Moral victory for ASEAN leaders

Syed Nadzri, New Straits Times, Kuala Lumpur

Some of the most astute diplomacy appears to have been at play during the ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, where just about everyone from John Howard to Thaksin Shinawatra scored moral victories.

For a grouping that is getting somewhat overloaded with tasks, meetings and pacts, 10-member ASEAN has further discovered the complexities involved in community-building and international relations, surviving what could have been divisive.

Malaysia had reason to celebrate following a consensus at last on the holding of an East Asian Summit in Kuala Lumpur, which would certainly pave the way for the East Asian Economic Community it had been yearning for but feared by many outside the region.

It had not been easy to get everyone to agree and the nod received from Indonesia particularly -- and from Japan, one of the three non-ASEAN partners in the proposed set-up -- was quite unexpected.

ASEAN operates on strict consensus among members, which means that nothing moves should even one party object.

Officials say it was therefore a coup of sorts when Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono agreed to the idea, because Jakarta had shown no sign of relenting on its initial disapproval. The Indonesian camp looked adamant in the final days before the summit.

The crucial decision on the East Asian Summit has apparently sent several quarters scurrying for diplomatic bargains.

Australia, which is rejoicing no end at being invited to sit down and talk at the ASEAN table in Vientiane, is now also hoping to be part of the Kuala Lumpur summit and hence the East Asian Community.

"It's the way of the world now. It's all about free trade and national interests and everyone wants in quickly," says an official.

Australia's presence, along with New Zealand's, at the ASEAN Summit in Laos was supposed to be a one-off commemorative affair to mark a 30-year history in their relations with countries in Southeast Asia.

And Prime Minister John Howard was happy about that since Australia had for so long wanted to benefit from closer economic ties with the region, only to be met previously with stiff opposition from leaders like former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad.

Diplomatic sources say Canberra is very upbeat now that testy relations with some of its regional neighbors are on the mend, particularly with Indonesia. It is said to be wooing a more permanent place in ASEAN and the East Asian community.

Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said on Tuesday that it was still very uncertain whether Australia would get a seat at the next ASEAN Summit and the East Asian Summit, both to be held in Kuala Lumpur.

Howard, basking in the victory of being invited to Vientiane, appears to downplay the chances of appearing in Kuala Lumpur for now. But that could also be because of his defiance in not wanting to sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, which forms the founding principle of ASEAN.

This is a non-aggression pact which basically provides for a code of conduct in interstate relations, including the policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of one another. Seven countries outside ASEAN have signed it, including China and Russia.

But Australia, on the back of its US-inspired anti-terror policy of pre-emptive strikes, has refused to accede despite wanting a piece of the economic cake from ASEAN.

Although it is a non-compulsory treaty, Australia appears to have lost quite a bit of goodwill with its refusal to sign and this could affect its chances of settling in -- especially when backroom dealings start before ASEAN foreign ministers meet to decide on the program.

"We were surprised when Australia refused to sign. If they want to be part of the process, they have to identify themselves as part of ASEAN and be seen as going along with its principles," said Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar.

For all the hubbub over Thailand and Myanmar earlier on, the Vientiane Summit seemed to have stuck close to the non- interference principle because quiet diplomacy and tactful skills ensured that controversial issues concerning the two countries did not surface much. In fact, Thailand's insurgency problems in the southern provinces as well as Myanmar's stalled reconciliation process had no mention at all in the chairman's statement, the final document at the summit.

"At the last summit in Bali, at least the concern expressed over Myanmar was down in black-and-white. Now it's not. And neither was one about the troubles in south Thailand," said an observer.

Thaksin, the Thai Prime Minister, pre-empted the possible onslaught on him by calling aside Abdullah and Susilo on the eve of the summit to talk and, as diplomatic circles have it, explain his Government's side of the story.

So too Myanmar Foreign Minister U Nyan Win who, for one hour at a Press conference on Friday, gave an account of what the military rulers of his country were doing to restore peace and bring in democracy.

In the end, the two issues were swept away by what some delegates say were the more pressing issues in the grouping, such as the free trade arrangements with China and India.

"The two issues were not totally forgotten.

"They were brought up, but mainly on the sidelines," says a delegate.

It may be ASEAN's peculiar diplomacy of letting everyone win. But as the world gets bigger and demands more challenging, it could yet prove to be a losing strategy.