Megawati to face bumpy race in Bali

Megawati to face bumpy race in Bali

I Wayan Juniartha, Denpasar, Bali

The incumbent Megawati Soekarnoputri may have a bumpy road ahead
of her to win the hearts of the Balinese in the upcoming
election.

Once known as loyal -- some might say fanatical -- supporters
of Megawati, the Balinese made it clear in April's legislative
election that times had changed.

In April Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
(PDI-P) only garnered 999,889 votes. It was a humiliating 33
percent decrease compared to the almost 1.5 million votes for the
party in the 1999 general election.

To add insult to injury, its strongest rival, the Golkar
Party, garnered 320,710 votes, a 60 percent increase from 198,713
votes for the party in 1999.

Meanwhile, a relatively new figure to politics, Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono, is gaining increasing popularity among the Balinese,
particularly those in urban areas. His Democratic Party received
121,665 votes, soaring from obscurity to become the third
strongest political power on the island.

Moreover, Megawati's rally on June 11 in Tabanan regency was
attended by less than half of the expected crowd of 50,000, clear
evidence that the island's adoration of her has dwindled.

Back in 1998, the island's capital, Denpasar, was virtually
paralyzed when over 500,000 people gathered -- just for a glimpse
of her -- and to listen to her moving speech.

The decrease has alarmed the PDI-P's top brass and the
island's intellectuals, who predicted it, but are apparently not
ready to view it in the context of Mega's reelection chances.

"The effect (of the decrease) on Megawati's chances of
reelection will be fairly insignificant. The decrease was the
result of our constituents' disappointment toward the poor
performance of our legislators, not toward Megawati," a top PDI-P
official said.

Political analyst Chusmeru added that the emotional affinity
between the Balinese and Megawati was still a key factor in the
upcoming election. "They (sentimental voters) still see her, not
only as a political figure, but also as the only national leader
with close historical, cultural and emotional ties to Bali, and
its people," he said.

"Megawati will win in Bali. However, she will not win it by a
huge majority. The best she will get is 60 percent of the votes,"
he added.

The emotional affinity between Megawati and the Balinese can
be traced back to her father, the first president Sukarno. A
magnificent orator and art-lover, he was born of a Balinese woman
from Buleleng regency.

This affinity was significantly strengthened on the eve
of the 1999 general election, when a rival politician AM
Saeffuddin claimed that Megawati was not a suitable presidential
candidate because she is a Hindu, the predominant religion in
Bali. The claim triggered the biggest street rallies in the
island's history, and the Balinese began to identify
with Megawati. Needless to say, the PDI-P won the 1999 election.

Megawati, obviously aware of the power of emotion, recently
told a gathering in Bali that Bali was her home. She said she had
Balinese blood and her grandmother was from Buleleng.

"Yet, the PDI-P must pay special attention to 'rational
voters', who, I believe, will vote for Susilo, whom they see as a
cool, smart, humble and -- above all -- honest candidate,"
Chusmeru said.

"Many people, who voted for the PDI-P in the legislative
election, have said that they will vote for Susilo in the
presidential election," he added.

Those Balinese disappointed with the PDI-P say its legislators
failed to protect the interests of the poor, such as in Pecatu
and Sawangan areas, from the onslaught of major investors. They
also failed to prove that the last governors' election was free
from vote-buying, with PDI-P legislators accused of receiving
money in return for support. Also, legislators had demanded
severance pay of up to Rp 100 million each, which sickened many
Balinese people, earlier reports said.

Similar feelings in support of Susilo have been expressed by
others. "If SBY (Susilo) manages to present himself as someone
who cares and has a deep understanding of the island's needs,
then there will be a tight race between Megawati and SBY,"
Chusmeru said.

Ketut Wirya, a native of Negara -- a city some 70 kilometers
west of Denpasar -- said that although in the general election
his fellow villagers had mainly voted for the PDI-P, they would
vote for Susilo in the presidential election.

"One of our neighbors was a PDI-P candidate in the legislative
election, so we had no choice but to fight for him. The
presidential election is a different story," he said.

However in Tulikup, a village some 30 kilometers east of
Denpasar, many locals expressed support for Megawati although the
Golkar Party won the largest number of votes in that village in
the legislative election. "There is no specific reason. We just
love Ibu (Megawati), compared to the other candidates," villager
Made Arta said.

In Singaraja, some 80 kilometers north of Denpasar, a
resident, Made Nyana, noted that Susilo's popularity was limited
to cities, while in rural areas, Megawati was still the
commanding figure.

The upcoming election will show whether blood is really
thicker than water in the island's political power game.