Megawati's ouster too risky to pursue, analysts warn

Megawati's ouster too risky to pursue, analysts warn

Berni K. Moestafa, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Indonesia cannot afford to unseat President Megawati
Soekarnoputri at this point, even as pressure mounts, analysts
said, adding that the risk of creating instability by toppling
her was too great with the general election just a year away.

Political analyst J. Kristiadi said that President Megawati's
unpopular decisions and the general sense of frustration over her
government in dealing with issues, such as corruption and the
economy, could not justify moves to replace her at this time.

"These moves would just destroy the foundation of efforts to
institutionalize the peaceful political change of power," the
Centre for Strategic for International Studies (CSIS) analyst
said on Monday.

Several politicians have openly called for Megawati's ouster
in the wake of nationwide protests against her decision to raise
utility prices.

The move has spurred almost daily street protests led by
students, workers of both private and state companies and non-
governmental organizations (NGOs) since last week. Businesspeople
have also joined in the protests.

Increases in fuel, electricity and telephone rates, however,
would have likely drawn only limited protests were it not for a
string of recent unpopular decisions preceding them.

These include the scandal-ridden sale of state-owned
telecommunications PT Indosat and plans to drop possible criminal
charges against business tycoons who owe the state billions of
U.S. dollars.

Last week several members of political parties, student
organizations and activists met to discuss ways of replacing
Megawati and Vice President Hamzah Haz.

The meeting, hosted by Bung Karno Nationalist Party (PNBK)
chairman Eros Djarot, agreed that the present administration
should be replaced and suggested the establishment of a national
presidium.

"But who will guarantee that the new government will not fare
worse than its predecessor?" asked Kristiadi.

Since the fall of Soeharto, who ruled the country for 32 years
until May 1998, Indonesia has seen three different presidents.

The nation is just a year away from its first ever direct
presidential election in 2004. Political analysts have said the
present political elite were unlikely to risk ousting Megawati
now.

"There is a risk that the country could descend into chaos if
that happens," said political analyst Fachry Ali.

He said the threat of chaos in the absence of a government
could draw the only functioning organization in the country to
come to the forefront, which was the military.

The public would likely invite the military to take over, he
said. "I believe the public would rather choose the authoritarian
rule of the military over complete chaos."

This scenario may also help explain why the country's
political elite have refrained from lashing out too hard against
Megawati.

The chairman of the National Mandate Party (PAN) and speaker
of the People's Consultative Assembly, Amien Rais, has been a
persistent critic of the government's policies.

A likely presidential candidate next year, Amien, however, did
not call for Megawati's removal.

"For those already in the system it is more beneficial to
maintain the current government," explained Fachry.

The threat against Megawati, therefore, came more from those
outside the "system", especially if public sentiment against the
government was at a low point, he said.

"The idea of a presidium is nothing more than having it as an
entry point into the system," he said.