Military expected to retain support for Jiang

By Meidyatama Suryodiningrat

JAKARTA (JP): China's military, a strategic component in the country's political hierarchy, is expected to maintain its support for the leadership of Jiang Zemin and his fast-pace economic reform.

In the wake of Deng Xiaoping's demise, analysts told The Jakarta Post the key to the military backing for Jiang and his reformist policies stemmed from their own need to reap economic benefits from China's rapid development.

International affairs researcher Kusnanto Anggoro said an economically strong China would mean greater opportunities for military refurbishment.

While the Chinese leadership would remain collectively, Jiang would continue to have the final say on important decisions, he said.

Jiang, 70, is the most likely to maintain the rapidity of economic reforms that have been profitable for the military, Kusnanto said.

"Don't forget that Jiang is also a proponent of military hi- tech," said Kusnanto, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Kusnanto believed the only real challenge could come from the conservative Communist Party ideologs led by Premier Li Peng.

The military is unlikely to support Li given his desire to slacken the pace of reforms.

Li has advocated a slowing down of market reforms to allow a renewal of ideology that he believes will combat the erosion of communism brought on by liberal forces.

Noted international relations analyst J. Soedjati Djiwandono argued that the role of ideology had weakened in China to mere symbolic significance.

"Ideology is only important in its role as a legitimizer of the Communist Party's unchallenged hold on power," Soedjati said

Kusnanto underlined the military's role as king-maker, should a high-level power struggle eventuate.

The voice of the military in China's political elite was stronger now than in years past.

During the 14th Party Congress in October 1992, military personnel occupied 46 of the 189 seats -- almost a quarter -- in the ruling Communist Party's Central Committee.

Previously it held only 17 percent.

Those selected were from a younger generation, below 55-years- old, who seemed more professionally oriented rather than political.

They are also considered to be more "liberal" since one-third comes from the industrialized Shandong area.

This is a stark comparison to the old military guard of the Mao Zedong era, most of whom hailed from the agricultural Hunan area.

The military also appears to have profited directly from China's economic openness.

Kusnanto said up to half of the military expenditure was acquired from the private sector.

The military is heavily involved in private business schemes. These ventures have netted a windfall of some 30 billion yuan (US$3.6 billion).

Both Soedjati and Kusnanto both said the key to continued harmony in the coming year was how the civilian leadership would accommodate the military's sustained need for modernization of its forces and access to business ventures.

These conditions must persist for the military to continue development into the kind of power it aspires to in the next decade.

Juwono Sudarsono, Deputy Governor of Indonesia's National Resillience Institute, pointed out that as a major world power, China harbored ambitions for military predominance.

At the moment it did not have this supremacy and would avoid acute confrontations due to its need for continued economic development.

"I'm sure for the next 10-years they won't be involved in any extended physical confrontation ... maybe just small skirmishes," he said.

Juwono said economics would remain predominant, with military development taking a back seat to science and technology.

Bo Xilai, the mayor of Chinese city Dalian currently visiting Jakarta, claimed yesterday that the policies Deng had set would not be abandoned.

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