More turmoil ahead?

Tragic. This single word probably sums up better than any other the grim reality that what some people see as a major concession by President Soeharto has been received with skepticism and even downright rejection by the President's most prominent critics.

The President's televised address Tuesday was well received in some quarters, indicated by the fact that the stock market and the country's battered currency immediately strengthened on hopes that a compromise solution to the protracted conflict might be taking form. The President, after all, said he was prepared to step down, albeit only in a "constitutional" manner and after general elections have been held.

Some people may find fault with those more radical among Soeharto's critics who reject the President's apparent compromise gesture. On the other hand, one could -- on the basis of a number of facts relevant to the President's address -- also readily understand the suspicion that persists, or has even intensified, among Soeharto's critics.

First, on what basis did the President pick the nine community and religious leaders with whom he chose to discuss the situation before making his televised announcement? Conspicuously absent was, for example, Amien Rais, the leader of the 28-million-strong Muhammadiyah Moslem organization and one of the most vocal of President Soeharto's critics.

Among the other prominent leading personalities critical of Soeharto who were excluded from the consultations were Megawati Soekarnoputri, ousted chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party and daughter of Indonesia's founding president Sukarno, and various respected academics, some of whom last week presented substantial suggestions for change which the President said he would "thoroughly" study.

The inevitable question that this raises is, whose aspirations did the nine leaders represent? Certainly not those of the more outspoken government critics. The exclusion of vocal critics such as Amien Rais and Megawati Soekarnoputri could create suspicion that the President was deliberately trying to drive a wedge into his critics' ranks.

Second, the omission of a definite timetable and the fact that the President intends to personally supervise the reform efforts certainly do not help to inspire confidence among his critics. Soeharto said the country should hold a general election "as soon as possible" after a new election law has been put in place. This could take a long time -- possibly months or even years.

Third, as the crisis of confidence in the government reaches extreme proportions, many critics are no longer willing to put their trust in the President's integrity, suspecting he might merely be trying to buy time with this latest reform plan.

Given the apparently unresolved antagonism that exists between the President and his critics, it looks as if we may be heading toward a time of mounting pressure, growing disorder and economic distress and a further corrosion of Indonesia's image abroad.

To many people, it may look as if the President is testing their patience. What all this could imply for Soeharto, unfortunately, is that he might, by this latest move, be closing the door for a gracious exit for himself.