Megawati's ouster too risky to pursue, analysts warn

Berni K. Moestafa, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Indonesia cannot afford to unseat President Megawati Soekarnoputri at this point, even as pressure mounts, analysts said, adding that the risk of creating instability by toppling her was too great with the general election just a year away.

Political analyst J. Kristiadi said that President Megawati's unpopular decisions and the general sense of frustration over her government in dealing with issues, such as corruption and the economy, could not justify moves to replace her at this time.

"These moves would just destroy the foundation of efforts to institutionalize the peaceful political change of power," the Centre for Strategic for International Studies (CSIS) analyst said on Monday.

Several politicians have openly called for Megawati's ouster in the wake of nationwide protests against her decision to raise utility prices.

The move has spurred almost daily street protests led by students, workers of both private and state companies and non- governmental organizations (NGOs) since last week. Businesspeople have also joined in the protests.

Increases in fuel, electricity and telephone rates, however, would have likely drawn only limited protests were it not for a string of recent unpopular decisions preceding them.

These include the scandal-ridden sale of state-owned telecommunications PT Indosat and plans to drop possible criminal charges against business tycoons who owe the state billions of U.S. dollars.

Last week several members of political parties, student organizations and activists met to discuss ways of replacing Megawati and Vice President Hamzah Haz.

The meeting, hosted by Bung Karno Nationalist Party (PNBK) chairman Eros Djarot, agreed that the present administration should be replaced and suggested the establishment of a national presidium.

"But who will guarantee that the new government will not fare worse than its predecessor?" asked Kristiadi.

Since the fall of Soeharto, who ruled the country for 32 years until May 1998, Indonesia has seen three different presidents.

The nation is just a year away from its first ever direct presidential election in 2004. Political analysts have said the present political elite were unlikely to risk ousting Megawati now.

"There is a risk that the country could descend into chaos if that happens," said political analyst Fachry Ali.

He said the threat of chaos in the absence of a government could draw the only functioning organization in the country to come to the forefront, which was the military.

The public would likely invite the military to take over, he said. "I believe the public would rather choose the authoritarian rule of the military over complete chaos."

This scenario may also help explain why the country's political elite have refrained from lashing out too hard against Megawati.

The chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN) and speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly, Amien Rais, has been a persistent critic of the government's policies.

A likely presidential candidate next year, Amien, however, did not call for Megawati's removal.

"For those already in the system it is more beneficial to maintain the current government," explained Fachry.

The threat against Megawati, therefore, came more from those outside the "system", especially if public sentiment against the government was at a low point, he said.

"The idea of a presidium is nothing more than having it as an entry point into the system," he said.