Megawati to get to the heart of 'axis of evil'

Bantarto Bandoro, Editor, 'The Indonesian Quarterly' Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta

Many Korea-watchers still remember the Perry Process, which in May 1999 sought to improve relations between North Korea and the United States. The Perry Process, named after the then U.S. Secretary of Defense, William Perry, was meant also to accelerate peace efforts on the Korean Peninsula.

The main policy objective was to bring North Korea into the international community, and therefore to improve peace and stability in the region. But no significant changes have emerged since 1999.

Now the world will see a new attempted peace process as President Megawati Soekarnoputri begins her three-day visit to North Korea on March 28.

Although the U.S. alleges North Korea is part of an "axis of evil", Megawati is quite willing to get into the heart of the problem. She wants to explore the possibility that there might be some friendliness behind the "evil".

A few days before the President embarked on her East Asian tour, Indonesia's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hassan Wirayuda, hinted that Megawati had agreed to Seoul's request for her to get involved.

South Korean President Kim Dae-jung wanted Megawati to encourage North Korean leader Kim Jong-il to return to the peace talks process with South Korea and the U.S.

Indonesia seems to take an interest in having peace established on the Korean Peninsula.

The prospect of significant and serious talks on the establishment of permanent peace and therefore reunification on the Peninsula first emerged in June 2000, when the South Korean president made an historic visit to Pyongyang in June 2000.

The international community praised the summit highly - if only because it showed the two leaders might be willing to abandon their past rancor.

But the summit was not followed by any significant progress. The Sept. 11 tragedy that led the U.S. to brand North Korea as part of the "axis of evil" has made it even more difficult for peace talks to flourish.

Megawati's mediation plan to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula has already been widely reported. As she starts her Asian tour, the media and her foreign policy advisers have expressed hopes that Megawati will be able to achieve a major breakthrough in the peace dialog between the two countries.

Of course there is nothing wrong with such high expectations. But mediating such a high-profile conflict, if that is truly Indonesia's aim, may prove a very difficult business indeed.

Past experiences have shown that even major powers such as the U.S. and Russia, who have greater political and diplomatic leverage than Indonesia, proved unable to drag the two Koreas to the negotiating table and persuade them to keep talking.

An in-depth understanding of the Korean conflict is necessary if one really wishes to be part of the mediation process. Many Indonesians doubt that Megawati has a full understanding of the essence of the Korean conflict. Her international diplomatic skills have not been proved. Many are skeptical that Megawati will make any significant breakthrough, given her progress on previous foreign trips.

As a mediator, she is probably best viewed only as one element in the communication arrangements between North and South Korea. Her meeting with the introverted North Korean leader, Kim Jong- il, will be significant not because it might result in a fundamental shift in the North Korean position, which is very unlikely, but only because the two leaders have an existing relationship.

The young Megawati and the young Kim met during their childhoods, when their respective fathers were friends.

This nostalgic nuance will be the predominant factor in their meeting, making Megawati's peace initiatives a second priority. What Megawati will achieve at best is perhaps a recognition by the two Koreas of the importance of their interests.

After all, what Megawati does, can do or is permitted to do in her efforts to ease tensions may depend on her resources and competence.

Ultimately her efforts depend on her understanding of the context of the Korean conflict, what is at stake and the nature of the interaction between North and South.

The "Megawati Process" will certainly touch the North-South dialog, but whether it will be a positive or significant force remains a big question.