More submarines here to stay despite Russian accident

By Charles Aldinger

WASHINGTON (Reuters): This week's chilling Arctic drama involving a sunken Russian attack submarine will not dampen military and political enthusiasm among nations to send such weapons to sea.

The Cold War is over, but defense experts stress that quiet and deadly undersea boats are here to stay in growing numbers.

Twenty-eight countries already own nuclear-powered or diesel submarines and a half-dozen others are known to be seeking the stealthy craft that, like sharks, have for decades struck fear in military mariners on the surface.

Questions arise about the continued need for "boomer" subs that are more than 550 feet (165 meters) in length and carry long-range nuclear missiles. At the same time, missions are growing for smaller attack boats, from gathering intelligence to launching conventional and nuclear cruise missiles and transporting elite troops to alien shores.

"I don't see in any way that this accident challenges the requirement for subs," said Paul Beaver, an analyst with Jane's Information Group in London, as Russia pressed efforts to save the nuclear submarine Kursk's crew days after it sank to the bottom of the Barents Sea.

"We don't say every time a car crashes that we ought to abandon cars. Militarily and politically, subs are wonderful weapons," Beaver told Reuters on Thursday, adding that the requirement for them will grow, not shrink.

Submarines, note the experts, are stealthy protective weapons and the surface enemy always worries whether one is lurking about.

Such traditional adversaries as India and Pakistan and North and South Korea have attack submarines. The Argentine Navy fretted about British subs during their 1982 war over islands in the South Atlantic.

The U.S. Navy today worries about quiet Iranian diesel submarines bought from Russia for use in the Gulf's shallow waters.

The United States, Russia, Britain, France and China are the only countries with strategic boomers, each carrying numbers of very accurate long-range nuclear missiles to quickly retaliate against nuclear attack.

But along with several dozen other nations, each of those powers also has attack submarines designed traditionally to sink other subs or surface ships with torpedoes. Modern versions, such as the Kursk, can launch cruise missiles against ships and land targets.

"A submarine is a necessary piece of our arsenal as it has expanded its mission since the end of the Cold War, providing essential peacetime and war fighting capabilities for our national security," U.S. Navy Secretary Richard Danzig told Reuters.

"The unfortunate accident involving the Russian submarine only reemphasizes the requirement to continue to maintain our naval forces at optimal readiness," he said.

"Obviously, any country that wants to have a serious military capability is going to maintain hunter-killer (attack) submarines as part of a strategy of not giving up sea control, especially around its borders," said former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Robert Hunter.

"As for the big nuclear missile subs, obviously both Russia and the United States are reluctant to unilaterally give up those second-strike weapons outside of arms control agreements," added Hunter, now with the Rand Corp. think tank in Washington.

"This kind of thing does illustrate the need for getting on with START-3 (strategic arms reduction treaty)," he told Reuters.

John Wolfsthal of the private Carnegie Endowment in Washington said accidents involving submarines always raise the question of their need, especially in an era of nuclear missiles and power plants.

"Nations still have the need for submarines," he said. "But nobody talks much about a boomer going down with 16 or so nuclear missiles containing several warheads each. Imagine the problems of danger and contamination to the ocean involved in such a mishap," Wolfsthal said.

The Kursk accident, apparently caused by a torpedo explosion, was the latest in a half-dozen Russian submarine accidents in the past 15 years, including the collision of a Russian nuclear boomer with a U.S. attack submarine in 1993. Neither boat sank.

The latest Military Balance report from the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London lists 21 operational long-range missile submarines in Moscow's arsenal along with an additional 44 attack subs such as the Oscar II Class Kursk.

But few big subs are sent to sea these days due to Moscow's budget constraints. Many Russian attack boats are rusting at pier-side, waiting to be cut up with financial help from Washington.

The United States has 18 strategic missile subs and nearly 60 attack submarines, including two new, high-tech Seawolf boats. And the Navy is working on a new family of attack submarines for the decades ahead.

China has two strategic missile subs in addition to attack submarines and is known to be working on more modern boomers for its nuclear arsenal.