Message from the Editor

Message from the Editor

As has been the tradition for quite some time, The Jakarta
Post is dedicating special sections of our newspaper in the last
two days of 2003, to an outlook for the coming year.

There are several ways of foreseeing the future without
falling into the trap of mere prediction. One of them is to
review and analyze the past, looking for overriding patterns that
could help people to figure out what will happen next. We have
been doing just that for the last few days; looking into past
performances in different aspects of Indonesia, be it in national
politics, economy, social environment, or other matters. We have
also included aspects of the regional and international
environment that have contributed to what Indonesia is today.

Another tool is the national agenda, that is, what the nation
has agreed upon to do next year. Our country has decided on
several agendas for 2004 -- in politics, the economy, social
development and others -- to move the country forward. Using past
performances as a guide, one could scrutinize this agenda -- this
list of "wishes" -- and figure out different probable outcomes.

This time around, to foresee the year 2004, the Post finds it
very hard to use past performances as a guide. The year 2004 will
be a unique, unprecedented and highly politicized year for
Indonesia.

In April 2004, a new electoral system will determine the
distribution of seats for members of the legislature at three
different levels throughout Indonesia. At the same time,
Indonesians will cast their votes to elect members of the newly
created second chamber of parliament, the Dewan Perwakilan
Daerah. The system, rules and regulations of the general election
will not be similar to previous ones, and will be much more
complicated.

Next will come the two-stage presidential election that for
the first time in the history of the Republic will be direct. The
first stage is scheduled to take place in July 2004. If no
candidate gains a simple majority of the total of votes -- which
is highly improbable -- a second stage will be held in September
2004.

In short, the national agenda will be dominated by a seven-
month-long highly politicized period, starting from the pre-
election campaigns in March through until the second presidential
election in September. This will be a totally new political
experience for Indonesia, and a very exhausting one as well.

Nobody can foresee whether the final results will move
Indonesia forward in its intended process of democratization, in
its fumbling efforts for political reform, in its path toward an
orderly economic environment, or in the many other aspects of
becoming a new Indonesia.

Instead, the Post has invited a group of analysts and
columnists to enlighten our readers on the daunting task of
organizing and implementing the elections; while maintaining the
integrity of the whole process, as well as the country's
stability and sound economic conditions. Today's edition will
look into the agenda and ramifications of the national elections,
while tomorrow's edition will focus on the country's economic
outlook.

This is not an attempt to predict the future. Rather, it is an
endeavor to help readers to look into the relevant issues and
figure out the overriding patterns.