Megawati, Susilo each have their own problems

Megawati, Susilo each have their own problems

Jusuf Wanandi, Jakarta

The first direct presidential election on July 5 was as
peaceful and democratic as the April 5 legislative election. It
shows the growing political maturity of the Indonesian people.
Indonesians should be proud of this. Indonesia's budding
democracy has moved up a notch in its consolidation toward a
mature democracy.

Two presidential candidates from among the five are almost
certain to move into the second and final round of the elections
to be held on Sept. 20. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Megawati
Soekarnoputri, gained around 33 percent and 26 percent of the
vote respectively.

Susilo and Jusuf Kalla are supposedly the more popular team
and in polls conducted before the elections they even gained 49
percent of popular support, which declined in the last two weeks
before the elections. By contrast, Megawati, whose party, the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) took a beating in
the legislative elections, sliding from 34 percent in 1999 to 19
percent in 2004, and scored only about 12 percent in the opinion
polls, made a turn around and instead got 26 percent of the vote
in the first round.

Megawati has not been a hands-on leader during her three-year
term, and some real problems were not tackled seriously, such as
unemployment and corruption. But she has been able to lay down
some of the fundamentals for future development. She has
stabilized the macro-economic fundamentals of the economy
(inflation, foreign exchange, fiscal deficit, current account)
which is a prerequisite for economic stability and to enable the
private sector, the market as well as the autonomous regions to
promote economic activities in the micro-sectors.

Economic growth has stabilized at around 4 percent. This is
not adequate, but sufficient to lay down a healthy basis for
future development. She also has overcome many conflicts in
society and the regions. The fervor for "revolution" has calmed
down and the threats of global terrorism have been dealt with
quietly, consistently and persistently with the assistance of the
international community. Religious extremism, which became
widespread after the demise of Soeharto, has been restrained.
Except for the Aceh conflict, and the dissatisfaction in West
Papua, the conflicts in Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Maluku and
anarchy in the streets of Java, have been mostly overcome.

Although she is not known to be a strong reformist, Megawati
is able to nudge and move democracy, by refraining from imposing
and regulating or engineering political developments in society.
Instead, she has allowed a "thousand flowers to bloom". But, of
course, these achievements, while substantial are also far from
adequate. Corruption is rampant, even among her closest
assistants. Labor relations have deteriorated due to the policies
of the incompetent minister from her party. The consistency in
the implementation of the rule of law has been questioned and the
judicial system is mired in corruption. Foreign investment is not
coming because of the uncertainties in the above areas.
Furthermore, she has not been willing to lead openly and
directly, and bring the issues to the people to solicit their
support in tackling them.

With only 26 percent support, in order to win in the second
round, she has to change her leadership and her team. It will not
be adequate to simply make deals with other parties, such as
Golkar, United Development Party (PPP), National Awakening Party
(PKB), and others to form a coalition. First, these parties are
fractured, as shown in the first round of the election. Even if
some succeed in consolidating, the leadership of these parties no
longer have the necessary power and influence to mobilize the
masses.

Megawati has to come out and become decisive. For that, she
has to reach out to the Indonesian people herself, as she had
done when she faced Soeharto and Habibie in 1998 and 1999. She
has to show empathy for the people's sufferings again and be
humble enough to recognize her earlier shortcomings.

In addition, she has to demonstrate leadership by removing
some of her corrupt assistants. She must bring in a new team that
is clean, compact, capable and trusted by the people and should
announce this before the second round starts.

It should be noted that very important reformist groups and
minorities are gravitating back to Megawati's leadership. Civil
society also looks to her because she is the only civilian leader
who is a democrat. They have great difficulty accepting and
trusting a (former) general who has been groomed for 30 years by
Soeharto and his regime, surrounding himself with mostly military
people who only have one term of reference in their life, namely
solving political problems by force, especially military force.
It has to be recognized that Susilo is not an ex-general that was
shaped under civilian supremacy over the military like Eisenhower
or even De Gaulle.

Chinese-Indonesians are also not in favor of the military that
they see as having abused them. They are also concerned with the
perceived anti-foreigner, including Chinese-Indonesians,
sentiments of Jusuf Kalla, Susilo's running mate. He is seen as a
proponent of a bumiputra policy as practiced in Malaysia.
Chinese-Indonesians will no longer accept overt and covert
economic discrimination.

In fact, if Indonesia is ever to regain its economic dynamism,
it should accept the role and participation of the Chinese-
Indonesians as being in the mainstream and not at the periphery
of development. Their dynamism, expertise and networking in East
Asia could be a constructive contribution to the nation's
economic development. This has also happened in the political
life of Indonesian society that has brought the Muslims to the
fore in promoting a democratic Indonesia. The last two elections
(1999 and 2004) have shown this to be the case, and Indonesia can
be proud of this.

The Christians feel rather uncomfortable with Susilo and Kalla
because of their relations and activities with Muslims on the
right side of the political spectrum such as Yusril Ihza
Mahendra's Crescent Star Party (PBB), which is a proponent of the
implementation of sharia by the state.

These groups do not represent a large portion of the vote, but
they have some influence in public opinion. They have always been
harbingers of change in society.

The big question then is whether Megawati is willing to change
her leadership, her policies and her team. We will have to wait
and see what will happen in the next few weeks. She should
recognize that she cannot simply rely on her "beliefs". She is
facing a serious survival problem. But she has a chance, because
for the average Indonesian the choice is between somebody you
know, despite all the limitations, and someone you don't know
with the risk of an uncertain future direction for the country.
The alternative, Susilo is also not a strong leader and is known
to be encircled by a group of military leaders. Democracy is thus
at stake. In addition, Susilo's vice presidential candidate has
been tainted by anti-foreigner and anti-Chinese sentiments.

The writer is cofounder and member of the board of trustees of
the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).