Mideast could decide U.S. presidential election

By Carol Giacomo

WASHINGTON (Reuters): The dramatically escalating Middle East crisis has put an intense spotlight on foreign policy and could affect the outcome of the U.S. presidential race which is in its crucial closing weeks, analysts said on Thursday.

Near-war between Israel and the Palestinians, coupled with an apparent terrorist attack on a U.S. naval destroyer, presented new challenges for President Bill Clinton's leadership skills, pushing oil prices to record highs and depressing stock markets.

Depending on how these factors play out, they could undermine a widespread feeling in the United States of peace and prosperity, and also raise questions about the efficacy of U.S. leadership. Such developments could hurt Vice President Al Gore, the Democratic presidential nominee, who is in a tight race with Republican nominee George W. Bush, the Texas governor.

The violent turn of events could have "potentially profound impact on the campaign because two of the factors that decide elections are either success, on the one hand, or failure, on the other hand, in foreign or military policy," said Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University.

This "is fraught with peril for the administration because it poses the potential for disastrous failure," he said.

Ironically, two areas in which U.S. policy is showing substantial success -- in Yugoslavia with the ouster from power of Slobodan Milosevic and in gradually improving relations with Stalinist North Korea -- are very unlikely to affect the presidential race, analysts said.

"Foreign policy issues usually don't play very strongly in a presidential campaign unless they have a strong impact on the U.S. economy or the lives of Americans in some other way, or if war is involved," said Mark Rozel, a politics professor at Catholic University.

"Right now both of those conditions clearly are being met," he said.

Many Americans are anxious about rising fuel prices and a stock market showing increasing tendencies of slower growth.

Crude oil prices spiked sharply to a 10-year peak above US$35 a barrel on Thursday when Israel, using helicopter gunships, attacked Palestinian targets in the West Bank after an angry mob killed at least two captive Israeli soldiers.

The suicide bombing of the USS Cole while the destroyer was refueling in Yemen -- killing at least six sailors and injuring 35 -- has touched numerous American families. It could revive wider fears among Americans about an inability to protect U.S. citizens and interests.

The latest wave of Mideast violence began two weeks ago after Israeli rightist leader Ariel Sharon's visit to the Temple Mount of al-Haram al-Sharif in Jerusalem, a place holy to Muslims and Jews.

Since then Gore and Bush have walked a careful line on the conflict, consistent with the long-time U.S. effort to play "honest broker" between Israel and the Palestinians.

After word of the Israeli soldiers' deaths, however, both candidates made statements pressing Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to assert leadership and quell the violence.

In no small measure, this reflects traditional bottom-line U.S. support for Israel and a desire to side with American Jews, a powerful voting block. Some American Jews are so outraged by the upsurge in fighting in the West Bank that they have called for an end to peace negotiations.

Both candidates said if the United States determines who bombed the U.S. destroyer, it must "hold the perpetrators accountable" (Gore) and "take appropriate action" (Bush).

For now, analysts said, Bush has little choice but to support the administration's position as it seeks to end the Mideast violence and figure out who bombed the navy vessel.

This year as in the past, political pundits have speculated about an "October surprise" that could erupt out of the blue and shake up a presidential campaign in its final days. The term originated two decades ago when then-President Richard Nixon bombed North Vietnam before the 1972 election in what was seen as a crass attempt to solidify his position with voters.

The current situation does not constitute an "October surprise" because it was not initiated by the United States but foisted upon it, said Richard Semiatin, an assistant professor of political science at American University.

But he believes Gore could benefit from the crisis if the administration determines with sufficient conviction who attacked the USS Cole and undertakes retaliatory military action.

"Then it would be a boost for Gore ... It would show Gore's experience in foreign policy and underscore his position as a member of the National Security Council," Semiatin said.

Americans tend to rally around their president in times of crisis. But this would depend on the decisiveness, type and success of any U.S. military action.

Gore was returning Thursday to Washington from campaigning to attend a White House meeting on the Middle East. Even if he were not running for president, he would be part of that process. But the Mideast violence will enhance that involvement -- for better or worse.