More turmoil ahead?

More turmoil ahead?

Tragic. This single word probably sums up better than any
other the grim reality that what some people see as a major
concession by President Soeharto has been received with
skepticism and even downright rejection by the President's most
prominent critics.

The President's televised address Tuesday was well received in
some quarters, indicated by the fact that the stock market and
the country's battered currency immediately strengthened on hopes
that a compromise solution to the protracted conflict might be
taking form. The President, after all, said he was prepared to
step down, albeit only in a "constitutional" manner and after
general elections have been held.

Some people may find fault with those more radical among
Soeharto's critics who reject the President's apparent compromise
gesture. On the other hand, one could -- on the basis of a number
of facts relevant to the President's address -- also readily
understand the suspicion that persists, or has even intensified,
among Soeharto's critics.

First, on what basis did the President pick the nine community
and religious leaders with whom he chose to discuss the situation
before making his televised announcement? Conspicuously absent
was, for example, Amien Rais, the leader of the 28-million-strong
Muhammadiyah Moslem organization and one of the most vocal of
President Soeharto's critics.

Among the other prominent leading personalities critical of
Soeharto who were excluded from the consultations were Megawati
Soekarnoputri, ousted chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic
Party and daughter of Indonesia's founding president Sukarno, and
various respected academics, some of whom last week presented
substantial suggestions for change which the President said he
would "thoroughly" study.

The inevitable question that this raises is, whose aspirations
did the nine leaders represent? Certainly not those of the more
outspoken government critics. The exclusion of vocal critics such
as Amien Rais and Megawati Soekarnoputri could create suspicion
that the President was deliberately trying to drive a wedge into
his critics' ranks.

Second, the omission of a definite timetable and the fact that
the President intends to personally supervise the reform efforts
certainly do not help to inspire confidence among his critics.
Soeharto said the country should hold a general election "as soon
as possible" after a new election law has been put in place. This
could take a long time -- possibly months or even years.

Third, as the crisis of confidence in the government reaches
extreme proportions, many critics are no longer willing to put
their trust in the President's integrity, suspecting he might
merely be trying to buy time with this latest reform plan.

Given the apparently unresolved antagonism that exists between
the President and his critics, it looks as if we may be heading
toward a time of mounting pressure, growing disorder and economic
distress and a further corrosion of Indonesia's image abroad.

To many people, it may look as if the President is testing
their patience. What all this could imply for Soeharto,
unfortunately, is that he might, by this latest move, be closing
the door for a gracious exit for himself.