Miscalculation shapes political alliance

Miscalculation shapes political alliance

The joint election campaign between supporters of the United
Development Party (PPP) and those of Megawati, the ousted leader
of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), has gained people's
attention. Sociologist Loekman Soetrisno of Gadjah Mada
University shares his view on this occurrence with The Jakarta
Post.

Question: How do you see this new development?

Answer: It shows that the government has been very wrong in
judging Megawati. She had been seen as an obstacle for the
dominant Golkar in the election, which led to her being ousted
from PDI by a government-backed congress in Medan, North Sumatra,
last year. It turned out to be a miscalculated step.

You see, Soerjadi (the government-recognized PDI leader) has
nothing. It's in fact Megawati who has the power over PDI
supporters. The ousting has even invited people to heap their
sympathy on her.

She is smart. With all the support she has, she asked her
supporters not to join the campaign. Apparently she has been
thinking of entrusting her supporters' votes to PPP. The
alliance, therefore, is shaping a stronger opponent against
Golkar. That's why I say this is a government mishap.

Q: What if the mishap never occurred?

A: Had Megawati been treated fairly, such a thing would have
probably never happened. The explanation is simple.

It's quite obvious that PDI's veteran supporters, such as
former members of the Indonesian National Party (before being
merged into PDI), will never give their votes to Golkar which
they blame for the present PDI internal leadership fiasco. They
won't give them to Soerjadi's PDI either, because they see it's
worthless to do so. At the same time, they have no intention to
boycott the election.

As a result, PPP emerges as the only choice for them. They see
it as the best choice among the worsts. For them, anything will
do as long as it's not Golkar or government-backed PDI. There
will be, therefore, only two parties which will be competing for
the votes. This is dangerous.

Q: Why is that?

A: People, including foreign observers, will question the
validity of the election, and especially the existence of
Soerjadi's PDI as a contestant. It's quite obvious that it will
get an insignificant amount of votes.

Yet, what concerns me more is the possibility that PDI will
disappear for good. Soerjadi's PDI has no roots at all. There is
no way for it to gain significant votes.

Q: But, it's alright to have only two political parties, isn't
it?

A: Of course it's alright. The question is, do we want it. If we
do, PPP then should transform itself into a more independent and
open party, instead of a Moslem-oriented one. That will enable it
to attract non-Moslem voters as well.

Q: Soerjadi's party could only make an alliance with either
Golkar or PPP, couldn't it?

A: I don't think Soerjadi will be willing to do that. It's
impossible for him to do so. He will stubbornly maintain his
existence.

Q: What's the best way for him to go about it then?

A: Soerjadi certainly has to self-correct himself through
introspection. He should restore Megawati's leadership. He can do
that after the election. He has to do it for the sake of a
healthy political life in the future for the three groups. It's
the only thing he could do.

Q: What about those supporters who currently back him?

A: It's certainly them who should be the most ashamed. They prove
they have no power in developing Soerjadi's PDI. They have taken
the wrong step. As I've been saying for a long time, there is no
need to launch political engineering. It's very childish.

Q: What will happen if the alliance wins a significant amount of
votes?

A: The alliance will continue to develop. People like Mudrick
Sangidoe (PPP's outspoken Surakarta branch chief), I think, will
try harder to make PPP a more open party.

Q: There has also been an interesting development in Bali where
Hindu leaders are considering to issue a statement which allows
Hindus to vote for PPP...

A: It's another development. As you see, Bali is one of PDI's
strongholds. Again, it's the way the government handles Megawati
which makes these things happen. The government has
underestimated her. Megawati is, in fact, very powerful. People's
loyalty toward her, and her father Sukarno (the first president),
is still very strong.

As I always say, a good government never creates ammunition to
shoot itself or a hero to challenge its own leader. Now Megawati
has become a heroine. Even without doing anything, she is
extremely powerful.

Q: Could such a development cause vote rigging in an election
tightly controlled by the government?

A: It could. The question is, can it be done. The international
community will not tolerate such a thing, and neither will other
parties' poll-monitoring officials. You see, PPP's cadres are
more courageous nowadays. They won't let such a thing happen.

Besides, people are also getting more critical. They can no
longer stand political deception. This is the line of thinking
which explains the background of the incident in the Central Java
town of Pekalongan recently, where people threw stones at civil
servants' homes. (swa)

Editorial -- Page 4