More than a Democratic flop

Bantarto Bandoro, Editor, 'The Indonesian Quarterly', Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta, bandoro@csis.or.id

The U.S. midterm election on Nov. 7 resulted in control of Congress by the Republicans, a political advantage with which relatively few administrations have been endowed. Bush is only the third president in a century to make midterm gains, after Franklin Roosevelt in 1934 and Bill Clinton in 1998.

The result was a colossal personal triumph for the president as he pushes the UN harder toward backing his plans for a war on Iraq and strengthening his stand on war against global terror.

In this election, the Republicans were assured of 51 seats in the new Senate, a gain of two; and the Democrats had 48. In the House, Republicans have 227 seats, gaining four, while Democrats have 203. The results proved the ability of the Republicans to capitalize on the patriotism and support for George Bush, unleashed by last year's Sept. 11 attacks on New York and Washington.

The midterm election result was indeed a great disappointment for the Democrats. It was a dark moment for the American liberal. Frustrated Democrats lashed out at their political leadership for their failure to retain control of Senate or make gains in the House, as well as losing in some races they had been expected to win.

The Democrats have problems that will go beyond the difficulties they might face in the 2004 election when Bush stands for reelection. Not only this. Perhaps the Democrats might have to rethink their fundamental strategy to ensure that they can counter the Republicans' lead.

The triumph for the Republicans means many things for Bush's foreign policy. The midterm election is one whose results will reverberate, not just around America, but the world, from the UN to Jerusalem, Riyadh, Pyongyang, Baghdad, Southeast and East Asia and Europe. It will also push the White House realpolitkers, the Cheney-Rice-Rumsfeld lobby, to adopt a more rigorous approach to the world's issues.

What the world will see is a more swaggering and unilateralist America, more impatient than ever of treaties and other international agreements that it sees as limiting its power.

The victory of the Republicans has demonstrated that Bush will become even tougher against Iraq. The resolution the U.S. tried to win at the UN will establish a series of "trip-wires" for an attack, should Baghdad fail to cooperate with the UN weapons inspectors.

The resolution is expected to win overwhelming approval from the strong permanent five members, though France and Russia were still calling for the removal of certain ambiguities in the resolution. If the resolution is in favor of the U.S., it will be a very strong indication of the revival of "Bushism" in U.S. foreign policy.

The sweep of Republican successes has perhaps been a referendum on war against terror, Iraq, U.S. foreign policy and national and international security. Bush made that his drumbeat. He is determined not to let go of the uncompromising foreign policy style of the U.S..

The vote serves as a war mandate. The American people wanted to show solidarity with the Bush administration's war against global terror and their full support for the White House's national security approach.

Even before the Republican Party hit the jackpot in the midterm elections, war against Iraq was already likely. Now, it is inevitable unless Saddam Hussein fully complies with his international obligations.

Bush's management of current world affairs is not without risk to America's global position vis-a-vis the developing world. As the U.S. is leading a global war against terror, the developing world, particularly the Muslim world, will see Bush's policy as irrational.

Although little can be done by the Muslim world to counter the impact of the more unilateralist approach of the U.S., its reaction to the possibility of American attacks on Iraq tells the world of its disagreement over the use of force in handling international issues. The end results would be a new type of world order: The world, which seems to consist of those supporting global terror on the one hand, and those who are against terrorists on the other.

The U.S will now witness a more unilateralist, more belligerent and anti-environmentalist American presidency. Such characteristics will certainly bring the U.S. into a more rigorous approach to world problems, justifying the U.S. as the only superpower left in the world. It seems as if Bush has gained historic, resounding endorsement.

The Democrats would not oppose the president at a time of war. But these results will undoubtedly embolden Bush as he pushes the world body to back his plans to invade Iraq and the war against terror. The incalculable damage that such a conflict would do to world peace, rather than the tally of governorships and Congressional seats, represents the true scale and the real price of the Democrats' failure.

The Republicans' victory has provided a safe place for Bush in the U.S. 2004 election and has thus guaranteed a more belligerent and unilateralist foreign policy.