessarily become the burning material for a change," he said. "Something must direct them (the people) and give it a movement, a shape."

Considering those who are likely to run for president in 2004, Winters said that none had the potential to bring about real reform.

According to him, new leadership must emerge from outside the political parties. But as yet he has seen no signs of people wanting to repeat the 1998 movement that was needed to bring reform.

"If the system keeps running like this, Megawati will win," he said.