Moscow in search of a new solution to Chechnya

Yevgeny Verlin, RIA Novosti, Moscow

The situation around Chechnya has acquired a specific international meaning now. Europe and the U.S. are advocating a political settlement of the problem. Both would like to find "moderate" forces among Chechen fighters with whom Russia would be able to negotiate. Europeans have already found them while the Americans would like to conduct the search jointly with Moscow.

However, Vladimir Putin has not yet said anything publicly about the possibility of negotiating with the other side. This is logical, as it is difficult for him to speak about a political settlement after the recent Nord-Ost hostage standoff.

So far, Putin insists that a political settlement is possible only by the Moscow scenario, which entails the disarmament of the bandit groups. Since the bandits refuse to surrender arms and are staging terrorist acts, the algorithm of the federal actions is based on the predominant use of force.

The policy of pinpoint strikes is being complemented with the speedy elaboration of a new wording of the national security concept, which will stipulate the use of armed forces in the fight against terrorism.

Putin's phrase that "we are paying a high price for the weakness of the state and inconsistent actions" is interpreted by many to mean that we should have finished off Chechen bandits back in the mid-1990s and protect the country from terrorism.

That situation of seeming consensus was exploded by the opinions of several political heavyweights, who surely do not stand in opposition to the regime. They suggested different ways of a peaceful settlement -- on the sole but strict condition that the republic should remain part of Russia.

Arkady Volsky, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, said that negotiations is the only way to settling the Chechen problem. Consequently, Russia should begin by proclaiming truce with Chechnya, without which "no negotiations are possible." He believes that Russia should begin by negotiating with the clan and district elders and other respected Chechens who live in Russia.

Yevgeny Primakov does not exclude the possibility of negotiations "with at least some" field commanders, without which "the policy of transferring executive power to the Chechen side through local self-governments and security agencies will not succeed."

Yuri Luzhkov believes that we should "cultivate the Third estate" in Chechnya, "which would largely create the social core.

Only after, he says, "should we determine the position of Chechnya and discuss its future status."

In short, an influential part of the Russian establishment advocates dialog with the anti-Russian opposition in Chechnya. They believe that this opposition consists not only of such ruthless criminals as Barayev and Basayev.

Indicative was the statement made by Viktor Kazantsev, the president's plenipotentiary representative in the Southern Federal District. He spoke about the possibility of establishing contacts with "other Chechen representatives (with the exception of Maskhadov)" and said that the Russian leadership was "elaborating measures to resolve the Chechen problem."

Influential Russian figures admit the possibility of international mediation in the Chechen settlement. Arkady Volsky spoke about the involvement of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in negotiations, but added that "negotiations with international mediation should begin with the signing of an agreement with the other side under which Chechnya will remain part of the Russian Federation."

Volsky said other agreements should be signed simultaneously on the disarmament of the illegal armed formations and restoration of the Chechen Republic.

The appearance of such views shows that the Russian establishment is intensively searching for the answer to the eternal question: What is to be done? Nobody wants to lose face while formulating possible answers, yet Moscow simply has to react to the situation and the Western attitude to it.

It would be silly to quarrel with the EU or refuse to try to elaborate a common attitude to the solution of the Chechen problem. Besides, Russia's hopes that Washington's growing understanding of its stand would develop into full and unconditional solidarity may not come to fruition.

Moscow may decide to invite not the OSCE but some other mediator; it may choose the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). During the Oct. 31 session of the Russian Security Council Vladimir Putin unexpectedly suggested "spotlighting cooperation with the CIS countries in the area of security and struggle against international terrorism."