Megawati, Susilo each have their own problems

Jusuf Wanandi, Jakarta

The first direct presidential election on July 5 was as peaceful and democratic as the April 5 legislative election. It shows the growing political maturity of the Indonesian people. Indonesians should be proud of this. Indonesia's budding democracy has moved up a notch in its consolidation toward a mature democracy.

Two presidential candidates from among the five are almost certain to move into the second and final round of the elections to be held on Sept. 20. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Megawati Soekarnoputri, gained around 33 percent and 26 percent of the vote respectively.

Susilo and Jusuf Kalla are supposedly the more popular team and in polls conducted before the elections they even gained 49 percent of popular support, which declined in the last two weeks before the elections. By contrast, Megawati, whose party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) took a beating in the legislative elections, sliding from 34 percent in 1999 to 19 percent in 2004, and scored only about 12 percent in the opinion polls, made a turn around and instead got 26 percent of the vote in the first round.

Megawati has not been a hands-on leader during her three-year term, and some real problems were not tackled seriously, such as unemployment and corruption. But she has been able to lay down some of the fundamentals for future development. She has stabilized the macro-economic fundamentals of the economy (inflation, foreign exchange, fiscal deficit, current account) which is a prerequisite for economic stability and to enable the private sector, the market as well as the autonomous regions to promote economic activities in the micro-sectors.

Economic growth has stabilized at around 4 percent. This is not adequate, but sufficient to lay down a healthy basis for future development. She also has overcome many conflicts in society and the regions. The fervor for "revolution" has calmed down and the threats of global terrorism have been dealt with quietly, consistently and persistently with the assistance of the international community. Religious extremism, which became widespread after the demise of Soeharto, has been restrained. Except for the Aceh conflict, and the dissatisfaction in West Papua, the conflicts in Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Maluku and anarchy in the streets of Java, have been mostly overcome.

Although she is not known to be a strong reformist, Megawati is able to nudge and move democracy, by refraining from imposing and regulating or engineering political developments in society. Instead, she has allowed a "thousand flowers to bloom". But, of course, these achievements, while substantial are also far from adequate. Corruption is rampant, even among her closest assistants. Labor relations have deteriorated due to the policies of the incompetent minister from her party. The consistency in the implementation of the rule of law has been questioned and the judicial system is mired in corruption. Foreign investment is not coming because of the uncertainties in the above areas. Furthermore, she has not been willing to lead openly and directly, and bring the issues to the people to solicit their support in tackling them.

With only 26 percent support, in order to win in the second round, she has to change her leadership and her team. It will not be adequate to simply make deals with other parties, such as Golkar, United Development Party (PPP), National Awakening Party (PKB), and others to form a coalition. First, these parties are fractured, as shown in the first round of the election. Even if some succeed in consolidating, the leadership of these parties no longer have the necessary power and influence to mobilize the masses.

Megawati has to come out and become decisive. For that, she has to reach out to the Indonesian people herself, as she had done when she faced Soeharto and Habibie in 1998 and 1999. She has to show empathy for the people's sufferings again and be humble enough to recognize her earlier shortcomings.

In addition, she has to demonstrate leadership by removing some of her corrupt assistants. She must bring in a new team that is clean, compact, capable and trusted by the people and should announce this before the second round starts.

It should be noted that very important reformist groups and minorities are gravitating back to Megawati's leadership. Civil society also looks to her because she is the only civilian leader who is a democrat. They have great difficulty accepting and trusting a (former) general who has been groomed for 30 years by Soeharto and his regime, surrounding himself with mostly military people who only have one term of reference in their life, namely solving political problems by force, especially military force. It has to be recognized that Susilo is not an ex-general that was shaped under civilian supremacy over the military like Eisenhower or even De Gaulle.

Chinese-Indonesians are also not in favor of the military that they see as having abused them. They are also concerned with the perceived anti-foreigner, including Chinese-Indonesians, sentiments of Jusuf Kalla, Susilo's running mate. He is seen as a proponent of a bumiputra policy as practiced in Malaysia. Chinese-Indonesians will no longer accept overt and covert economic discrimination.

In fact, if Indonesia is ever to regain its economic dynamism, it should accept the role and participation of the Chinese- Indonesians as being in the mainstream and not at the periphery of development. Their dynamism, expertise and networking in East Asia could be a constructive contribution to the nation's economic development. This has also happened in the political life of Indonesian society that has brought the Muslims to the fore in promoting a democratic Indonesia. The last two elections (1999 and 2004) have shown this to be the case, and Indonesia can be proud of this.

The Christians feel rather uncomfortable with Susilo and Kalla because of their relations and activities with Muslims on the right side of the political spectrum such as Yusril Ihza Mahendra's Crescent Star Party (PBB), which is a proponent of the implementation of sharia by the state.

These groups do not represent a large portion of the vote, but they have some influence in public opinion. They have always been harbingers of change in society.

The big question then is whether Megawati is willing to change her leadership, her policies and her team. We will have to wait and see what will happen in the next few weeks. She should recognize that she cannot simply rely on her "beliefs". She is facing a serious survival problem. But she has a chance, because for the average Indonesian the choice is between somebody you know, despite all the limitations, and someone you don't know with the risk of an uncertain future direction for the country. The alternative, Susilo is also not a strong leader and is known to be encircled by a group of military leaders. Democracy is thus at stake. In addition, Susilo's vice presidential candidate has been tainted by anti-foreigner and anti-Chinese sentiments.

The writer is cofounder and member of the board of trustees of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).