Milosevic's arrest: End of the revolution?

By Philippa Fletcher

BELGRADE (Reuters): Yugoslavia's new leaders said on Sunday the arrest of Slobodan Milosevic marked the end of the democratic revolution begun in October on the streets of Belgrade.

The international community was not so sure.

Western diplomats said it was a bold and spectacular gesture which would help persuade Washington that Yugoslavia had broken sufficiently with the past to earn Congressional support.

The almost total lack of popular opposition beyond the few stalwarts in a self-styled "National Guard" outside Milosevic's villa was also a key sign of a change in the public mood.

But diplomats said the standoff that preceded the arrest had revealed the fragility of the new leadership, which faces an uphill struggle to make serious charges stick against a man famed for covering his tracks.

Hardline elements were clearly still lurking, they said, and would attempt to turn Milosevic into a martyr.

Only when he and other indictees faced trial for war crimes could there be a real break with the past.

Facing an ethnic Albanian insurgency along the border with Kosovo and the determination of the leaders of Serbia's one remaining Yugoslav federation partner, Montenegro, to break away, the reformists will have to work hard to keep the peace.

"Apart from relief that the big fish is finally behind bars there is a realization that the situation is pretty delicate," a diplomat in Belgrade said.

Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic, the key figure behind the popular revolt that forced Milosevic to accept election defeat last year, acknowledged that there had been a "lack of synchronization" within the Yugoslav army during the standoff.

But he said it had not damaged relations within the ruling coalition and had sent a strong signal that "abuse doesn't pay".

"What started on Oct. 5 ended today in a manner of speaking," Tanjug news agency quoted him as saying.

Western leaders preferred to characterize the arrest as a "step" and many of them referred to expectations that the Yugoslav public would have to face the legacy of his rule by seeing Milosevic tried in The Hague for war crimes.

"Just by being in the country, he will always be a rallying point for dissent," a second diplomat said.

The chief UN war crimes prosecutor Carla del Ponte has said she wants an early commitment from the authorities to hand him over to face war crimes charges before the end of the year.

That is something to which the leadership, in particular Yugoslav President Vojsilav Kostunica, is adamantly opposed.

Other leaders say they want to put him on trial at home before extradition, to demonstrate to Serbs the role he played in the disastrous economic situation they find themselves in -- a view with which some Westerners sympathize.

"There's a distinct possibility he could become a martyr if that were not the case," said a senior Western envoy.

As Milosevic's allies have gleefully pointed out, there is a long way between an arrest and a conviction, especially one that fits with Milosevic's reputation as a ruthless dictator and instigator of four Balkan wars.

He has hired a formidable lawyer, Toma Fila, who defended four Dutchmen accused of espionage by Milosevic late last year and has so far been remanded in custody for just 30 days on suspicion of diverting federal customs funds.

"They're trying to avoid the Al Capone scenario and there's reason to be optimistic in that respect," the envoy said referring to the murderous U.S. gangster jailed for tax fraud.

Several officials acknowledged that the arrest was part of a process that would have to continue.

"The peaceful arrest of Slobodan Milosevic after a 30-hour siege has given full meaning to the essence of democratic reforms which started on Oct. 5," Yugoslav Information Secretary Slobodan Orlic told BK television.

"I personally expect the new authorities to remain consistent in pursuing the rule of law and establishing the responsibility of all those who led to Serbia's economic destruction and the criminalisation of its society," he said.

Serbian Justice Minister Vladan Batic said the arrest was the most important prerequisite for the continuation of reform.