Military unlikely to quit politics: Experts
Kurniawan Hari, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
As Maj. Gen. Kohirin Suganda was wrapping up the military/police faction's comments on President Megawati Soekarnoputri's progress report at the last People's Consultative Assembly session on Saturday, he suddenly recited a poem titled Pamit (Farewell).
The poem implied that the Indonesian military (TNI) had played an important role in the independence struggle and during the so- called development era, and that the reform movement had forced it to leave politics.
The military/police faction has 38 members in the Assembly and the House of Representatives.
Experts suggested on Wednesday that the TNI and police would officially quit the House on Thursday, but would never leave politics entirely.
Analysts Ikrar Nusa Bakti of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences and Fachry Ali of the Institute for the Study and Advancement of Business Ethics said on Wednesday the military would continue to carry political weight, even outside the legislative body.
"After all, the TNI is not a professional military. I think the TNI is a political military," said Ikrar told The Jakarta Post.
The military, which has been represented in the House since 1960, is to quit the legislative body today as part of reforms it has undertaken since the downfall of former president Soeharto in 1998.
During a discussion in 2002 of amendments to the 1945 Constitution, the Assembly, the country's highest legislative body, agreed that all members be directly elected in a general election.
Since the TNI and police are not permitted to set up political parties, the decision virtually ruled out the possibility of active military and police officers holding a seat in the Assembly, which comprises the House and the Regional Representatives Council.
New House and regional council members elected on April 5 are to be sworn in on Friday.
Ikrar said at least two reasons existed as to why the TNI would likely continue to wield political influence: its historical claim and competence.
The TNI's historical claim is that it played a crucial role in nation building since the independence struggle, while its institutional competence gives the TNI confidence that it can do a better job than civilians.
The victory of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a retired four-star Army general, in the landmark presidential election could boost the TNI's self-image.
Fachry, meanwhile, said the TNI as an institution may not meddle in political affairs, but its personnel would still have a strong influence on national politics.
"Just like Muslim organizations Muhammadiyah and Nahdlatul Ulama, the TNI will still have political influence," he said.
Both Ikrar and Fachry agreed that the position of TNI commander, which is often perceived to be on a par with a Cabinet minister and thus included in Cabinet meetings, would preserve TNI's political influence.
"As long as the TNI commander is invited to Cabinet meetings, the TNI will continue to play politics. The TNI can make recommendations on various issues," Ikrar said.
Separately, Golkar secretary-general Lt. Gen. (ret) Budi Harsono said Oct. 1 would be an historical day, not only for the TNI, but also for the nation's democracy.
"The TNI's exit from the House will also mean its exit from politics," said Budi, a former chairman of the House military/police faction.
Budi hoped the TNI would become more professional and focused on its duties to maintain national security.