Millennium Bug: Do we still have the time to cope with the impact?

By Zatni Arbi

JAKARTA (JP): Think of a typical computer program as a stairway to the sky. On each step, you must pause, look carefully and try to locate one or more land mines -- if there are any. Land mines are instructions written by programmers which tell the computer to check the date in the form `DD/MM/YY'. Each time one appears it must be fixed. For example, you can change the date field to `DD/MM/CCYY' (CC represents the century digits). When you arrive at the top of the stairway, you'll have eliminated the Millennium Bug from the program.

The problem is, there may be millions of instruction lines in the application. It means there are millions of steps to take before reaching the end of the program. Bank Central Asia (BCA) for example, had close to 11 million instruction lines in all their applications. Chase Manhattan reportedly has 200 million lines, and Citicorp 400 million lines. General Motor has two billion lines of codes. The magnitude of the task becomes clearer.

There are tools available -- some are even free -- that can help locate the landmines. Unfortunately, tools like HourGlass 2000, Simulate 2000 and TicToc can only uncover about 80 percent of them. The rest have to be hunted manually and meticulously, one line at a time.

The size of the task is not the only frightening factor. In the beginning, the Gartner Group estimated the cost of making applications Y2K compliant would be US$1.00 per line of code. Unfortunately, because of worldwide complacence and procrastination, corporations all over the world are now competing for professionals who will do the job. As demand skyrockets and supply becomes scarcer, the latest estimate by Gartner puts the cost at US$6.49 per line of code!

Actually, it is not all bad news. The number of companies offering millennium bug repair services in Indonesia is growing. Companies like Asian Infotech Prima, Datacraft, Hewlett-Packard, IFS Indonesia, Midas Kapiti, Oracle and IBM have a pool of information technology professionals who will help.

Why professional help? Because there are certain procedures that have to be followed and these professionals are trained for the job. But unless prompt action is taken, all the services offered by these companies will be useless.

Usually, a millennium effort starts with the formidable task of convincing the board of the importance of making one's company Y2K compliant. This is probably the most challenging part of the entire undertaking, because there will be no tangible benefits that management will immediately see. It has become a common practice to invite senior information technology officers from other companies to convince reluctant boards of directors. Once the project has the green light, the rest is easy.

The millennium project usually starts with an inventory of all the company's hardware, software and applications. PCs that were built after 1997, in general, are Y2K compliant. Older systems have to be checked. Vendors like HP, Compaq and IBM provide information on which models are Y2K compliant and which systems need to be upgraded or scrapped.

Next, a millennium team will formulate a work strategy. What will the company do to make each component Y2K compliant? What is the time frame? How many working hours will be required? The next stage is the repair program. Operating systems may have to be upgraded to handle the new date format. Applications may need to be patched or even rewritten. Data may have to be converted.

Along the way, testing must occur to check for errors. In the BCA case, between 45 percent to 65 percent of the entire project time was spent on testing alone. Internal auditing should continually check for the possible of any new errors. It is a tremendously time consuming job and that is why company's require the specialized knowledge offered by experts.

Once all the hardware, software and applications pass the test for Y2K compliance, checks still have to be made to see whether embedded chips in air conditioners, the elevator to the data center and even the generator in the basement are Y2K compliant. Even after a company has verified that they are, can it proudly declare 100 percent compliancy?

A declaration might be premature. The best to be said is that standard procedure for ensuring Y2K compliance with satisfactory results have been followed. Remember that no institution, organization, business entity or manufacturer in the world can guarantee that it is completely free of the millennium bug.

It is pertinent to remember in the highly integrated world of manufacturing or business, that suppliers are often connected directly to a company's system as are its distributors. There is little joy if a company is Y2K compliant when its business partners are not.

The millennium problem has complex and far-reaching consequences. It has become a global predicament of such magnitude that legislators are considering limiting the liability of non-compliant businesses after the turn of the century. A debate continues to rage about who should be protected: businesses or their customers?

The millennium bug is a world problem. The World Bank recently conducted a survey of 139 developing countries to discover only 15 percent had started addressing the problem. It has offered assistance to these countries. For instance, the bank provided a US$100 million loan to Malaysia alone.

Despite the presence of experienced companies offering their services to solve the millennium bug, there has been little urgency expressed about the problem in this country.

A possible reason is the host of problems jostling for position on the agenda of our policy makers, such as the upcoming general election and political reform. This is an unfortunate prioritization because the year 2000 will occur in less than nine months regardless of the election outcome.

With so little time left, it appears that it may be too late to do anything.

And will Indonesians blame the pending chaos -- as we usually do -- on fate?