Miscalculation shapes political alliance
The joint election campaign between supporters of the United Development Party (PPP) and those of Megawati, the ousted leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), has gained people's attention. Sociologist Loekman Soetrisno of Gadjah Mada University shares his view on this occurrence with The Jakarta Post.
Question: How do you see this new development?
Answer: It shows that the government has been very wrong in judging Megawati. She had been seen as an obstacle for the dominant Golkar in the election, which led to her being ousted from PDI by a government-backed congress in Medan, North Sumatra, last year. It turned out to be a miscalculated step.
You see, Soerjadi (the government-recognized PDI leader) has nothing. It's in fact Megawati who has the power over PDI supporters. The ousting has even invited people to heap their sympathy on her.
She is smart. With all the support she has, she asked her supporters not to join the campaign. Apparently she has been thinking of entrusting her supporters' votes to PPP. The alliance, therefore, is shaping a stronger opponent against Golkar. That's why I say this is a government mishap.
Q: What if the mishap never occurred?
A: Had Megawati been treated fairly, such a thing would have probably never happened. The explanation is simple.
It's quite obvious that PDI's veteran supporters, such as former members of the Indonesian National Party (before being merged into PDI), will never give their votes to Golkar which they blame for the present PDI internal leadership fiasco. They won't give them to Soerjadi's PDI either, because they see it's worthless to do so. At the same time, they have no intention to boycott the election.
As a result, PPP emerges as the only choice for them. They see it as the best choice among the worsts. For them, anything will do as long as it's not Golkar or government-backed PDI. There will be, therefore, only two parties which will be competing for the votes. This is dangerous.
Q: Why is that?
A: People, including foreign observers, will question the validity of the election, and especially the existence of Soerjadi's PDI as a contestant. It's quite obvious that it will get an insignificant amount of votes.
Yet, what concerns me more is the possibility that PDI will disappear for good. Soerjadi's PDI has no roots at all. There is no way for it to gain significant votes.
Q: But, it's alright to have only two political parties, isn't it?
A: Of course it's alright. The question is, do we want it. If we do, PPP then should transform itself into a more independent and open party, instead of a Moslem-oriented one. That will enable it to attract non-Moslem voters as well.
Q: Soerjadi's party could only make an alliance with either Golkar or PPP, couldn't it?
A: I don't think Soerjadi will be willing to do that. It's impossible for him to do so. He will stubbornly maintain his existence.
Q: What's the best way for him to go about it then?
A: Soerjadi certainly has to self-correct himself through introspection. He should restore Megawati's leadership. He can do that after the election. He has to do it for the sake of a healthy political life in the future for the three groups. It's the only thing he could do.
Q: What about those supporters who currently back him?
A: It's certainly them who should be the most ashamed. They prove they have no power in developing Soerjadi's PDI. They have taken the wrong step. As I've been saying for a long time, there is no need to launch political engineering. It's very childish.
Q: What will happen if the alliance wins a significant amount of votes?
A: The alliance will continue to develop. People like Mudrick Sangidoe (PPP's outspoken Surakarta branch chief), I think, will try harder to make PPP a more open party.
Q: There has also been an interesting development in Bali where Hindu leaders are considering to issue a statement which allows Hindus to vote for PPP...
A: It's another development. As you see, Bali is one of PDI's strongholds. Again, it's the way the government handles Megawati which makes these things happen. The government has underestimated her. Megawati is, in fact, very powerful. People's loyalty toward her, and her father Sukarno (the first president), is still very strong.
As I always say, a good government never creates ammunition to shoot itself or a hero to challenge its own leader. Now Megawati has become a heroine. Even without doing anything, she is extremely powerful.
Q: Could such a development cause vote rigging in an election tightly controlled by the government?
A: It could. The question is, can it be done. The international community will not tolerate such a thing, and neither will other parties' poll-monitoring officials. You see, PPP's cadres are more courageous nowadays. They won't let such a thing happen.
Besides, people are also getting more critical. They can no longer stand political deception. This is the line of thinking which explains the background of the incident in the Central Java town of Pekalongan recently, where people threw stones at civil servants' homes. (swa)
Editorial -- Page 4