Middle class missing in the news

By David Harries

JAKARTA (JP): Where has the middle class gone? Until July this year it was unusual if an article on Asian politics, economic or social conditions did not refer to something "middle class". But, since the implosion of the Thai bath opened the race in the fall from grace of the Asian economic miracle, "middle class" has been unheard and unheralded.

How could an element of society which, since well before the end of the Cold War, was almost universally touted as the foundation of a bright and fair future, suddenly become a non- issue?

How could the engine of economic growth, the flag bearer for democratization, the bridge between rich and poor, and the savior of the common man in the battles between politics and commerce become a has-been?

How could the "middle class" disappear just when the economic and political crises in the region forced societies to cry out for the very characteristic attributed to it?

Current history books such as the Far Eastern Economic Review compete with daily situation reports in publications such as the Asian Wall Street Journal and this newspaper to present the best stories on the extremes of the human spectrum.

We are told that the rich and powerful institutions and individuals are arguing among themselves over the ruins of houses of cards they had built, or begun to build, on mountains of dry sand.

There is much on looking for ways to escape as much blame and loss as possible from the other end of the line. We hear that those living in poverty are the most likely to benefit least from the region's collective economic meltdown and the spreading fallout.

Indeed, we are told that, "failing some miracle" their numbers are expected to grow and the time their aspirations are blocked is extended.

Perhaps the reason we now hear so little from and about the "middle class" is that, in Asia, it was not what it was cracked up to be. In much the same way the "economic miracle" was called to account, the same realities have exposed the "middle class" as far less a significant actor and influence on the region's evolution than was hoped and broadcast.

What seems to be the case in Asia is that "middle class" is far less "middle" than "just over" the poverty line.

In developed nations, the middle class unevenly spans the whole space between those having nothing and those having everything.

The very poor face few insurmountable obstacles to exploiting an opportunity to become very rich. However, in developing countries, the middle class is still less "thing" than activity, it is a struggle to avoid sliding back into poverty.

This is especially so in Asia where the pace of economic change has far outstripped that of politics, convention and culture, producing a gap between rich and poor which continues to get both wider and deeper.

The economic strugglers, and stragglers, are far from the corridors of power and not always a priority in the minds of the individuals who walk them. People outside this region make more of the status and powers of the "Asian middle class" than do its members, yet another case of distant academics over-emphasizing theory and illusion.

In each Asian country, the "middle class" and its conditions are unique. There is very little common ground, or understanding or knowledge, between, say, those in Brunei and Laos.

But all demonstrate one governing characteristic, a set of concerns that is visceral. These include finding and keeping a satisfying job compatible with ones' training and education, having enough money for the family to enjoy a dignified level of food, shelter, school, mobility and togetherness, and knowing that the bank with ones meager savings will be open next week.

Although Asian "middle" classes are only slowly coming to realize it, globalized competition increases their challenge to transform their circumstance from one of struggling to avoid poverty to striving for a better life.

And in many countries, until or unless the more advanced levels of education are significantly improved, crucial elements of an ability to escape the pull of poverty will be weak and uncertain. Meanwhile, the rich go abroad to good universities and return to widen the prosperity gap.

The struggle to escape a return to poverty leaves "middle" classes in Asia with little time and less energy for engaging in esoteric issues like democratization and international financial reform.

As long as they are not prevented from struggling, the struggle is more than enough to occupy them, and honorable enough to satisfy them. Revolt and rebellion is far more likely to come at the hands of those occupying the extreme ends of the spectrum, from those who know they have nothing to lose if they do revolt, or from those who think they will lose much of what they have if they do not.

For certain, a "middle class" should be put back on the agenda in Asia. Not a single country of the region, or probably anywhere, can today afford to have more of their citizens living in poverty, wherever whoever draws the line.

Second, peace and stability depend on some form of tolerant relationship between the rich and the poor and between market and political systems.

Third, if there is to be enough money to pay for the peace to contain enough of the differences, disputes and misunderstandings in the world, economic growth must continue. More and more people must therefore be gainfully employed consumers.

The poverty-stricken certainly cannot take that role, and the rich and powerful will never be numerous enough to carry the whole load, however hard some try.

Fourth, history has shown that when a significant element of society with the knowledge, skill and willingness to work felt it was doomed to being "never-will-haves", their desperation and outrage can wreak havoc on the neighborhood, and all lose.

Now that knowledge is the ultimate, useful power and is unconstrained by national boundaries and physical barriers, skills are global goods and willingness an individual choice. In these circumstances, the "middle class" could perceive itself as a "never-will-have" group, and represent a particularly threatening modern phenomenon.

Asia needs real "middle" classes so the poverty-stricken can realistically aspire to something for their children, and which business and political elites will accept and encourage. It is time to get the "middle class" back into the history books and situation reports.

The writer is an observer of ASEAN affairs.