Middle East leaders face tough decision

By Julian Borger

WASHINGTON: From the moment the first airliner hit the World Trade Center last Tuesday morning both sides in the Middle East conflict viewed the event through the prism of their own tactical advantage. From that point of view, the week began badly for Yasser Arafat, but it was ultimately Ariel Sharon who overplayed his hand and was forced to make the greater concessions, clearing the way for Tuesday's ceasefire and an imminent return to negotiations.

The terrorist attack confronted Arafat with a crucial decision. When the Gulf war broke out, the Palestinian leader had thrown his lot in with Saddam Hussein. It made him popular in the street, but he has been paying the price diplomatically ever since.

This time, by all accounts, he did not hesitate. He sent a message to Washington almost immediately condemning the hijackers and expressing his condolences. His efforts were, however, rapidly undermined by television images from the West Bank showing a small crowd of Palestinians celebrating America's humiliation.

Embarrassed, the Palestinian leadership quickly sent a second message, emphasizing that the celebrants were a tiny minority of "ignorant" locals who did not represent their people. Arafat was filmed (symbolically though redundantly) giving blood for the people of New York, but the damage had been done.

Meanwhile, Sharon seized the attack as an opportunity. In his messages to the White House, he emphasized the parallels between the terrorists who had attacked New York and Washington and the Palestinian Authority. Casting its actions as part of an international crusade, he sent tanks in to Jenin and Jericho to quell unrest.

The Israeli military moves coincided with exploratory calls made by the secretary of state, Colin Powell, last Wednesday and Thursday. One Arab state after another expressed its condolences and a commitment to help, but each made the point that a comprehensive battle against extremists was impossible while battles between Israeli troops and Palestinians could be seen daily on Arab televisions.

Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the three key Arab allies, agreed that the Bush administration's initial hands-off approach to the conflict had allowed it to escalate. They pointed out that 20 Palestinians had been killed in armored Israeli raids on Ramallah, Jenin and Jericho, and in a missile attack on Gaza.

By the end of the week, it was clear that it would be near impossible to build a coalition of the breadth of the one the president's father had rallied against Iraq in 1990, unless there was tangible progress in stopping the fighting in the occupied territories. President Bush called Sharon, asking him to accept a meeting with Arafat, in the long term interests of the war against terrorism. According to a U.S. source, the conversation was inconclusive. Sharon resented Israel's enforced passivity in the 1991 Gulf war, absorbing Scud attacks without response in the interests of the coalition's cohesion. It left Israel looking timid, he complained. He could not make the same mistake.

Over the course of the week, Powell made four phone calls to Arafat. According to the Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat, the secretary of the state pleaded with Arafat, saying "out of our misery we call upon you to get the peace process moving". Arafat insisted, however, on a cessation of Israeli military actions in Palestinian controlled areas. Powell went back to the Israelis for a response.

The Israeli prime minister gave his answer on Saturday. He called off a meeting arranged for Sunday between Arafat and his doveish foreign minister, Shimon Peres, and tried to press the advantage handed to him on the first day by the damaging pictures of celebrating Palestinians.

"It is inconceivable to grant (Yasser Arafat) legitimacy because someone thinks that might facilitate the inclusion of Arab countries in this coalition," Sharon told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Aharonoth. "We will not pay the price for the establishment of this coalition."

He ordered the creation of a buffer zone on Palestinian land in the West Bank, closed to all Palestinians except local farmers, justifying the move as part of Israel's own struggle against terrorism and Arafat -- the "Bin Laden of the Middle East".

The Israeli rebuff caused outrage in the White House, cooling -- perhaps permanently -- the administration's hitherto admiring view of Sharon. The United States had after all lost more people in a single day than Israel had in decades of terrorism.

The weekend was a turning point, at which Jordan's King Abdullah and Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak, played a critical role. No doubt aware of the implications of Sharon's error of judgment, they took a hard line.

Mubarak went on CNN at prime time on Monday to say that President Bush had personally promised him that he would be "very active" in trying to arrange a ceasefire between the two sides

"But what I'm seeing now is the Israeli government is seizing the opportunity and launching attacks now and then," the Egyptian leader said "This will have terrible repercussions after that."

King Abdullah went on record as saying that the attacks on the United States would not have happened if Washington had resolved the problems in the Middle East, especially the Palestinian- Israeli conflict.

The Jordanians and Egyptians agreed to meet in the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Tuesday to cement their common stand, and the Syrian leader, Bashar Assad, representing another pivotal member of the Gulf coalition, is expected there today.

The leader of the United Arab Emirates, Sheik Zaid bin Sultan al- Nahayan, said the coalition could only work if the United States avoided "double standards". The United States should stop the "terrorist Israeli actions in the occupied Palestinian territories." His words carried clout, as the UAE hosts one of the few Taliban diplomatic offices in the world.

The threat that coalition-building would stall in the Middle East produced another, sterner call to Sharon on Monday. It is not known whether Bush reminded the Israeli leader of the US$3 billion subsidy the U.S. pays to Israel annually. Israelis keenly remember the withdrawal of U.S. loan guarantees by Bush's father. It helped to push a reluctant Israeli government to the negotiating table in Madrid.

Meanwhile on Monday, the European envoy to the Middle East, Miguel Moratinos, was huddled in Gaza with Arafat and helped to coax from him the fullest Palestinian pledge of support to date.

The Palestinian leader on Tuesday sent the White House a declaration he was ready to join the anti-terrorist coalition, implying he would hand over intelligence on Bin Laden's affiliates in the Palestinian territories. "Our objective is securing a world where security, peace and justice prevail. I will do ... whatever is necessary to achieve that goal," he said.

It was a declaration with the potential to make the Palestinians as useful to Washington in its anti-terrorist campaign as the Israelis, and it made it all but impossible for Sharon to prevent a return to negotiations.

-- Guardian News Service