Megawati to face bumpy race in Bali

I Wayan Juniartha, Denpasar, Bali

The incumbent Megawati Soekarnoputri may have a bumpy road ahead of her to win the hearts of the Balinese in the upcoming election.

Once known as loyal -- some might say fanatical -- supporters of Megawati, the Balinese made it clear in April's legislative election that times had changed.

In April Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) only garnered 999,889 votes. It was a humiliating 33 percent decrease compared to the almost 1.5 million votes for the party in the 1999 general election.

To add insult to injury, its strongest rival, the Golkar Party, garnered 320,710 votes, a 60 percent increase from 198,713 votes for the party in 1999.

Meanwhile, a relatively new figure to politics, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is gaining increasing popularity among the Balinese, particularly those in urban areas. His Democratic Party received 121,665 votes, soaring from obscurity to become the third strongest political power on the island.

Moreover, Megawati's rally on June 11 in Tabanan regency was attended by less than half of the expected crowd of 50,000, clear evidence that the island's adoration of her has dwindled.

Back in 1998, the island's capital, Denpasar, was virtually paralyzed when over 500,000 people gathered -- just for a glimpse of her -- and to listen to her moving speech.

The decrease has alarmed the PDI-P's top brass and the island's intellectuals, who predicted it, but are apparently not ready to view it in the context of Mega's reelection chances.

"The effect (of the decrease) on Megawati's chances of reelection will be fairly insignificant. The decrease was the result of our constituents' disappointment toward the poor performance of our legislators, not toward Megawati," a top PDI-P official said.

Political analyst Chusmeru added that the emotional affinity between the Balinese and Megawati was still a key factor in the upcoming election. "They (sentimental voters) still see her, not only as a political figure, but also as the only national leader with close historical, cultural and emotional ties to Bali, and its people," he said.

"Megawati will win in Bali. However, she will not win it by a huge majority. The best she will get is 60 percent of the votes," he added.

The emotional affinity between Megawati and the Balinese can be traced back to her father, the first president Sukarno. A magnificent orator and art-lover, he was born of a Balinese woman from Buleleng regency.

This affinity was significantly strengthened on the eve of the 1999 general election, when a rival politician AM Saeffuddin claimed that Megawati was not a suitable presidential candidate because she is a Hindu, the predominant religion in Bali. The claim triggered the biggest street rallies in the island's history, and the Balinese began to identify with Megawati. Needless to say, the PDI-P won the 1999 election.

Megawati, obviously aware of the power of emotion, recently told a gathering in Bali that Bali was her home. She said she had Balinese blood and her grandmother was from Buleleng.

"Yet, the PDI-P must pay special attention to 'rational voters', who, I believe, will vote for Susilo, whom they see as a cool, smart, humble and -- above all -- honest candidate," Chusmeru said.

"Many people, who voted for the PDI-P in the legislative election, have said that they will vote for Susilo in the presidential election," he added.

Those Balinese disappointed with the PDI-P say its legislators failed to protect the interests of the poor, such as in Pecatu and Sawangan areas, from the onslaught of major investors. They also failed to prove that the last governors' election was free from vote-buying, with PDI-P legislators accused of receiving money in return for support. Also, legislators had demanded severance pay of up to Rp 100 million each, which sickened many Balinese people, earlier reports said.

Similar feelings in support of Susilo have been expressed by others. "If SBY (Susilo) manages to present himself as someone who cares and has a deep understanding of the island's needs, then there will be a tight race between Megawati and SBY," Chusmeru said.

Ketut Wirya, a native of Negara -- a city some 70 kilometers west of Denpasar -- said that although in the general election his fellow villagers had mainly voted for the PDI-P, they would vote for Susilo in the presidential election.

"One of our neighbors was a PDI-P candidate in the legislative election, so we had no choice but to fight for him. The presidential election is a different story," he said.

However in Tulikup, a village some 30 kilometers east of Denpasar, many locals expressed support for Megawati although the Golkar Party won the largest number of votes in that village in the legislative election. "There is no specific reason. We just love Ibu (Megawati), compared to the other candidates," villager Made Arta said.

In Singaraja, some 80 kilometers north of Denpasar, a resident, Made Nyana, noted that Susilo's popularity was limited to cities, while in rural areas, Megawati was still the commanding figure.

The upcoming election will show whether blood is really thicker than water in the island's political power game.