Military faces dilemma at MPR General Session

By D. Ali Nurdin

JAKARTA (JP): The Indonesian Military (TNI) may have passed the test of neutrality in the 1999 general election, but the real test will be the presidential election at the General Session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) in November.

As a political force with a guaranteed 38 seats -- on top of the military allotment from group representatives and, possibly, from regional representatives -- the "TNI party" is a power to be reckoned with in the MPR session. It is clear that the military are very interested in who will lead Indonesia and what his/her agenda is for the next five years. The interest does not only concern TNI's political position in the future order of Indonesia, but is linked with concessions in the economic field. TNI will certainly not support a presidential candidate who wants to abolish the military's dual function.

Signals that TNI will not be neutral in the presidential election have been given by its Commander in chief Gen. Wiranto. He argued that if TNI representatives do not exercise their right in the election of the president and the vice-president, it would be contrary to the principle of democracy, because the military is also responsible for the future of this country (The Jakarta Post, June 15).

Considering that no political party will have an absolute majority of votes (half of the votes plus one) at the MPR, the process leading to the election of the president and the vice president is certain to be very dynamic. It will also be susceptible to unsuspected changes, such as maneuvers, bargaining, agreements and concessions (probably money politics too) by political parties at the MPR.

Observing the tendencies of the voting pattern in the 1999 general election, political forces in the coming presidential election will apparently be divided into two main groups: Megawati and Habibie. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Justice and Unity Party (PKP) will most likely champion Megawati.

In the other group, the Golkar Party will probably receive the support of the United Development Party (PPP), the Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Justice Party (PK) to fight for Habibie.

Although there is as yet no certainty about the number of seats each political party will obtain at the House of Representatives (DPR) and the MPR, no one party will gain the required minimum number of votes to dominate the MPR. A majority of 351 seats will be required -- assuming that the election of the president and the vice president will use the "one man one vote" system.

A coalition of PDI Perjuangan, PKB and PKP will, at the most, yield 200 to 210 seats at the DPR. If Golkar, PPP, PBB and PK join forces they will obtain between 190 and 200 seats.

With the polarization, the two camps are highly dependent on the support of the TNI, the regional and group representatives and the National Mandate Party (PAN). PAN has stated that it will not coalesce with either Golkar or the PDI Perjuangan camp. The question remains though whether PAN representatives will join in the election of the president and vice president. However, it is highly possible that PAN's votes -- amounting to approximately 40 -- will be divided between the two big groups.

Regional representatives (135 persons) may have chosen their colors, because their presence will be determined by each Regional House of Representatives in the province. PDI Perjuangan and PKB have the possibility of obtaining 60 to 70 additional seats from the regional representatives, while the Golkar group may get 30 to 40 seats.

TNI, with an allotment of 10 percent in each Regional House of Representatives, will probably obtain an additional 14 regional representatives (10 percent of 135). The group representatives (65 persons) decided by the General Elections Commission (KPU) may be fairly evenly split into the two groups.

According to this estimate, the PDI Perjuangan-PKB camp has the possibility to obtain the support of 310 to 320 votes at the MPR, while the Golkar-PPP camp could obtain 280 to 290 votes. If the latter group can convince PAN (though the possibility is small), the Habibie group will have approximately 330 votes. However, this total will not be sufficient to secure the presidency. Therefore, the two groups will fight for the "floating mass" of TNI representatives.

Military observer Salim Said is of the opinion that TNI will determine who will be the president and vice president (Kompas, June 18). Unlike the votes of political parties, there is little possibility that the votes of TNI representatives at the MPR will be divided, because they will submit to the command of TNI headquarters. With its capacity to make a neat package of the votes, TNI is in a position to determine who they want to champion. In this way, the military can have an optimum political bargaining position, and, if necessary, the vice presidency.

When they have to choose, TNI will certainly support the group with the biggest chance of winning and the one that will give a number of concessions to the military. TNI's support of one of the groups will certainly be decided at the last moment, when support for the presidential and vice presidential candidates becomes increasingly clear. By supporting the forces that win, TNI will avoid the risk of losing face as the instigators.

However, the dilemma of TNI at the DPR-MPR is precisely at this point. The military will face the risk that the party they support will fail in the next general election, even before five years of government.

Isn't politics identical with change? There are neither eternal friends nor foes. There is only interest. Maybe this time TNI will be safe to allow one of the groups to reign from 2000 to 2005. However, what will happen if five years later the TNI- supported party is defeated and is outside the government? Will TNI join the opposition camp? Or will it change partners and follow the party of the new ruler? If this was the case, would TNI be willing to be branded as opportunistic?

In the past, TNI had the experience of working hand in hand with Golkar, which by various means endeavored to maintain its power for three decades. But in the democracy era, where the ruling party may change from one general election to another, TNI must be more careful in channeling its support to one of the political forces.

The safest position for TNI is to distance itself from political matters. Even though currently TNI has been allotted seats at the DPR and MPR, the military can still maintain distance by not joining in the election of the president and vice president. If TNI continues to support one of the candidates and a certain party, it is only to be hoped that TNI will not help engineer the success of the party it supports to extend its power at the next general election.

The writer is chairman of the Karsa Utama Mandiri Foundation.