Middle East tension likely to persist

By Riza Sihbudi

JAKARTA (JP): There is a good chance that the current Palestinian-Israeli dispute will plunge the Middle East into further conflict.

The most recent tensions emerged with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan to build settlements in East Jerusalem's Har Homa or Jabal Abu Ghneim hill, located near the holy town of Al-Quds.

The Har Homa project has drawn strong opposition from several quarters. Notably the Moslem countries, but also the Palestine National Authority (PNA) led by Yasser Arafat, and even some countries in the West have expressed objections to the project.

There are two main factors underlying this opposition to the Har Homa project. Firstly, Al-Quds is widely envisaged as the future capital of an independent Palestine by the PNA and many Palestinians.

Secondly, in 1993 and 1995, tripartite agreements were signed between Palestine, Israel and the U.S. stating that the final status of Al-Quds would be discussed only in 1998. Palestinian negotiators argue that the Har Homa project transgresses these agreements.

Netanyahu seems vulnerable to pressure from extremist groups in Israel. Many of these hardliners have opposed the peace process from it's inception. Some pro-Arab analysts maintain that Netanyahu drew on the support of these hardliners in his recent victory over Shimon Peres. In turn, Netanyahu's reconciliatory approach towards the Arab nations led the nickname "Best Israeli for the Arabs" with some sections of the populace.

Netanyahu's government itself is a coalition of right wing extremists, who emphasize Israel's military security at the expense of the peace process. It would be political suicide for Netanyahu to ignore their influence.

Meanwhile, the Israeli political elite seems to understand that the stern warnings from abroad, mainly from the West represent more than mere "rhetoric to pacify the Arabs".

As is typical with the politics of the Middle East, the international community has frequently issued loud, but hollow condemnations. But the outside world lacks both the ability and the willpower to enforce peace and justice in the Middle East.

The U.S. Security Council veto of opposition to the Har Homa project reveals the hypocrisy of the West- both in its claims to be a champion of human rights and of democracy.

One popular,but unrealistic explanation is that growing international pressure will allow Netanyahu to persuade hardliners that the Har Homa project must be abandoned.

Perhaps this thesis could hold if Labor figures such as Shimon Peres or the late Yitzhak Rabin still governed Israel- men who were more serious about the peace process.

The attitude of the Arab countries is no less ironic. They have made no serious attempt to defend the Palestinians. The oil- rich Arab states, showing primary concern for their own wealth have been engaged primarily with empty rhetoric. This strengthens a perception of the death of Pan-Arabism.

There are two factors behind the ambiguous attitude of the Arab world. Firstly, the birth of an independent Palestine would be alarming for many Arab-states. These nations may perceive an intellectual rivalry with the Palestinian nation. To push for Palestinian independence would seem to be tantamount to creating a second Israel.

Secondly, regional groupings such as the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Conference Organization (OIC) or the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), are dominated by oil-rich states which are close allies - if not puppets - of the United States. It is unrealistic to think that they would take a stance that was contrary to U.S. interests.

In this situation, only a miracle can save the peace process. It is no wonder that in the past few weeks there has been a resurgence of the Intifada resistance. For these young Palestinians, the Intifada is the only means to oppose an Israel backed by the West. Perhaps they believe that God only helps those who help themselves.

If the above analysis is accurate, protracted conflict is the most likely scenario in the Middle East. Is this what the U.S. and other arms manufacturers want ? God only knows.

The writer is a researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) and the Indonesian Society for Middle East Studies (ISMES) in Jakarta.