Monitoring the rumbles

Monitoring the rumbles

The Armed Forces has confirmed that alert command centers to
monitor situations and rumors that could incite social unrest
will be established nationwide on Jan. 30. Creating the alert
centers, first announced by President Soeharto some 10 days ago,
is an effort to prevent the recurrence of riots like those in
Situbondo and Tasikmalaya near the end of last year.

The centers will be stationed in district military command
(KODIM) posts nationwide and will be headed by KODIM chiefs.
People can pass on information about rumors of possible unrest to
the centers, which will then investigate the agitators. Reports
drawn up by the centers will be brought to provincial
administration council meetings. The centers will be permanent
establishments but they will not take over police functions and
will only take preventive measures.

Given the heavy losses in the recent riots, and particularly
considering their impact on the nation's psyche and sense of
unity, one could agree that we must stop riots from recurring.
Nobody wants to see this nation disintegrate. The question is,
will the centers be able to prevent riots from happening?

One would think that monitoring the situation was a daily task
of the authorities, either the bureaucracy or the military. The
fact that they failed to detect the forewarnings signaling the
unrest in Situbondo and Tasikmalaya is an indication that
something is wrong with the existing monitoring system. News
reports said that prior to the riots a number of people had tried
to report the potential for an outbreak to occur to the
authorities, but somehow officials failed to respond properly. If
this is true, it indicates a breakdown in communications that
must be immediately remedied.

We believe the establishment of alert centers could indeed
help prevent outbreaks of unrest in society -- up to a certain
point. A quick response from the authorities could possibly
prevent riots by stopping rumors from spreading, or even by
arresting suspected agitators before they can do harm. But we do
not think establishing the centers is really the answer to
preventing social unrest.

The basic idea behind establishing the riot alert centers is
apparently the belief that the riots were instigated by a "third
party". Thus far the authorities have accused numerous groups --
from "dissidents" and "Maoists", "subversive extreme leftist and
rightist groups" to "hoodlums" -- of masterminding the riots,
although the authorities have yet to provide hard evidence to
back up their allegations. But could it not be possible that the
riots were spontaneous outbreaks triggered by genuine grievances
against perceived injustices?

We believe that what should first and foremost be tackled is
the root of the problem: the cause of social unrest. Social
unrest should occur only if the elements for unrest prevail, be
it social disparities, social injustice, disharmony among
religious groups, a crisis of confidence in the authorities or a
distrust of the legal system. And as many political analysts have
acknowledged, at the moment there is widespread dissatisfaction
regarding those issues. "They are like dry leaves which are
easily burned", as one observer described the people.

In such a situation it is regrettable that rather than
tackling the problem many officials prefer to shift the issue by
seeking, for instance, scapegoats. Have they become so alienated
from the people that they no longer sense the widespread
disillusionment? Have their hearts become so calloused that they
fail to hear the heart-beat of the masses?

Monitoring the people's real feelings is actually not such a
difficult task. Anyone who is sincerely willing to put his ear to
the ground would certainly be able to hear the distant rumbling.
And we believe that nobody in this country wants that rumble to
grow into a roar, or a thunder, or let the dry leaves ignite and
cause a bush fire -- something that might happen if nothing is
done immediately.